Here's how we could take back the House

[mndemocrat_29]

OK, it's going to be terrificly hard to win back, but I'd like to point out something-if we don't start making some gains, we may hear the four most dreaded words in the English language-House Speaker Tom DeLay (shudders).

Therefore, hear is a way that we could take back the House. I believe (correct me if I'm wrong) that we currently have 206 House members (when Bernie Sanders is included) Therefore, we should be shooting for 220, just to have a slightly more solid majority:

South Dakota-AL
This should be ours for the taking. State Sen. Larry Diedrich is gaining on Stephanie Herseth, but Herseth remains above fifty percent. This is a special election in June, and will help to build on the momentum we gained by electing Ben Chandler.

Arizona-1
Rick Renzi has yet to really gain a formidable reputation with his constituents and Democrats have a terrific candidate in Paul Babbitt, brother of former Sec. Bruce Babbitt. This will definitely be close, but given that it is a presidential year, turnout for the upper battles will be the key.

Colorado-3
One of our best shots at picking up an open seat, John Salazar is running on the same ticket as his brother (much like the Mathesons in Utah) and should gain some traction from his brother being the likely victor in the Senate race (along with his famous name). Republicans have a very divided primary, which could hurt them hear.

Colorado-7
While we haven't recruited our top choice candidate, any Democrat could do well in this very, very close district. Beauprez's links to the corrupt Colorado reredistricting could take him down.

Georgia-12
Max Burns is a very conservative representative from a liberal district. Whoever makes it through to the general election should be able to take this district-this is our best shot at a pickup.

Indiana-8
Jon Hostettler, the eternally plagued Republican, always has a tough race. From the look of this race, Jon Jennings should be outperforming him in the fundraising race, and this will go down to the wire, but looks to be one of our best pickup opportunities.

Kentucky-3
Anne Northup, the eternally-targeted representative from Kentucky's most liberal district. Kentucky is currently sending mixed signals, electing a Republican governor, then going around and sending a Democrat in a special election to Washington. In order to take back the House, Northup will have to go. Tony Miller, the candidate for lieutenant governor, could be up for the task.

Louisiana-3
Billy Tauzin III will be a very difficult candidate to beat, but Louisiana has been a great source of pride for Democrats recently, electing a Democratic governor, senator, and new representative, as well as many constitutional officers. Charlie Melancon seems to be the Democratic standard-bearer here, so that could help us in the Louisiana elections system (possibly even avoiding a runoff). Something to note-if we hold John's seat and elect Melancon, we will have a majority of the Louisiana House seats.

New Mexico-1
Time for Bill Richardson to prove he really has coattails. First stop-winning the Democrats the two Republican-held House seats. He certainly has a good candidate-President Pro Tempore Richard Romero is back for a rematch. With Sen. Domenici likely to retire in 2008, eliminating the best chance the Republicans have at holding the seat (Wilson), will basically insure a pickup for 2008 (always thinking ahead). New Mexico is becoming more and more Democratic, and we need to ride that wave.

New Mexico-2
Steve Pearce won in 2002 against a poor candidate. This time, we've recruited a doozy of a good candidate-Gary King, son of For. Gov. King. Pearce is a poor candidate and should be taken down in a strong push by New Mexico Democrats.

Pennsylvania-6
Lois Murphy, the woman who organized Gov. Rendell's incredible victory in 2002, is running against Jim Gerlach. She's a great campaigner, and Ed Rendell should be returning the favor for 2004. Pennsylvania is a Gore state that turned further left in 2002 (proved by Rendell's victory), yet it sends two Republicans to the Senate and only seven of its nineteen representatives are Democrats. Beating Gerlach and sending Murphy will be a huge advantage in gaining even more traction in Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania-15
The recruiting efforts here have been poor, but this is a district that went for Gore/Nader by 51.9 percent in 2000. Joe Driscoll has been raising a lot of money for this race, and could be the candidate to take on Charlie Dent.

Washington-8
Jennifer Dunn is retiring, and this is the most liberal district in Washington held by a Republican. Democrats have a superb candidate in Alex Alben, who will probably be taking on Sheriff Dave Reichert-it should be close, but with this a presidential election, Alben could further the trend of winning seats on the Pacific (if he wins and we hold all of our seats, Washington will be sending 7/9 Democrats to the House and both Democratic senators).

That's 13 seats, but we have to account for Texas and KY-4 (which is looking better with Nick Clooney running). While we're certain to lose some seats in Texas (how many remain to be seen), we'll most likely have to pick up at least a couple of the following seats to stay in shape:

Connecticut-2: Rob Simmons shouldn't be in Congress, with his district voting SIXTY PERCENT for Gore/Nader. This is a must for Democrats (seats this Democratic-leaning are essential to gain and maintain a Democratic Majoriy) and we'll eventually take it, but winning it in 2004 will help to further insure a Pelosi Speakership. Jim Sullivan, a Norwich City Councilman, could be the candidate to take this.

Connecticut-4: The fact that Connecticut sends more Republicans than Democrats to its House delegation is incredible-the DCCC has been touting this district as a potential pickup, and it could be, though Shays remains very popular. Tough, young Diane Farrell could be the candidate to do it. If she can beat Shays, she'll become a new superstar in the Democratic party, and a potential future senator.

Florida-22: Jim Stork, a young, attractive candidate, will be taking on Clay Shaw, who nearly lost last presidential year.

Georgia-11: With Denise Majette the potential Democratic candidate for the Senate, turnout should be high among African-American communities, and this could push Phil Gingrey out of office. Attorney Rick Crawford looks to be the candidate here.

