Is the House out of reach?

[zorkpolitics]

The current Rothenberg Report has an analysis of Senate, House and Governor races. A subscription is needed to see the analysis, but all the competitive House races are listed at the free site.

http://www.rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/

As of Jan 10, only 17 Republican and 15 Democratic seats are listed as competitive! With such a small number of competitive seats it is unlikely the Democrats can win control of the House. Unfortunately, given the new TX redistricting the Republicans may actually expand their control.

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. I'[m going to go completely against all

common sense

I feel that the Democrats, in spite of their best efforst NOT TO win, will.

If the elections are clean I smell a sweep of many a Repuke, as people will show and vote straight democratic tickets

This has happened in the past...

Look at the race for the WH in 1931.. when FDR was elected, so was the control of the House and the Senate... and the pundits were just as shocked

The other example is 1800, better known as the SECOND American Revolution.

This is what is in the works and will catch the pundits by surprise

SO get cracking and register voters.. if we get oh another million will be good, I smell more than just a million

[LimpingLib]

4. Problem is that districts are rigged.

www.fairvote.org desperatly needs your attention.

The House races are very different than any other type of race.

[TakebackAmerica]

2. zork,

Here's my look at the House.




The Top House Races of 2004.

Endangered Republican Incumbents
Anne Northup- Kentucky 3rd Congressional District 52-48 50-48 Gore
Highly Competitive:

Since her 1996 election, she has survived three Democratic onslaughts. For the 2002 campaign, Democrats recruited Jack Conway. He ran an aggressive campaign against Rep. Northup. Despite being outspent 2-1, Conway was able to keep this race close throughout. Northup hammered Conway on his close ties to embattled Governor Paul Patton. On Election Day 2002, she won a narrow victory, 52-48. Her fundraising prowess has helped her hold on to the only Democratic leaning district in Kentucky. This is the only district in Kentucky that Gore carried, and it has a sizeable black and union population. If Democrats put up a strong candidate, they will be in a solid position to reclaim this district.

Update: Jack Conway turned down a rematch with Northup. It now appears Lt. Governor Steven Henry is likely to run for this seat. Also Tony Miller has announced he will run. Miller is a proven vote getter in Louisville. This was be Northup’s closest race.

John Hostettler- Indiana 8th Congressional District 51-46 56-42 Bush
Highly Competitive:

Indiana’s 8th Congressional District was named the “Bloody Eighth” because of its reputation of close elections stemming back to 1984 when Frank McCloskey beat Richard McIntyre by 4 votes, 116,645 to 116,641. This district is the epitome of a swing district. According to the “2002 Almanac of American Politics,” this district at one point during the 1970s elected four congressmen in four successive elections. Since 1994, Rep. Hostettler has survived four close reelection bids. Yet Hostettler has raised a mere $5,018. He is the exact opposite of Northrup, having been out- spent, in two of his last three races. Rep. Hostettler has grown accustom to the close elections in the district. Expect this race to be heavily targeted by Democrats, who have a top notch candidate in Jon Jennings.

Most Vulnerable Republican Freshman

Max Burns- Georgia 12th Congressional District 55-45 54-45 Gore
Highly Competitive:

The father of Max Burns’ opponent, State Senate Majority Leader Charles Walker Sr., created this district for his son, much to the dismay of the voters. Rep. Burns was able to use voter dissatisfaction with Democratic redistricting and President Bush’s popularity to his advantage. On Election Day, Charles Walker Jr. and his father were defeated. The perception of Democratic gerrymandering haunted Georgia Democrats that year. This is the only district in Georgia that Al Gore won that is represented by a non black Democrat. Rep. Burns would be extremely vulnerable against a strong well-financed opponent. This predominantly Democratic district is the wrong place for a conservative like Max Burns. Rep. Burns is the weakest Republican incumbent in America.


Rick Renzi - Arizona 1st Congressional District 49-46 51-46 Bush
Highly Competitive:
Update: Change from Competitive to Highly Competitive
This is a classic swing district. Rep. Renzi dodged a bullet when Steve Udall was upset in the Democratic primary by George Cordova. National democrats were disappointed at Udall’s defeat and were slow to give to Cordova. Rep. Renzi outspent Cordova 2-1. Republicans also poured over four million dollars into this race. Renzi was bolstered by a last minute visit by President Bush. After all the money Republicans spent and Bush’s visit, Renzi only won by 49-46. The result of the election showed how close this swing district really is. If Steve Udall runs, or another strong Democrat gets into this race, it could quickly become one of the closest House races in America. Update: It now appears that Paul Babbitt, Bruce Babbitt’s brother, will run against Rep. Renzi. This development could provide Democrats with the top notch candidate they have sought.

