8 Questions That Will Shape Where the Race for the Democratic Presidential Nominaton Goes From Here

[DeepModem Mom]

WP: 8 Questions That Will Shape Where the Race for the Democratic Presidential Nominaton Goes From Here
By Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, March 23, 2008; A09

*1. What is the most likely outcome of the dispute over the delegations from Florida and Michigan?

The collapse of efforts in Florida and Michigan to conduct do-over primaries makes a negotiated settlement to seat the two delegations the most likely outcome. But the ultimate resolution will have only a marginal impact on Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's attempts to narrow the overall delegate count, many Democrats familiar with intraparty rules and credentials battles say....Party leaders in Michigan and Florida, with help from an effective spin operation in the Clinton campaign, have generated considerable media attention with their concerns about disenfranchising voters in two big battleground states. Inside the party, however, there is far less sympathy. The view of party leaders is simple: The two states broke the rules, and to simply seat their delegations now would invite even more calendar chaos in 2012. The controversy continues to be another stain on the process.

*2. What remaining state contests will be most important and why?

There are 10 contests remaining -- eight states and two territories. In virtually every one of these contests, Barack Obama or Clinton begins as the favorite. She is favored in Pennsylvania, Kentucky, West Virginia and Puerto Rico. He is favored in North Carolina, Oregon, Guam, Montana and South Dakota. Indiana may be the closest thing left to a tossup, though it tilts slightly to Clinton.

So which are important? The next contest, and the biggest prize left if Florida and Michigan don't vote again, is Pennsylvania on April 22. An Obama victory in Pennsylvania could effectively end the nomination battle, but that's unlikely. His real challenge is to prevent Clinton from running away with the state the way she did in Ohio so he can blunt her argument that she significantly outperforms him in big states that will be critical in the general election....

*3. What is Clinton's path to the nomination?

Clinton needs at least four things to happen. First, she must significantly narrow Obama's lead in the pledged delegate count....Second, she must also finish the primaries ahead of or nearly tied with Obama in the popular vote....Third, Clinton must emerge in national polls as a stronger candidate against John McCain....Finally, Clinton must persuade uncommitted superdelegates to deny the nomination to the candidate who has more pledged delegates....

*4. Has Obama successfully dealt with the controversy over the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr.?

Democrats say his Philadelphia speech last Tuesday may have accomplished what he needed to keep his advantage in the nomination battle. Republicans -- and Democrats -- say that, if he is the nominee, he will need to do more to minimize its potential to harm his chances of winning the White House....

*5. Will the nomination battle go all the way to the convention?

This is the big question and the big worry inside the Democratic Party, and on this, there is no consensus....

*6. Will Democrats unite after the Obama-Clinton fight ends?

The overwhelming desire among Democrats to win back the White House should reunite Obama and Clinton supporters once a nominee emerges, but with every day the fight continues -- and with every attack and counterattack -- the odds diminish. And party leaders know it....

*7. Has McCain succeeded in uniting Republicans behind his bid?

If he hasn't, the Democrats and the media have. And Clinton certainly would if she is the nominee....

*8. Would Clinton or Obama be the stronger foe against McCain?

This is the big question that every superdelegate is trying to answer, as are strategists gaming out McCain's prospects in a general election. At this point, there is as much confusion as consensus....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/22/AR2008032202229_pf.html