Poll: Rudy Leads In Gov, Senate Races

[Freddie Stubbs]

By MARC HUMBERT
AP Political Writer

January 14, 2004, 11:27 AM EST


ALBANY, N.Y. -- Sen. Charles Schumer has a big lead over state Attorney General Eliot Spitzer for the 2006 Democratic nomination for governor while Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton could face a tough battle for re-election that year, a statewide poll reported Wednesday.

The poll, from Marist College's Institute for Public Opinion, found former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani leading the former first lady, 50 percent to 46 percent, in a hypothetical Senate matchup.

Clinton and Gov. George Pataki were tied at 46 percent each in another hypothetical matchup.

Republicans Pataki and Giuliani, who quit the Senate race against Clinton in 2000 after he was diagnosed with prostate cancer, are considered potential challengers to her expected bid for a second term in 2006.

more: http://www.nynewsday.com/news/local/bronx/ny-bc-ny--governor-20060114jan14,0,1632688.story?coll=nyc-manheadlines-bronx

[CMT]

1. if that is all Rudy leads Hillary by then we should be happy

I remember when he was leading her by more than twenty-points.

[lancdem]

4. That's what I was thinking

He used to have a very healthy double-digit lead on Hillary. By next year, he'll probably be trailing. BTW, I don't think he wants to be a senator. He was never that enthusiastic about running against Hillary the first time. He's probably interested in the governorship or the presidency.

Edit: I just read the article; Hillary's approval rating is at an all-time high in that poll. If she keeps going like this, neither Rudy nor Pataki will beat her. The GOP will throw everything at her in 2006, but she'll be prepared.

[jeter]

6. I say that Rudy runs for Governor...

...and Pataki challenges Clinton for the Senate.

Both men have Presidential aspirations. I'm sure they want to replace W. in 2008 (if he is reelected) or run in their own right (if he is not).

The problem with the GOP is that after Bush they have no one. Jeb won't win anything.

So a moderate Republican may be the ticket for 2008. At least i'm sure that's what they are thinking.

Therefore, it will be between Guilliani and Pataki.

Pataki has already served as Governor for 12 years (at the end of this term). A fourth term, against a serious candidate (either Shumer or Spitzer) will be tough. He has always had only token opposition.

But defeating Hillary Clinton may give Pataki the boost he needs to run nationally.

Also, Rudy is more of a chief executive than a legislator. So I see him running for the governorship.

My 2 cents.

[lancdem]

7. Your scenario makes sense

Remember what happened to Mario Cuomo when he tried to run for a fourth term? I think Pataki will run against Hillary, too. She should win (Pataki's not as popular as he used to be), but it certainly won't be easy. Rudy and Pataki are the only two Repukes who have even a shot at beating her.

[9119495]

10. They have Arnold!!--after the amendment, that is.

[Frodo]

12. A couple thoughts/modifications.

Pataki is term limited, so four is out anyway.

There are three races (2004 senate, 2006 senate, and 2006 Gov) to divide between these two (and remember, they don't like each other very much). I'd predict Giuliani against Schumer this time then run for Governor in 2006, while Pataki runs for Senate in 2006 and can hand-pick Rudy's replacement from the "B" list when he steps down to run for Governor.

This allows either/both of them to have bother "Gov" and "Senator" on their resume' for a 2008 run.


The problem is that "hero of 9/11" only lasts so long (as we're seeing) and, as I said, they don't like each other enough to coordinate things that well. Also, it's getting late to run against Schumer now and Rudy probably likes the money he's pulling down "consulting".

[Renew Deal]

2. Rudy could probably get any job he wants in NY.

Especially in a non presidential election year where turnout is down.

[bluestateguy]

3. He's not running for Senator

If he runs for anything it will be the Governorship, but it that job would require him to take a pay cut.

[Leilani]

5. I Agree

Rudy's not a Senate kind of guy..

He'll probably run for gov, if he runs.

[saltpoint]

8. Giuliana has never written --

-- a sentence of legislation in his life. Why he went for the Senate last time, I have no idea. I don't think he'll try it again.

What could be worse is if Cheney steps down and Giuliani joins Dubya on the GOP ticket. That would be a Karl Rove maneuver to showcase New York City, Giuliani as mayor during 9-11, Bush as Great Protector Against Terruh, and would throw mid-Atlantic and some New England blue states into play for the Republicans.

[PATRICK]

11. Now that's a brainstorm

That makes a lot sense, although they will do a Powell control on Rudy more easily because the Veep can easily be relegated.

Cheney might be fried in a tough campaign where he can't set his own sick(invisible)/well(select photo-op) schedule. But you can bet the Grey-faced eminence will find some way to rule the roost in the second term, maybe even more in compensation for giving up number two.

I suspected that they might pull off some drama to upstage the Dems, and drag it out with a phony guessing game and "process" and this would be the least risky, if only uncle Dick could let go a bit.

The only trouble I see with this is the succession. No way is Rudy, for all his recent lip service a part of the old team, not even the greasy Pataki/DAmato gang in NY. Way too independent and egomanaical for the powers that intend to stay. If they have to, he will become the most invisible and humiliated Veep in American history, maybe even make him sign a contract never to run for President. No, after Teddy Roosevelt no GOP President has ever put such a non-drone in the two spot.

[ringmastery]

9. Will Hillary even run for re-election?

Her term ends in January 2007.

If the democrats lose in '04, and by all indications it'll be a very close race, so we are fools not to entertain the possibilty, she will be a prime 2008 contender.

Why run for re-election as a lame duck if she intends to run for president? A loss destroys her presidential ambitions. Not running always her to focus on the top job.