Clark Surges in N.H.

[Jack_Dawson]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3956110/

Nice work, General.


:bounce:

[Larkspur]

1. Let's see, Clark missed 2 Prez debates to campaign in NH

when his rivals weren't there or there long enough to focus on NH, I'd say Clark's surge is based upon hyperventilation than actual support. The NH polls all show that Clark's support is SOFT.

Clark has proven that when the campaign heat rises, he melts. Remember, he entered the Prez race with a media hyped bubble and that has fissled. Clark is fine as long as his competitors are not hammering away at him.

He should enjoy this moment because after Iowa, he'll have lots of competition coming after him.

[Sagan]

2. oh, nonsense...

I like both Clark and Dean. I refuse to buy into this fratricidal relationship that so many of their supporters seem to get off on.

Anyone can see that the whole thing is going to be between these two. These two men are the best hope of the Democratic Party moving forward and away from its failed policy of appeasement of corporations and the reich-wing.

We need BOTH of them.

[kayleybeth]

3. Well said, Sagan

Thanks! :hi:

[montanacowboy]

5. Thank you LSagan

my thoughts exactly - Clark/Dean or Dean/Clark - a win win

[Lisa0825]

9. Thank you sagan!!!

I agree!

[BootinUp]

18. Hear hear! We do need both of them!

It would be a huge shame if one of them disappears after the convention. I believe both can play a strong role in the democratic party going forward, even if they are not on the same ticket.

[Cheswick2.0]

32. oh nonsense

I must have missed the posts where you patronizingly chastise some Clark supporter's post.
We don't need Clark. There are plenty of Democrats with real credentials to run with Dean. I don't believe for a minute Dean would choose to run with Clark.

[Rowdyboy]

4. Excellent, excellent article....

This article was written before the recent rise for Clark and decline for Dean in ARG (now standing at 32%-22%). That's three polls I've seen today showing a tightening race in New Hampshire, two putting Dean And Clark in single digits. I'll be thrilled with a strong second place! Beyond that, I won't speculate.

Interesting point: evidently New Hampshire Democrats (who are known for their political acumen) don't seem to buy the "Clark is a Republican nyah nyah nyah". Would really be especially nice to see this nonsense and the other attacks backfire.

[LuminousX]

6. Good Job, Clark

Before people think I'm flaming Wes, I want to point out that I've praised his tactics in this primary.

The fact of the matter is, though, much like Trippi describes it:

“He’s been shooting free throws by himself on one end of the court while we’ve been throwing elbows at each other at the other end,” Trippi said.

It is a brutally effective tactic on Clark's part, because Dean, Kerry, Gephardt, etc. had already invested themselves in Iowa. By avoiding Iowa, Clark avoided the elbows and scuffles. While the rest of the candidate arrive in New Hampshire bruised and fatiqued, Clark gets to face them fresh with no recent massive attacks launched against him.

It would be a bit unwise to claim that this is a surge. This is merely a vacuum being filled. Again, I applaud the strategy, because some of those who are now softly supporting Clark will stick with Clark. I say it is unwise because if Clark's numbers reverse, you are going to get a lot of people questioning his 'support,' but if you adopt the line of reasoning I'm presenting the explanation is clear, it is just because the competition returned to New Hampshire and some of that soft support is drying up, which doesn't matter because Clark reaped the benefit of two weeks of time getting to know New Hampshire better.

Of course my suggestion to the Dean campaign is to tap into the grassroots organization and keep Clark pinned down with annoying attacks until the main battle force can descend into New Hampshire. You can't allow Clark to become too rested, too 'at ease' or else he attains the mantle of inevitability.

I for one think the polls don't accurately reflect Clark's support I believe he is the front runner.

[jmaier]

7. Nice post overall

I agree that Wes Clark's NH flanking strategy is an excellent one considering the organizational handicap he faced with a late campaign start. Dean and Kerry surrogates are probably well advised to keep the heat on Clark in NH though using the "He's a republican" theme is probably a tactical mistake. Why?

NH voters are pretty savvy and pretty independent. Given his past votes for Clinton/Clinton/Gore and his position on the issues it isn't going to sell outside a limited highly partisan crowd. It just doesn't pass the "sniff test". Also, I bet quite a few of those independent minded voters heading to the democratic primary polls in NH also voted Reagan and Bush I so it's slamming them as well.

A final note: I seriously doubt that Wes Clark can be considered the "front-runner" in NH, but if so, it doesn't say much for the long, long campaigns in NH of the New England candidates. It is a nice job, though, of trying to reset expectations for Gov Dean's NH performance. :-)

[LuminousX]

8. I want to be perfectly clear

If Dean doesn't win New Hampshire, it will be a big blow to his campaign. Much of his support elsewhere in this country blossomed because of his amazing lead in New Hampshire against Kerry who was the first person expected to walk away with the Granite State.

Dean needs New Hampshire for the momentum. When I said Wes was probably the front-runner, I meant nationally. I think he is, for most people, the perfect default candidate. When the campaigning reaches their neighborhoods, though, they will alter their opinions. Before Wesley got much attention, I think Dean was the default candidate. No one wants to say they are supporting the Senator/Representative... that seems too cliche.

I also agree that if the only heat Dean and Kerry are going to apply to Clark is the Republican issue, they are screwed. I don't think that would work anywhere. Look, California elected a Republican governor. When the rubber meets the road, people don't care about party affiliation, they only care about the image and overall message. Clark carries a great image and a message that sounds good to a lot of people.

