SurveyUSA: Hillary's Ohio Primary Lead Shrinks To Nine Points

[babylonsister]

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/02/surveyusa_hillary_up_by_nine_i.php

SurveyUSA: Hillary's Ohio Primary Lead Shrinks To Nine Points
By Eric Kleefeld - February 19, 2008, 4:35PM

A new SurveyUSA poll gives Hillary Clinton a nine-point lead over Barack Obama in the Ohio primary — quite a bit less than the 17-point lead she had in their poll from just a week ago:

Clinton 52% (-4)
Obama 43% (+4)

Hillary would need big wins in Ohio and Texas on March 4, if she wants to really narrow Obama's current lead in pledged delegates. As it stands right now, Texas is a dead heat and Ohio now appears to be tightening.

[Kittycat]

1. And the way TX Allocates Delegates will only work in his favor

If he's able to pull on the female & hispanic base, even in the slightest - she's in trouble. Particularly in heavy hispanic areas, given that they have had lower turnout in the past - therefore fewer delegates assigned.

[babylonsister]

2. Here's an informative thread from a Texas DUer you might like to

check out and/or bookmark:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=4642375

[earthlover]

3. Prepare for the inevitable: if Hillary loses, the Herd will cry "disenfranchisment"

If they win, everything will be A-OK though.

[babylonsister]

5. How could/why would they do that? There's lots of proof that her

campaign was caught unaware due to lack of planning, not disenfranchisement. Their lack of planning seems like a personal problem. ;)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=108x125768

[earthlover]

7. reality never stopped the Hillary Herd from stampeding

[babylonsister]

8. Damn. Who does that sound like? Ugh. nt

[Kittycat]

6. Michigan will never stand as is.

And even if they let FL be seated - if she loses, the gains would not be enough to matter, given the current lead.

[Kittycat]

4. Yep, that's what I was talking about.

I was reading a diary on dkos a while back that went in to detail, and included demographics in those areas. There's a high number of registered latinos, with a heavier mix of women. However, due to the low turn-out, they're not looking at getting as many delegates. Despite what will be record turn out. That's why I think, if Obama can continue to make inroads in to that base - it's not going to fair well. Particularly since the metro areas do lend more toward him. So even if he loses, I'm thinking it's going to be a tight race. Or at minimum not one where she'll get the necessary 60% of the vote to be considered a viable candidate going forward.

[earthlover]

9. Hillary does not have to win OH or TX or PA....

Hillary can lose ALL the remaining states, and she will still be considered a contender.

Then the goal posts will be moved, and all the media will be goo-goo ga-ga-ing about a brokered convention. The focus will be on pledged delegates and super delegates, neither of which actually have to vote for anyone.

So we will find out on day three of the convention who the lucky winner is.

The media will play this for what it is worth.

Sorry, but this is what I see as a likely scenario. Obama has all the momentum with the voters, but I don't see Hillary backing down if there is a mathematical way of concocting a nomination, primaries or no primaries. She is in it to win.

This scenario, of course, would be McCain's wet dream....

Not only would he get to run against the candidate the Reps had hoped to run against to begin with....but they would be running against a totally fractured Democratic Party to boot!