Kerry leads nationwide according to latest CNN poll...

[BushGone04]

http://www.blog.johnkerry.com/blog/

[DrFunkenstein]

1. I'm No Poll Whore

But it's always nice to see. I think it was a mistake for Dean to telegraph his big lead, knowing it was only one poll. I'm sure there are a million other polls telling us that Al Sharpton has the race sewn up, but here's the latest from CNN:

Kerry: 16%
Lieberman: 13%
Dean: 11%
Edwards and Gep: 7%

[liberalhistorian]

2. Sigh.

I'm not that crazy about Kerry, but I'm very glad to see that he at least is ahead of Holy Joe.

[dsc]

3. Since there are so many

can you site just one? I would dearly love to see the poll with Sharpton leading.

[ProfessorPlum]

4. I think that might have been a tongue-in-cheek

comment on the realibility of polls

[DrFunkenstein]

5. Sharpton Leads Democratic Pack

National Review Poll:

Who should the Democratic nominee be?

Sharpton: 67%
Hillary: 38%
Dean: 34%
Nader: 28%
McCain: 17%

[dsc]

7. I knew the Sharpton thing was joking

but on a serious note the top three are actually tied due to MOE (and yes I have pointed this out on polls where Dean was leading). I think the debate should help Gephardt and hurt Lieberman which should alter this a bit.

[Nicholas_J]

14. Yeah

You well know that Dean supporters state that Dean is ahead in polls in which the same relation exists between Dean and other candiidates.
If Dean is two points ahead of Gephardt in Iowa with a 5 point morgin of error, Dean is ALWAYS said to be leading by his own supporters.

It is the trend of who happens to be on top and who happens to stay there that is most important.

And Dean is 5 point behind Kerry, which is sort of indicative that Kerry leads him

9/3-4/03 7/16-17/03 5/21-22/03 2/19-20/03 1/15-16/03

John Kerry 16 14 14 8 11
Joseph Lieberman 13 16 13 16 21
Howard Dean 11 10 4 3 3
Dick Gephardt 7 12 13 13 10
John Edwards 7 6 7 7 12
Al Sharpton 5 5 8 7 2
Bob Graham 4 4 5 3 3
Carol Moseley Braun 4 4 3 4 n/a
Dennis Kucinich 3 3 2 2 n/a
Other 9 3 1 7 11
Not sure 21 23 30 30 27

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

No shock to me...

[Fleshdancer]

6. Hopefully this means the media will pay more attention to Kerry

I have obviously already chosen who I'll vote for in the primaries, but I still think Kerry is a good candidate. Of course, it's always a good day when a candidate beats Lieberman in a national poll!

[NewYorkerfromMass]

8. Kerry was great last night

he'll be at 20% soon.

[DJcairo]

9. All I can say is...

whoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooohoooooooooooooooooooo!

[George_Bonanza]

10. Polls don't mean no nothing

I didn't trust polls on Dean, and I won't really trust polls on Kerry either, to be fair. Face it, the 2/3's of the nation are apathetic in the just-starting Democratic race.

But, like nationalist propaganda, it does lift morale, seeing Kerry ahead!

PS In no way am I equating Kerry with propaganda! I'm just equating unrealiable propaganda with unrealiable polls.

[Nicholas_J]

13. Polls have alway been fairly accurate in predicting

Trends and directions. Just a few days ago and for the last six months Joe Liberman has been at the top of every national poll.

Every poll in in which democratic incumbents against a sitting Republican president has had the democrat at the lead beofre labor day, falling out of the running by Thanksgiving.
It does not take long after the candidates start the official season for the front runner to become obvious in most cases.

Today Kerry started TV advertisments in major media markets in both Iowa and New Hamspsire and has held onto a great deal of his campiagn donations to date in order to run hard when it counts. Most Americans do not even begin to pay attention to who is running until labor day, and most presidential candidates know that wasting efforts before this date is not a very good idea.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

15. IOW: Goodbye Lieberman.....

and HELLO KERRY! :hi:

[clar]

19. Nonsense

and a lot of it. Polls mean little at this point. Not Dean's polls, not Lieberman's polls, not Kerry's polls. National polls mean even less than polls in state's where the focus is on presidential politics, such as NH and IA. As someone upthread noted, it's a nice morale lift, but signifies little political reality.

As far as your wish that Dean be hx by Thanksgiving, that's highly unlikely. His campaign has openly stated that it expects to raise over 10 million dollars this quarter. Money talks, particularly the type of money that's backed by hundreds of thousands of activists. Dean has raised money in a remarkably low overhead manner. Kerry has spent hundreds of thousands to raise his bucks.

Dean's outlay of funds early, has been almost universally acknowledged as a savvy move. In fact, few and far between are those who think he's run anything but a brilliant campaign.

Of course Dean could stumble badly. So could Kerry- oh that's right he already stumbled.

[Nicholas_J]

11. Well polls are poll and though I support Kerry in an article about

THe uninsured in Vermont this comment was made about such polls.

All estimates of the percent uninsured, both in Vermont and nationally, are based on surveys. Like any survey, there is some uncertainty around these estimates. A common example of this uncertainty is when political polls are reported with a “margin of error.” The most significant determinant of the size of this uncertainty is the size of the survey – the more people who are surveyed, the smaller the uncertainty is. Another important factor is how well the persons selected for the survey represent the larger population of interest in terms of characteristics such as age or income. Specific analytical techniques may be used to adjust for "bias" when survey respondents differ in some way from the entire population of interest.

http://216.239.39.104/search?q=cache:FzuHwx-xM74J:www.leg.state.vt.us/jfo/Vermont%2520Uninsured.pdf+%22Vermont%22+%27uninsured%22+%221992%22&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&client=REAL-tb

One of the reasons I prefer the Ipsos/Cook Polls is that the samples tend to be 1500-2000 for everything they do and they use techniques to adjust for bias.

[DJcairo]

12. This is great news if you support John Kerry

This is the first poll that has shown him in the lead. Most of these national polls have had Gephardt or Lieberman in first and some reently have even put Dean in first. This is important because it proves the media has missed the boat all together with respect to their understanding of Kerry. After all the negative reporting about him the last week or so you would think he'd be dead last. Clearly, most Americans don't agree and this poll shows Kerry has momentum and that anyone finishing below Al Sharpton should just give up now so we can have a real debate with the candidates that actually have a chance.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

16. What are the numbers in IA, NH and SC?

There was a poll that said 60+% of Dems couldn't name a single candidate. That tells me that this poll is probably name recognition. Check the states where the candidates are actually campaigning to see how their message is playing.



On edit:


Iowa: Dean 25, Geppy 21, Kerry 16. From Aug. 25-27 moe=4 http://www.thechamplainchannel.com/news/2441485/detail.html

S. Carolina: JL 13, JE 10, Dean 9, Kerry 8 http://www.prolife.org/nat100.html

New Hampshire: Dean 38, Kerry 17 moe=4.5 http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=729

[valniel]

17. See latest Time/CNN Poll

About the same ranking among people who had an opinion!

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

18. These are national polls.

Note my edit above for the relevant polls that are taking place where the candidates are actively campaigning.

[polpilot]

20. Dean #'s are incredible for this point in the process. Portends a

trouncing for Bush.

Dean '04...