[jmaier]

10. I don't disagree with anything

you said except for Dean being screwed if he's 2nd in NH. I agree that it changes the dynamics substantially but what I'm beginning to suspect is that Dean isn't going to be derailed by narrow losses, he'll simply go on and keep being 1-2-3 in most, if not all, subsequent primaries. He has the supporters, the cash, the campaign team and motivation to keep fighting.

If both Dean and Clark remain strong and one other candidate continues to place with delegates in most primaries then we are looking at no clear winner and a lot of behind the scenes maneuvering. Hopefully, whatever brokering ends up taking place happens pre-convention so that we can get on with the race against the evil-doers in the WH. I'd hate to see us go into July with no presumptive nominee.

[LuminousX]

11. I fully agree

What I mean by Dean 'being screwed' is suddenly it turns into a state by state battle and we may go well into March without a winner. I also hope that if there is backroom maneuvering it happens before the convention. I'd like to see our candidate rocket out of the convention with a score of blistering attack ads against Bush (527's if not the campaign's.)

[BootinUp]

19. Sound analysis

You have obviously given this some thought. Nice post.

[funky_bug]

15. I tend to agree

I was discussing this surge with my husband today and came to the conclusion that part of that surge is due to the fact that other candidates have been focusing on Iowa while Clark has been focusing his attention on NH. Quite possibly (and only time will tell), we may see Clark drop when the other candidates hit town.

On the flip side, many people will form their initial opinions, and once formed will be resistant to changing their minds.

Whether or not it was a brilliant strategy remains to be seen. Polls are encouraging, but they are not votes. We need to focus on keeping the issues to the front, and the save the polls for our own private pats on the back.

[BurnInHellFoxNews]

12. Clark's secret weapon

Man, did those sweater purchases pay off big time.

[SahaleArm]

13. Weezer will be playing at his next event...

Headliner will the Sweater Song :7

[neverforget]

30. Love your name!

And welcome to DU! :hi:

[Jack_Dawson]

14. The General is on Fire

Did you see him on CNN today? Masterful.

www.us4clark.com

[mmonk]

16. yes

This staying in NH is an excellent strategy. The people of New Hampshire get to know him while the others battle each other at the Iowa caucuses. Hope he gets the momentum and attention to make this a good campaign.

[cindyw]

17. Congratulations to Clark

May not be my first choice, but I like him.

Oh and thanks Clark for bringing Dean down in the polls because it will help Kerry too when he gets his bump from Iowa. Imagine if NH became a 3-way race between Dean, Clark and Kerry.

[BootinUp]

20. Voters are so fickle

Looking at the ARG poll, Dean down, Kerry and Clark up. Just seems voters can change their mind in the blink of an eye. One attack ad and they have found a new savior.

[windansea]

21. TANK baby!!

man this primary is getting interesting...Iowa is tight as a tick and now NH...I'm just glad it looks like a real contest and may the best man win...

[Clark4VotingRights]

22. There was tons of good news for Clark today.

And no friggen Primary forum to post it in!!!

Ah, the fates are cruel.

x( x( x( x( x( x(

[John_H]

23. I hate to say I told y'all so, but all through Oct, and Nov, I screamed

every opportunity that the numbers wouldn't be meaningful until the second week of January when the media starts hammering the primary into "normal" people's consciousnesses.

The good news is that when rank and file dem voters begin to pay attention, Clark surges and Dean is falls. Could it be that non-activists understand what zealots apparently do not--that we need to nominate someone that can beat Bush?

[Eurobabe]

24. he'll make an extraordinary president....

Hi John! ;) -Crozet

[MoonRiver]

25. Yep, the voters know a winner and leader when they see one!

Clark can and will beat the bush*!!

Gooooooo General Clark!!!

[Feanorcurufinwe]

26. Dean's unfavorable rating at an all time high and going up

The Channel 7/Suffolk poll also found Dean's popularity waning a bit, with his favorable rating slipping from 66 percent in December to 56 percent in the latest survey. Over the same period, his unfavorable rating rose from 20 percent to 31 percent.

"It's really spiked," said Suffolk University adjunct professor and pollster David Paleologos. "That's the first time we've seen his unfavorable rating that high. That's clearly due to the fact that he's been the target of all the other candidates since he's been the frontrunner."

Each of the other candidates saw their favorable rating rise, with Clark, Kerry, Lieberman, North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, Rep. Dick Gephardt, D-Mo., registering double-digit increases. Clark's was the highest at 63 percent.
http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20040114/APN/401140819

[Clark Can WIN]

28. I would argue with the good professor this point

" That's clearly due to the fact that he's been the target of all the other candidates "

NO. It is due to his demeanor, his mouth and his attacks on others (all the while crying to principal McCauliffe to make everybody be nice to him)

[Clark Can WIN]

27. These numbers will only continue to get better as Deans softer support

drains away and a clearer picture of who remains viable emerges. Clark is in a better position to pick up more support from candidates who have dropped off as well.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=676&e=4&u=/usatoday/20040114/ts_usatoday/deanhashurdlesafteriowanh

[MoonRiver]

29. Clark is the genuine article.

He can save our country from the hideous bush*ies, and probably produce a presidential record surpassing the best in American history.

Here's another :kick: for General Clark!

[meow mix]

31. if dean looks weak in iowa

and then loses nh, he's toast. yay for toast!