Prepare for Dean to win Iowa?

[AP]

What a campaign always wants in the primaries is to make it look like they've achieved something big.

I think there's definitely been a feeling that Dean is in trouble in Iowa. If he wins Iowa, it will be his big deal now.

It might be part of the Dean strategy.

So prepare for a Dean win?

[windansea]

1. prepare for Dean 3rd

is more like it

[sandnsea]

4. No, it's not like that at all

It is really and truly a very close 3 way race. Iowa is anybody's guess, it'll be all about turnout.

[sandnsea]

2. Absotively

That's the plan. But it won't matter because he's already pumped himself up as the inevitable candidate and a win now is expected, regardless. And with everything he's got going for him, he really should be doing a whole lot better than he is.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

15. Link?

When has he "pumped himself up as the inevitable candidate...?"


A quote with him saying something like "My nomination is inevitable" will do the trick.

[AP]

16. It was only yesterday that people here were saying everyone else should

drop out becasue Dean's going to win.

And wasnt't the thing with McAuliffe -- asking him for relief from attacks -- premised on the notion that the eventual nominee shouldn't be attacked.

And then, when people cite Republicans who say the Democrats are doing our job for is in terms of attacking Dean -- the only way that would matter is if you assumed Dean was going to be the nominee.

I think it's beyond question that there has been a ton of "Dean is going to be the nominee, so deal" coming from Dean's camp.

[nightperson]

32. Exactly.

Please deal.

[sandnsea]

27. Oh please

What do you think that Gore speech was about last month? Trying to make Howard the unstoppable. Rally around like good little soldiers. Link. :eyes:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

30. No link?

I'm disappointed. :(

[AP]

31. I think asking McAuliffe to tell the others to stop attacking him was

a request made on the implied premise that he was going to be the nominee and that the criticisms were only going to weaken him in his inevitable head to head with Bush.

[9119495]

34. Still no link quoting Dean saying it is inevitable? You

brought it up.

[AP]

44. Yeah, that would have been a smooth move by dean to SAY it.

However, he certainly did ACT it.

Why would anyone think it's appropriate to ask DNC chairman to tell others to stop talking about him?

His argument was that dean shouldn't be weakened for the GE by having to address negative stuff in the primaries.

Even NPR's spin last week was that Dean was just tired and looking forward to the "next step" (ie, his inevitable nomination).

[KittyWampus]

3. Do You Think They're Still Going To Throw Votes To Kerry?

Wasn't it just a few days ago that they were wondering to do with their excess?

But then maybe Zogby is full of shit and Dean still has a firm lead.

I don't trust any pollsters... especially Zogby.

[maddezmom]

5. don't believe it for a minute

I bet the internal polls are showing it closer than anyone thought possible. :)

[AP]

7. Dean is certainly doing things that indicate they're a little worried...

But there's also the "sell yourself short" angle to make it look like you've exceded expectations.

[GalleryGod]

42. Zogby right;YOU wrong-o

:wtf:

[deminflorida]

6. Dean may squeak it out in Iowa...but just barely. It will be a test of his

organization. Gephardt may have the union buses to get people to the polls, and the coffee and food to keep them warm, but it won't guarantee how they vote...well maybe it will since the voting I guess is public for everyone to see. If the Edwards people don't get that 15% now, lets just see who they go and camp out with in the second round. Edwards is a pretty moderate Democrat and attracts alot of moderate supporters. My guess is that they will go to Kerry in the second round. Clark supporters up there, few they may be are probably alot of Veteran types, American Legion, VFW, etc...I'd be willing to bet they go Kerry's way as well. Lieberman folks will go either Kerry or Gephardt, as well.

If Dean has a good solid grass-roots organization he squeaks by after the CMB endorsement and Carter support this weekend.

If not...

Then it will be:

Kerry
Dean
Gephardt
Edwards

That's my prediction.....for what it's worth...

[KittyWampus]

20. What "Carter Support"? Dean Requested The Meeting

and then decided to publicize it and try and make it look like he was being endorsed (wink wink).

Dean requested a meeting and Carter was being a statesman and agreed to it.

Carter had to issue a statement making it clear that he would meet with ANY of the Democratic Candidates and was NOT in any way shape or form any more "supportive" of Dean than the other Candidates.

By the way, Clark had a meeting with Carter but did NOT publicize it.

[9119495]

35. Chip Carter has been with Dean for a long time and Carter

was anti-war, anti-tax cut. He is trying to be the good ex-president by not endorsing. It's pretty clear whom he favors.

[in_cog_ni_to]

23. I heard a reporter yesterday

on C-SPAN say that the Union stewards, rally the people to vote, herd them to the caucus and STAND THERE while they caucus...making sure they vote the way they are "suppose" to. That could be bad for Dean. Gep has a HUGE union following. This is going to be a nail-biter, for sure!