Nebraska-1: I know what you're thinking-a Democratic pickup in Nebraska? But it could happen in this conservative, but not horribly conservative district-which includes Lincoln, which has a Democratic mayor. It's an open seat, and Democrats have rallied strongly behind State Sen. Matt Connealy (including popular For. Sen. Bob Kerrey).

Nevada-3
Democrats have a better candidate this time around, and with Nevada on both Kerry and Bush's electoral wish lists, this should be a tough district. It was evenly split in 2004, and given Harry Reid's historic get-out-the-vote measures, he could drag the Democrat (Tom Gallagher) to a win.

Minnesota-2
I know it's a very long shot, but I didn't feel right leaving out my native Minnesota, and we have a great candidate in Teresa Daly. Let's not forget that Kline has lost twice before, so he isn't invincible by any means (and wouldn't it be great to send another DFLer to Congress?)

I know that this is a very optimistic analysis of the races, but these seem to be the races that we could take in the much-hoped-for sweep.

Any comments?

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

1. Wayyyyyyy too optimistic

Incumbents have a ginormous advantage, even if they are renown scumbags.

[mndemocrat_29]

2. I'm not saying we will do this

I'm saying this is how we'd do it if we were going to win back the House.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

3. Okay then... yeah, IF we were to pull it off....

give or take a couple here and there, that's a good estimate. Highly doubtful though, unfortunately.

[ButterflyBlood]

4. those are all vulnerable incumbents though

and ones that have been targeted.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

5. and if all the people who are mad at Bush

can be convinced that they need to vote straight ticket Dem, we can pull this off.

[Lexingtonian]

6. yep

A whole bunch of these folks are far less vulnerable than they look on paper. For one thing, it's only the second election after the Republican-favoring and incumbent protection gerrymanders.

We can win those seats with Republican freshmen who won on the Republican turnout differential in 2002- Arizona-1, Colorado-7, Georgia-11 (maybe), Georgia-12, Alabama-3 (maybe). A few open seats are Democratic enough- Washington-8, Colorado-3- to win. (Pennsylvania-15 isn't and Washington-5 is doubtful at best.) And maybe Richardson and Romero and the Greens can finally get their act together and bump off Heather Wilson- the point being not so much to get the seat but to eliminate her as competitor to Richardson for the Senate seat opening when Pete Domenici retires.

But all that's looking like a net gain of maybe a half dozen seats at best and breakeven at worst.

Things look a lot better in '06, especially if Democrats win the Presidency with a majority this fall. A bunch of Republican Congressfolk representing swing or Democratic districts are retiring or running for e.g. Senate. That would seem to include Peter King (NY-3), Chris Shays (CT-4), Nancy Johnson (CT-5), Mike Rogers (MI-8), Mark Kennedy (MN-2), and Katherine Harris (FL-14) perhaps. We can only hope for the same for Jim Leach (IA-2), Charlie Bass (NH-2), Jim Kolbe (AZ-8), and a small slew of Mid-Atlantic House Reps, e.g. Castle, Greenwood, LoBiondo. And the ironic first place that the 2002 Republican gerrymandering is likely to crack seems to be Florida....

[NMDemDist2]

8. how did K. Harris get in anyway? I am in Kolbe's AZ dist and he's toast

if I can do anything about it

[Lexingtonian]

12. heavily Republican district

She replaced a retiring Republican who got over 60% in the moderate but highly Republican district. Jan Schneider ran a smart (though underfunded) underdog campaign against Harris and it was quite a shock to the Florida Republican Party to see her squeezed down to 54% in what was otherwise a great year for them. Harris has done very little for Sarasota in her term, afaik, and the district is drifting Democratic at close to 1% a year in my estimation.

Good luck with trying to oust Kolbe. Older voters just stick by incumbents that don't offend them enough, it's kind of sad. When he retires (and he made noises in that direction in 2002 iirc) it's supposedly very likely going to be a Democratic seat. If he stays on, just remember you have a rare kind- a Republican House Rep widely known to be gay.

[NMDemDist2]

13. he's gay?? OMG i didnt know that how can he be such a goof then?

[NMDemDist2]

7. Babbitt may pull it off in AZ

AZ 1 is the far north with Flagstaff (a college town) and many of the reservations. His appeal for environmental issues should find a chord there. Also the Navajo need health care as they are the only tribe who isn't cashing in on casinos.

[NMDemDist2]

9. Check out this thread on AZ 1

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=108x112867

[notbush]

10. I'm very worried about Dennis Moore

here in Kansas.
He's had very,very, close elections in what is a moderate repug. district.
I read in either"The Hill" or "Roll Call" that he was one of I think a dozen dem. house members that would not make a Pres. endorsement.
You can "cherry pick" the ones we might win......but there are probably a dozen we could lose.

[Lexingtonian]

11. true

But usually the first election after an attempt to gerrymander the district the other way is the decisive one. In 2002 the good Kansas state legislature chopped a lot of Lawrence Democrats out of his district but couldn't quite get the votes to lop off UK entirely. He got a Republican county or two added in, or something on that scale.

If he's been good about constituent services and articulate, but not garrulous, he should have a substantially better margin- low fifties. After all, it's the same challengers afaik, who rarely do as well in their second shots at the same office. Scott Matheson in Utah-3 got a rougher district and did a good enough job that, now that he's running against all the same fellows again, he'll get a clean majority without any trouble.

OTOH, Utah seems to have gotten more moderate over the course of the Bush Presidency in general. Kansas has gotten a bit less so, if I read the tea leaves (ok, the Harper's article) correctly.