California Offers a Look Into Future of Politics

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The Wall Street Journal

California Offers a Look Into Future of Politics
Presidential Hopefuls Converge on State Increasingly Influenced by Independents, Hispanics
By JONATHAN KAUFMAN and JIM CARLTON
February 4, 2008; Page A10

To travel across California these days is to see the unfolding contours of the future of American politics. To the north, in Tracy, a growing bloc of independent voters is swinging between Democrats and Republicans, prompting California politicians to seek bipartisan compromises even as the state legislature is riven by deep ideological divides. To the south, in Orange County, a surging bloc of Hispanic voters is loosening the Republican grip on what was once known as Reagan country, tipping the state further into blue territory.

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California, which has a population of about 37 million, has long been a bellwether for political trends. These days, the trend is moderation. Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who last week endorsed Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain, has worked with the Democratic-controlled legislature on several measures. Up next: trying to achieve bipartisan cooperation to address a massive budget deficit being fed by falling housing prices and an economic slowdown. California is seeing a rise in independent voters. Since the 2000 presidential election, the number of voters registered as Democrats or Republicans in California has fallen by 800,000, while the "decline to state," or independent, rolls have grown by 700,000. Independents now account for one in five voters in California and have injected a new level of uncertainty into state politics. They backed the Republican Mr. Schwarzenegger in the 2003 governor's recall election and in his 2006 re-election bid. But they also supported Democratic U.S. Sens. Barbara Boxer in 2004 and Dianne Feinstein in 2006.

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California state politicians have responded to the growing clout of independents by agreeing to reach across the aisle more to work on issues. Gov. Schwarzenegger, for example, has forged deals with the speaker of the Democratic-controlled Assembly, Fabian Nuñez on a variety of issues including a plan to fight global warming and bonds to repair the state's crumbling infrastructure.
In California's Central Valley, the town of Tracy's proximity to the Bay Area is ground zero for a demographic change transforming politics in the nation's largest state. WSJ's Jim Carlton reports.

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The growth of the Hispanic vote is another factor reshaping California politics and the politics of states throughout the Southwest. Hispanics now make up about 36% of California's population and about 23% of eligible voters. Nationally, Hispanics are the largest and fastest-growing minority group, making up about 15% of the U.S. population and about 9% of eligible voters. Orange County, about 400 miles to the south of Tracy, has already seen the impact Hispanic voters can have. The Web site for the Orange County Republican Party still brags that it is "America's Most Republican County." But today, 49% of the county's voters are registered Republicans, down from 56% in 1990. Democrats hold two state legislative seats, a congressional seat and scores of local offices.

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The Republicans are paying a price for their stance on immigration. In 1994, California Hispanics flocked to the Democratic Party when Republicans backed passage of a referendum that sought to restrict access to services by immigrants. President Bush's courting of the Hispanic vote temporarily stopped the slide; in 2004 he won an estimated 40% of the Hispanic vote nationally, a record for a Republican presidential candidate. But now Republican support among Hispanics is hemorrhaging again. Nationally, 57% of Hispanic registered voters call themselves Democrats or say they lean toward the Democratic Party, while just 23% align with the Republican Party, according to a survey last fall by the Pew Hispanic Center. Hispanic voters overwhelmingly tell pollsters they believe Democrats, rather than Republicans, are doing the better job of dealing with immigration issues.

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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120208033401839195.html (subscription)

[MADem]

1. If they could skip those "spectacles" like that idiotic recall election... maybe...

I thought that charade was the OPPOSITE of democracy. It made a joke of the process.