Bob Beauprez - Colorado 7th Congressional district 47-47 47-47 Bush
Highly Competitive:

Rep. Bob Beauprez was elected congressman in 2002 by 121 votes, the closest margin that year. The 7th Congressional District is considered by political experts to be the most evenly split House seat in America. In 2003 The GOP controlled state Legislature and the Republican Governor passed a Re-redistricting plan that would shore up this district for Beauprez. This issue is currently being decided by the courts. Update: The courts have thrown out a GOP plan thant would have made this district safely republican. Expect another down to wire election.


Endangered Democratic Incumbents

Dennis Moore- Kansas 3rd Congressional District 50-47 53-42 Bush

Highly Competitive:
The sole Democratic congressman in Kansas is highly endangered. After two close reelection bids, expect Republicans to go aggressively after this district. Against heavy underdog former Air Force pilot Adam Taff, Rep. Moore won by only 50-47. This moderate suburban Republican district is a misfit for a liberal Democrat like Moore. There have been bitter Republican primaries in the last two elections. They have pitted a moderate, electable Republican against an ideological conservative. In both elections the more conservative was chosen over the moderate. If Republicans avoid their annual primary bloodbath and nominate a moderate, this could be the year the Republicans defeat Rep. Moore.


Jim Matheson- Utah 2nd Congressional District 50-49 67-31 Bush

Highly Competitive:
In 2000 Rep. Matheson defeated Republican Derek Smith who had upset embattled Republican incumbent Merrill Cook in the Primary.
Republicans radically changed the lines in this district, taking out most of the metro Salt Lake City areas. On the heels of their successful redistricting, Republicans recruited John Swallow to run against Rep. Matheson.
In a race that went down to the wire, Matheson prevailed by 2,015 votes out of 214,961.If the Republicans have a strong candidate, expect this once again to be one of the tightest races in America.



Most Vulnerable Democratic Freshmen

Rodney Alexander- Louisiana 5th Congressional district 50-50 57-40 Bush

Highly Competitive:
On November 5th, Lee Fletcher defeated Clyde Holloway 24.5 -23.0 to move on to the run-off. Former frontrunner Holloway was still bitter after his loss. He staged a press conference to bash Fletcher, saying, “He is not what this state needs. ….He will do anything to win and he scares me.” One week before the election, a Mason-Dixon poll showed Lee Fletcher leading Rodney Alexander 48-40. On December 7, Rodney Alexander, in a major upset, defeated Lee Fletcher 50.3 -49.7. The increased black turnout due to Sen. Mary Landrieu close re-election battle may have carried Alexander over the top. Republicans are expected to heavily target this race. Bush carried this predominantly conservative district by 21 points in 2000 and with Bush on top of the ticket could make this race too close to call.





Jim Marshall- Georgia 3rd Congressional district 50-50 51-47 Bush

Highly Competitive:
Despite being outspent 2-1, Marshall eked out a victory over Calder Clay III 50.5 -49.5. This was after Democratic redistricters tried to move as many minority voters into swing districts as possible. This was followed by a surge of outrage from voters. They promptly defeated Governor Roy Barnes, electing the first Republican governor in Georgia in 128 years, unseating Senator Max Cleland. The Speaker of the House and the Senate Majority Leader were both swept away in the GOP tide. They elected Phil Gingery and Max Burns to districts specially redistricted for Democrats. Rep. Marshall was lucky escape the Republican tide that had enveloped so many of the state’s Democrats. Bush narrowly carried this swing district, 51-47. Expect this to be one of the top 10 house races of 2004.







Races to Watch

Earl Pomeroy: Last year he narrowly survived his first close challenge in years. The only congressman in a Republican state, Rep Pomeroy is very vulnerable to a Republican challenge. North Dakota’s all Democratic Delegation will eventually end and Pomeroy could be the first of the Democratic trio to go. In 2000 Bush won 62- 33 this could be an omen that Rep. Pomeroy’s days are numbered.
Ken Lucas: Kentucky’s lone Democrat, Rep. Lucas, keeps Kentucky’s tradition of electing at least one Democrat since 1828 alive. But in a district that voted Bush by an overwhelming margin, 61-37 Rep. Lucas will always have tough fights. This district is so conservative that in 2000 despite outspending his opponent buy more than 9-1 he only won 54-44. Once he retires or is defeated Democrats will be hard pressed to regain this district.
Update: Ken Lucas announced that he will not run for reelection, In a bizarre twist, Nick Clooney, George Clooney’s father announced he will run for Lucas’s seat.
Tim Holden: Republican redistricters eliminated Rep. Holden’s district put him in unknown conservative territory and pitted him against veteran GOP congressman George Gekas. Though Bush won this district by 56-41 this turned out to be a terrible mistake for the Republicans. Gekas had not been in an election battle since he was first elected. Gekas seemed stiff and did not campaign well. While Holden knocked doors and ran a strong and aggressive campaign. Despite the GOP sweep, Holden squeaked through on Election Day, 51-49
Tim Bishop: On July 17 1999 Rep. Mike Forbes shocked everyone by announcing that he would switch parties and become a Democrat. This set into motion one of the weirdest two election cycles in recent history. Democrats immediately embraced Forbes’ decision as an omen of the Democrats retaking the House in 2000. But the National Republican Congressional Committee wisely ran ads and put up bulletins calling Forbes an extremist. Local Democrats wary of Forbes did not fully support him and instead backed Regina Seltzer. Mrs. Seltzer on Primary Day, September 12 2000, in a stunning upset, defeated Rep. Forbes by 35 votes out of12,119 votes cast. The GOP celebrated and their nominee Felix Grucci coasted to an easy victory 56-41. Grucci lead his opponent by 30 points in polls just six weeks before the election. Grucci ran a negative ad that miserably backfired. Tim Bishop blasted him with ads attacking his environmental record. On Election Day 2002, Tim Bishop upset Felix Grucci 51-49. Who knows if 2004 will bring another bizarre election?


