Anyone good at calculating odds? Israel lottery draws same numbers twice

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I know the odds of a particular set of numbers coming up are always the same, regardless of whether those numbers came up in the past. But is it possible to calculate the odds of it happening twice in two drawings?

Israel lottery draws same numbers twice in a month

Sun Oct 17, 12:35 PM

By The Associated Press

JERUSALEM - Now that's a lucky number.

For the second time in a month, Israel's biweekly national lottery produced the same winning combination: 13, 14, 26, 32, 33 and 36.

The results of Saturday night's (Oct. 16) draw were identical to those of Sept. 21.

[mike_c]

1. if I'm not mistaken, it's the odds of that number happening once, squared...

i.e. if x = the probability of drawing some number once

then the probability of drawing it twice is x²

on edit-- in the case of lotteries, I think the situation is complicated by the manner of drawing. The probability of drawing one 12 digit number, for example, is not the same as the probability of drawing six 2 digit numbers in the same order, that is:

the probability of drawing 132585723933 is not the same as that of drawing 13, 25, 85, 72, 39, 33 in that specific order. Having started to try to figure this out, I realize it's going to take more time than I want to devote to it, so I'm copping out now....

[RandomThoughts]

2. That is not the correct equation.

The odds of drawing any number is the same as the lottery. The odds of drawing some date number again is the same as the odds of wining the lottery.

If you say what are the odds of today's draw matching any of the last 50 draws, the odds are 50 times more likely. If you then add that the match on the second part can contain any draw also, then it is even more likely.

So having 1 draw match 2nd draw is like the lottery wining the lottery. Same odds of wining the lottery.

Having 1 draw match any of last 50 draws is 50 times more likely.

Having any draw over some set of draws, match any other draw in that sequence is even more likely by an added power of 2.