why Dean supporters should not despair over Iowa numbers

[CMT]

First, congrats to Kerry supporters. JK has never given up and I salute him for his tenacity. He is right in the thick of this thing in Iowa.

But my message is to my fellow Dean supporters. Don't despair over the most recent Zogby tracking poll giving Kerry a 1-point lead. Zogby polls are based on three day rolling averages. The poll today is based on results from Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Zogby has already said earlier this week that Monday was Dean's absolute low with Dean behind Kerry by SEVEN points or 25-18 percent. But yet in todays results Dean is only 1-point behind. This means that on Tuesday and Wednesday when Dean's counter-attack went into effect that Dean was gaining steadily to cut a 7-point advantage for Kerry on Monday to a 1-point advantage for Kerry today.

So lets keep our chins up and just keep working hard. Dean is on the rebound. Monday was a bad day after a less than stellar debate performances and all the coverage of Sharpton's attack on Dean.

Today, Carol Mosley Braun endorses the Doctor and he has been receiving a slew of endorsements from the Congressional Black Caucus and Latino Caucus and he showed that he is no loser with minorities by a handy win in the DC primary.

The Doctor is definitely still IN.

[Renew Deal]

1. You might want to edit that

and add in NH numbers too.

[LuminousX]

2. How does that relate to Iowa numbers?

[KaraokeKarlton]

4. Dean is doing fine in NH

The polls use a majority of Democrats for their sample and Democrats are the minority in NH. Independents are the majority. Less of those voters are being polled and they support Dean at a rate higher than they do all the other candidates. :D

[Renew Deal]

6. You sound like the Iraqi Information Minister

There are no americans within 100 miles of Baghdad.

[mouse7]

10. don't forget John Kerry "I was against the invasion of Iraq"

Was right outta the mouth of him too.

[Jerseycoa]

17. Oh, Bleachers

:7

[Kahuna]

7. He is. But he's also one more gaffe away to political obscurity.

nt

[LuminousX]

15. The one guarantee is, Dean won't become politically obscure

When you shatter fundraising records, each election cycle will compare the candidate to Dean. Dean's grassroots organization will be the model for many future campaigns. It may even be referred to as the Dean Model. PoliSci textbooks are being written based on this campaign.

Dean might lose, but he will be with us for a very long time.

[lurk_no_more]

24. Why is it always money

that seems to be a dean supporters claim in his superiority over the others? True the money has been a big factor in deans negativity, but it hasn't really seemed to help in his numbers in a positive way.

If money were the deciding factor, shouldn't dean be untouchable? And is this negativity deans only drawing card in fund raising? To me it seems pretty pathetic to donate money just to see how much mud dean can buy.

Since many here want to hold the belief that Clark is not a Democrat because of past voting, I say he's more of a Democrat than some of the others by his refusal to eat his own the Republican way. A true Republican will eat his own almost as readily as they'll eat the opposition.

I support Clark, both with money and time and to me his positive ads are using my money better than to trash others within the party and saving the negativity for bush.

I guess it's how you see your money being spent by the one you support that shows just who you really are, you can support mud slinging to show who you really are, or you can support winning on merit and principle and show just who you are.


And then there were none!
” JAFO”

[David Dunham]

21. Josh Marshall: Dean Is Falling Measurably In IA and NH

Josh Marshall, noting Dean's continuing falls in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, writes today:

"The common denominator seems pretty clear: Dean's support is falling -- not precipitously, but measurably -- and at least some Dean supporters appear to be going to his near rivals in each state."

[Larkspur]

29. Marshall is a Clark backer, so I'm not surprised at his tone

Marshall never liked Dean, so when he talks about Dean and Dean's supporters, I read it with a big grain of salt.

[CMT]

5. we will see won't we

So far Dean is the only one who has won anything this primary season in DC. You can't dispute that if Dean was 7-points behind on Monday he must have been gaining steadily on Tuesday and Wednesday when his coutner attack went into effect to be only one-point down today. Tomorrows results should be interesting.

