Nader effect on elections "study"?

[sharkbait2]

I put study in parentheses b/c I dont quite understand the chart these people put together or the conclusion... the gist of which translates to "nader candidacy translates to bush win"

Nader effect

"Recent pro-Nader spin is that his 2000 Florida votes were largely comprised of non-Democrat Party registered voters and that in 2004 Nader will draw more votes from Bush than the Democrat Party Nominee (e.g. Senator John Kerry, D-MA). This is pure spin designed to blunt Democrat Party condemnation of a Nader '04 presidential candidacy.

At a minimum, if Nader had not been on the ballot in Florida and New Hampshire a plurality of his votes would have gone to Gore. Gore would have won both states and been sworn in as the 43rd POTUS.

---- Snip

The spreadsheet prepared by Capitol Grilling puts this in perspective. Clearly, any traction Nader gets will have a tremendous effect upon the national political struggle between the two parties. There are arguments about ballot access in all fifty states. But, that's irrelevant. Nader needs ballot access in only one state: Florida. So, the stakes are pretty high.

http://www.capitolgrilling.com

If anyone cares to look through the mangled spreadsheet they have, Id be curious to know what kind of fuzzy math theyre using... Im a regular lurker/user in their forum.

[LiberalFighter]

1. Making "some" wild assumptions

• Bush gets the same number of votes this election cycle as he did in 2000.
  
  • Rebuttal: Did his daddy get the same number of votes?
    
  • Rebuttal: Does gw* have the same polling?
  
  
• Kerry gets the same number of votes as Gore in 2000
  
  • Rebuttal: Did Clinton get the same number of votes?
  
  
• In the event Nader does not get traction this year, his Election 2000 votes will go to Kerry
  
  • Rebuttal: It might or they may go to other fringe candidates
  
  
• Buchanan's Election 2000 votes will go Republican (this is a stretch, but compensates for the claims that some of Nader's vote would go to Bush).
  
  • Rebuttal: Are they talking about the Miami-Dade votes or other Florida votes that were intended for Gore?
  
  
  AND WHICH STATES WILL NADER MAKE IT ON THE BALLOT?