Mathemagicians / Statistitians...

[Fire Walk With Me]

A quick question if I may...what are the precise odds of getting six right out of six, if it were =completely= a game of chance, no way for the subject to know the correct answers beforehand, or to be influenced in any fashion toward any correct answers?

[Dr. Strange]

1. Need more info.

If each question has two options, the probability of getting all six correct is 1/64.
If each question has three options, then it's 1/3^6.
If question i has c_i choices, then it's 1/(c₁c₂c₃c₄c₅c₆).
If the number of choices of one of the questions is infinite, then the probability is zero.
If the number of choices is an imaginary number, then I'm gonna need some hyperbolic geometry.

Note: these are probabilities--not odds.

[Rabrrrrrr]

2. Six what right of six what?

If the game is "guess which 900-digit number I'm thinking of", the odds of getting six in a row right are basically impossible.

if it's "guess how the coin will land", the odds of guessing correctly six times in a row are low, but not out of the realm of possibility by any means.

if you're asking the same question with the same answer six times in a row, and it's an easy question, the odds are just about 100%.

[Fire Walk With Me]

3. Cool, thanks mon.

It's more of the "guess which number" type of situation.

:hi:

[pokerfan]

4. It depends on the probability of each trial

and whether or not they are truly independent. If the probability of each independent trial is p then the total probability of five events is p⁵.

Not trying to hijack the thread but the Doors song, 'Five to One' has always bugged me:

Five to one, baby
One in five

Morrison is conflating probability with odds. If the odds are 5:1, then the probability is 1 in 6. If the probability is 1 in 5, then the odds are 4:1 against.

[Systematic Chaos]

5. And I'm sure, being a gambler, that you can appreciate the differing terms on craps tables.

When I was still a dealer, if I had a nickel for every time someone commented on "10 for 1" being a better bet than "9 to 1," I'd be getting those tax cuts for the rich.

[pokerfan]

6. You don't need a lot of advanced math to play the game

but it helps to have a little understanding of the basic probability theory. I am constantly shocked at how poorly some players grasp fundamental concepts. One guy I run into quite a bit believes that 'eights' are more likely than any other rank followed by 'nines' and 'sevens' and Aces and deuces being the least likely cards. It took me a while to understand what he was saying but it turned out that he was applying craps probabilities to Hold'em. :banghead: Yes, in craps a 'seven' is more likely than any other roll but that's because there are more ways to roll a seven than say, an eleven. In a deck of cards, an eight is no more likely to show up than any other card. I didn't correct him, of course. I just nodded sagely and filed that little tidbit away to use against him in the future, i.e. he's more likely to hold onto middle ranks.

[RandomThoughts]

7. You show your hand.

Your intent is to use things against people, not for people.

Your action of usage against someone in the future is irrelevant by your intent.


I have many things that could be seen as negative, but don't post them, why is that?

[pokerfan]

8. ?

Not following you.

[HERVEPA]

9. join the club

[Rabrrrrrr]

10. No worries - Random Thoughts' name is well chosen.

barely, if it all, decipherable posts because they are, truly, random thoughts randomly strung together with an entirely haughty disinclination to ever attempt to explain context or intent.

[Tuesday Afternoon]

11. and for some reason he is due

beer and travel money.