[Democrats unite]

12. To bad it doesn't coun't

disinformation Again.

[CMT]

13. you don't make much sense

so if Kerry was seven points ahead monday and is 1-point ahead today in a three day rolling poll--who was gaining Tuesday and Wednesday? Dean.

[cthrumatrix]

3. it's the deliberate media attack that is so transparent .... they want

to pick a candidate now ...and in the gen. election.

If somebody pulled the number of "negative" stories run on each candidate. I'm sure it's slams on Dean by a wide margin.

They don't focus on message... they thrive on reporting fights..they divide the party unity by reporting non-stop polls.

The candidates and the people are in each state...let the people pick who they want.

[Padraig18]

8. You are correct.

Gov. Dean has survived the worst they have to throw at him, and his numbers are going back up. This is a one-day phenomenon.

[Renew Deal]

9. Where is there proof his numbers are going up?

They are down in NH, down in IA, down nationally (over a 3 week period).

[Renew Deal]

11. You might want to edit that even more.

There are new national numbers.

[CMT]

14. so what?

right now I'm concentrating on Iowa and NH.

I really wonder what some of you die harders are going to do if Dean is nominated.

You still can't dispute that if Dean was down 7-points on Monday and he is down 1-point today that he was gaining rapidly on Tuesday and Wednesday, can you?

[Renew Deal]

18. I can dispute it

We don't know all the info. Lets wait and see.

[CMT]

19. so lets see you dispute it if you can

Tell me in a rolling tracking poll and todays results are from Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and we already know that on Monday (per Zogby) that Kerry had a 7-point edge 25-17--how can Howard Dean be only 1-point behind on Thursday if he didn't make a strong comeback on Tuesday and Wednesday? It just makes sence.

[Rowdyboy]

16. Iowa is gonna be a close race, possibly too close to call...

My guess: Dean wins narrowly with Gephart a close 2nd, Kerry tight in third and Edwards with a decent 4th.

Next Monday' gonna be a LONNNGGGGG night.

[9119495]

20. Actually the results will come in very quickly.

The party's goal here is to have all numbers in by like ten o'clock for broadcast. All it is is a delegate count--no ballots.

[David Dunham]

22. Josh Marshall: Dean Is Falling Measurably In IA and NHThe common denomina

Josh Marshall on Dean's continuing fall in the Iowa and New Hampshire polls: "The common denominator seems pretty clear: Dean's support is falling -- not precipitously, but measurably -- and at least some Dean supporters appear to be going to his near rivals in each state."

[CMT]

23. Josh should read ARG

today which acknowledges a drop for Dean but his core support app. 30% is solid. Also, Zogby says in his interpetation that "Dean is not in free-fall" certainly his improved numbers on Tuesday and Wednesday would indicate this.

[sandnsea]

25. Money, Endorsements, Frontrunner media = runaway candidate

And it's not happening. He's gotten all the single issue anti-war candidates he can get. The rest of the people are looking for someone to lead the country on ALL the issues.

[AP]

27. The guy has 40 mil and no spending limits in IA.

Of course, the only other guy with no spending limits is now neck and neck, which is an interesting commentary. But, Dean should be run-away victor if only his message resonated with voters.

[Larkspur]

30. As one who as voted for 23 years, I've only this year gotten polled

and that was the other night from Zogby, who emailed me a link to a poll they asked me to take.

Before this email, I never got polled, and I bet there are a lot of Iowans for Dean who are like me -- will vote but don't register in the polls.

[CMT]

28. even before the votes are cast. Interesting

that you are already writing Dean off. He is the only candidate to win anything yet, dispelling another lie that he can't appeal to minority voters with his win in DC. I trust the people will turn out and Dean will win Iowa and we'll go on from there.

[Padraig18]

26. Kick

:)