[9119495]

36. The stewards don't always follow the union line though

A friend of mine was a long time steward and local labor council member. She went for Bradley in 2000-even though it made things awkward.

[Kukla]

8. Don't all political races tighten up as the polling date gets closer?

I just seem to recall this being very normal.

It's going to be close no matter what. I certainly don't expect a Dean blowout and wouldn't be surprised if any of the four front runners came away the winner.

[9119495]

37. Not when Dean is a candidate and you're on DU

[bigwillq]

9. Dean will barely win Iowa

and it'll give him momentum for NH wherehe'll win by a decent margain

[Democrats unite]

11. LOL now thats funny!

eom

[GalleryGod]

43. Buzzzzzzzzzzzzz ! Terribly Sorry! Bad Prognostication!

:boring:

[CMT]

10. I think the polls have tightened

but I do think that Dean will win. He had a very poor day polling on Monday-running 7-points behind Kerry, but rebounded on Tuesday and Wednesday and is 1-point behind today in three day tracking.

I think that Edwards will come in second. Gep third and Kerry a close fourth.

[Hep]

12. Dean's campaign has achieved something big whether he wins or not

n/t

[redqueen]

13. Good point n/t

[DemBones DemBones]

25. Yes, but after all the strutting, if he doesn't win, and win BIG,

he falls far short of expectations he and his supporters have set for him.

An insurgent who campaigns like mad for a year, year and a half, gets more media coverage than anyone else in the race, is declared the one to beat, and then finishes in Iowa just barely first, maybe even second? That's a guy in a world of hurt.

[9119495]

38. Yeah but when you are "this weeks pinata"

just prior to the vote...

Check out: http://www.campaigndesk.org/

for an analysis.

[Sir_Shrek]

14. I think Gephardt will take Iowa

...

[blm]

17. I wouldn't make any predictions either way right now.

.

[brainwashed_youth]

18. are they tied

Last I heard, Kerry, Dean, and Gephardt were tied in Iowa. is this true?

[lostinhere]

21. Will this impact the four-way tie in Iowa?

I just found this on the ABC News website. Will this affect Dean's chances?

Dean's Trooper
What Did He Know About Abuse Allegations; When Did He Know It?

By Brian Ross, Chris Vlasto and Rhonda Schwartz

Jan. 14 — In his presidential campaign, and as governor of Vermont before that, Howard Dean has taken a tough, zero-tolerance stand on domestic violence, accusing the Bush administration of not being committed to the issue. Yet Dean said he had no idea that one of the men closest to him was repeatedly abusing his wife.

<snip>

"There were years of abuse in which she had been struck, had been pushed, shoved in front of the children, both physical and emotional abuse in front of the children," said Diamond. He said the abuse occurred both before and while Madore worked for Dean. Madore later admitted five separate instances of abuse.

<snip>

On May 23, 1997, Dean inserted himself in the case, filing a three-page affidavit at White's request for use in a custody hearing, in which he described Madore as "a firm but gentle disciplinarian" and a "wonderful parent."

According to Diamond, it was a highly unusual move. "I'm sure that there are very few cases on record where a governor might have done that," he told ABCNEWS.


For the whole article, here is the link: http://abcnews.go.com/sections/WNT/Investigation/dean_domestic_abuse_040114-1.html

[9119495]

39. Go to "campaigndesk.org" for non-biased analysis of this story

Again, campaigndesk.org

[DemBones DemBones]

26. Zogby says it's a four-way tie, with Edwards being the one

not on your list. He says it's too close to call. That's as of circa 6 p.m. EST. I don't know about other pollsters.

[blm]

28. so far, and Edwards is right up there, too.

.

[Padraig18]

19. Dean's internal polls don't show it nearly as tight as Zogby does.

:)

[Democrats unite]

22. Well thats a no brainer!

eom

[creativelcro]

24. and vice versa...

[ScholarSeeker]

29. I'm getting a whiff that Dean will either lose or barely squeak into Iowa

[tedoll78]

33. Serious question about polling methods:

I've heard that these polls survey only those who have their names on lists, and that the lists are derived from previous caucus participation. That would mean that people who are new to politics and who have never caucused before (think: many Dean folks) would not be accounted for in these polls. What do you think of this aspect?

[mzmolly]

40. Huh? Are you suggesting pollsters were paid off, or that Edwards isn't

actually motivating new supporters?

The negative smears on Dean worked, congratulations to all that took part :toast:

The polls reflect a wounded candidate who has suffered more attacks/scrutiny than any other candidate by far.

If Dean pulls of second place after what he's been through, it will be a major success. Go Dean, off to New Hampshire we are!

[AP]

45. The polls had Dean ahead or within the MOE.

[a_lil_wall_fly]

41. Yeah...so crowpie now AP

hehehehehe

Go Edwards!!!!!!!!!

[AP]

46. It was a question not a statement!!!

Ok, I did think Dean was going to win. I believed the hype. I thought he was "organazized".