Competitive Republican Districts;
Rep. Steve Pearce (NM-2), Rep. Mike Rogers (AL-3), John Kline (MN-2),
Rep. Jim Gerlach (PA-6), Rep. Robin Hayes (NC-8), Rep. Bill Janklow (SD-1),
Rep. Shelly Moore Capito (WV-2), Rep. Jim Leach (IA-2), Rep. Chris Chocola (IN-2)
Rep. Henry Bonilla (TX-23) < If GOP Re-redistricting is upheld by the courts this becomes safe Republican territory.> Rep. Phil Gingery (GA-11), Rep. Rob Simmons (CT-2)
Rep. Tom Latham (IA-4), Rep Lee Terry (NE-2)

Races to keep an eye on:
Special Elections

Open Seat (KY-6) (R) Rep. Ernie Fletcher was elected governor defeating Attorney General Ben Chandler 55-45. Chandler is expected to run. The special election will be held early next year.

Update : Special election will be held on February 17, 2004
Update 2 : Ben Chandler will run.


Open Seat (SD-1) (R) Rep. Bill Janklow is facing political oblivion. Democrats pick up will pick up this district if John Thune doesn’t run. Stephanie Herseth is a strong candidate for Democrats.
Update: Janklow has been convicted of manslaughter.
Update 2 : Janklow will resign on January 20, 2004
Update 3 : Special election will be held on June 1,2004



Possible Special Elections:
Open Seat (LA-7) (D) Now that Kathleen Blanco has been elected governor, rumors on capital hill are that Sen. John Breaux will retire to make way for Rep. Chris John to be appointed senator. This district went 55 percent for Bush in 2000, but Louisiana usually will pick moderate Democrats over conservative Republicans



2004 races

Open Seat (LA-3) (R) Rep. Billy Tauzin may resign to become head of the Motion Picture Association of America. This is a prime pickup opportunity, as this is the second most Democratic district in Louisiana.

Open Seat (WA-5) (R) Rep. George Nethercutt is leaving his House seat to run against Senator Patty Murray. Democrats have united around Business man Don Barbieri.

Rep. Heather Wilson (NM-1) (R) (State Senate Pro Term Richard Romero is seeking a rematch with Wilson. The threat of New Mexico’s Democratic Legislature Re-redistricting could make Wilson even more vulnerable.

(R-WY-AL

Open Seat (CO-3)
This is another possible pickup for Democrats .

Open Seat (R-PA15)
Open Seat (R-NE1),
Indiana
Rep. Baron Hill (IN-9),
Rep. Chris Chocola (IN-2)
Competitive Democratic Districts

Rep. Mike Michaud (ME-2) , Rep. Baron Hill (IN-9), Open Seat (PA-13) Lincoln Davis (TN-

Democrats targeted by the GOP Re-redistricting plan in Texas
Rep. Chris Bell
Rep. Lloyd Dogget
Rep. Chet Edwards
Rep. Martin Frost
Rep. Ralph Hall –Became a Republican
Rep. Max Sandlin
Rep. Charlie Stenholm
Rep. Jim Turner- Retired

[mndemocrat_29]

3. On the House

First off, one thing that we do have going for us is the low retirement rate. Since Democratic incumbents are much more prone to staying in the House, this is a good thing. Additionally, not many Democratic incumbents appear extraordinarily vulnerable this year (Texas aside).

That said, we'll have much more trouble gaining back the House than the Senate, particularly because of recruitment. I'm waiting for the dust to settle from the Texas filings, but several of the following could be pickups (I know that a couple of those listed are listed every year, but we NEED to win them):

KY-3
KY-6
SD-AL
CT-2
CO-3
CO-7
AZ-1
GA-12
GA-11
Either New Hampshire seat
Either New Mexico seat

We'll need to keep a few Texas seats, but wins by Ben Chandler and Stephanie Herseth make our chances much, much better for Speaker Pelosi. However, we'll need to recruit some more in order to take back the House, targeting seats such as WA-5, PA-15, NJ-7 or PA-4 (Possibly newly Democratic Barbara Hafer could run?) to take back the House

[blm]

5. It depends on the top of the ticket.

.