Boxer in solid spot for Senate re-election race

[goobergunch]

<snip>

Despite two successful statewide runs for secretary of state and a third- place finish in the 2002 Republican primary for governor, Jones, 54, is virtually unknown to many California voters. Among registered voters, 24 percent had a favorable impression of the Fresno rancher, 11 percent didn't like him, and a whopping 65 percent had no opinion, the Field Poll released showed.

Boxer, a two-term senator and former congresswoman from Marin County, had a 49 percent favorable rating, with 37 percent unfavorable and 14 percent with no opinion.

<snip>

A solid 40 percent of California voters are not inclined to re-elect Boxer, compared with 46 percent who back her. Those numbers are virtually unchanged in the past six months and similar to Boxer's usual showing, said Mark DiCamillo, Field Poll director.

<snip>

On the Republican side, Jones holds a huge lead in the early polling for the GOP nomination. He's favored by 28 percent of the likely Republican voters, compared with 6 percent for former U.S. Treasurer Rosario Marin, 6 percent for Peninsula businesswoman Toni Casey and 3 percent for former Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian. More that half of those polled were undecided.

more...http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2004/01/17/MNG3G4C8IQ1.DTL

Boxer will probably be re-elected IMHO. She will have to campaign for it, but she should be re-elected.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

1. Look, Boxer does not have the problems of Gray Davis so....

she will NOT become a victim of the circumstances. Plus the base is united around her as they shamfully were not around Governor Davis!

:dem:

[jbfam4]

2. Boxer voted against going to war.

[billhos]

3. Not so fast

According too the article She only gets 48% of the votes in a hypothetical matchup. That is beneath the 50% threshold and indicates weakness, particularly if as the article states her numbers remain steady. Jones if he is the nominee of course will become better known as the cmapign progress's along. On the other hand if he is not that well known he could loose to the former treasurer who I would think would be a stronger chalenger. While I would think Boxer would be the faverite, I would think the poll shown should raise red flags for Boxer.

[knight_of_the_star]

4. She could win

She has held her seat against other races that were supposed to be this tight, she can hold on. It won't be easy, but she can win this one.

[dusty64]

5. This is good,

but I still can't figure out why her numbers are under 50%.

[Doomsayer13]

8. Boxer is a polarizing figure

among liberals she is very popular, but that's where her base of support ends. Moderates like her enough to vote for her, but there's a general consensus that she's more liberal than California is, especially given the recent Recall in which over 60% of the electorate voted for Center-Right (Shwarzenegger + McClintock). She always has a tough fight because she's Barbara Boxer, but the state's liberals will turn out for her, and will give her an edge.

[Doomsayer13]

6. Boxer needs to fight

Good thing she's so good at it. A couple days ago at the California Democratic Convention, she seemed enthusiastic that she had enough support from Democrats and Greens to defeat likely challenger Bill Jones (former Secretary of State) in November. There will be no Green challenger to Boxer (thank you Greens) and her recent pricipled stands have put the progressive-environmentalist-labor folks solidly in her corner. I'm gonna be out there campaigning through the season for her re-election, because she definatly needs all the help she can get. We can't afford to lose this race, but I'm not afraid because Boxer is a badass and will be sure to fight her way through all the RWing BS that's gonna be thrown our way.

[LWolf]

7. She'll have my vote

and whatever other support I can muster.

Most of my focus will be on the house race though. My rep in the house, Howard "Buck" McKeon, is sitting fat in a "safe" district. I'd like to upset that applecart and replace him with a democrat.