2004 House Seats

[mndemocrat_29]

I've put together a list of fifteen House seats that I think we could win in 2004. I've also added six House seats that I think we could win under the right set of circumstances. I know there are more, and I would love to hear what other people think would be races that we could take. Here is a list of the fifteen that I think we are most likely to win. (Keep in mind, we have to win, I believe 13 seats, in order to take back the House. Also, I listed fifteen because we have to keep in mind that if we win by one seat, one of those four Reps. who didn't vote for Nancy last time may abstain again).

Arizona-1
Connecticut-2
Georgia-11
Georgia-12
Indiana-8
Iowa-2
Kentucky-3
Minnesota-2
New Mexico-1
New Mexico-2
North Carolina-8
Pennsylvania-6
Pennsylvania-15
South Dakota-AL
West Virginia-2

Alternates
Alabama-3
Colorado-7
Florida-22
Iowa-4
New Jersey-7
Pennsylvania-4

Personally, I think that if we put forward a great message and great candidates, we could conceivably win all of these.

[DJcairo]

1. Because of redistricting Dems

have no chance of taking back the house in 04. But hey, why not try!

[MuseRider]

2. That is the plan however

if they continue this course they are on even that may not save them. MANY are getting entirely fed up with the Republican lock step and see it for what it is and what it will do to them as citizens.

[AWD]

3. HEY!!!

Thanks for the confidence.....

[mndemocrat_29]

4. Some thoughts on these

The best shot that we have is in Georgia-12. Gore received 55 percent of the vote here in 2000. Nader received 1. The Democratic candidate in 2002 was the son of an unpopular state senator, and the district is 48.1 percent minority. Additionally, Max Burns is far more conservative than the district thought he would be. If we can get this seat into the Democratic column, it will become a safe seat.

[ButterflyBlood]

5. You forgot Iowa-1

Gore carried this district in 2000, and Nussle is way way to the right of his constituents. How he fared better than Leach last year is beyond me, my guess is he had a real lousy opponent. A decent one can sink him.

And I wouldn't consider CO-7 an alternate, it's probably the most vulnerable GOP seat after AZ-1, unless redistricting goes through.

Also Indiana-2.

[CarlBallard]

6. In Washington

WA-8 is a long shot but a good candidate and some cash could make the difference, especially if there's coat tails. On the other hand WA-1 is pretty vulnrable if Inslee runs for Governor.

[ButterflyBlood]

8. we already have a candidate I believe

one of the Spokane county commisioners is running.

[jiacinto]

12. Isn't that the Nethercutt seat?

And isn't the other seat Dunn's?

[Ediacara]

13. WA-1 is Inslee, WA-5 is Nethercutt

I think (if Inslee wins the gov primary) we'll keep his seat, but probably won't be able to snag WA-5. WA-8 is trending more and more Democratic, and if the Dem nominee really hammers Dunn about how she is not a moderate, and how the district is really pretty liberal (voted decisively for Gore), then we'll win it. I think we'll take the seat by 2008 anyway...

[NewJerseyDem]

15. Not decisively

WA-8 gave Gore 48.6% of the vote. It would be really hard to beat Dunn in a district that is really a tossup in an open race.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

10. Ballard.

That's a good Washington name.

[goobergunch]

7. Candidate recruitment problems are killing us

PA-6: Dan Wofford declined to run, so if St. Sen. Connie Williams doesn't run, we don't have anybody.

PA-15: Most of the strong candidates on our side aren't running.

[NewJerseyDem]

9. My thoughts

I think that NJ-5 would also be an alternate. The congressman there is Scott Garrett, a freshman, who is perhaps one of the most conservative in congress. The district leans slightly to the republicans but if we have a really good candidate who runs a good campaign we could win. It is unlikely but possible. Also, there is the potential for a republican primary challenge from moderate republican assemblyman David Russo who lost in the three way primary last year but a bloody primary could hurt the republicans.

NJ-7 will be really hard to win. Unfortunately, this seat is more republican than in the past and Mike Ferguson won pretty easily last year. And since Ferguson is sort of moderate he is likely to win reelection. Still, I would hope that we can find a good candidate and it may help that this is a presidential year and turnout will be up and most likely the district will be pretty close between Bush and the democrat.

MN-2, NM-2, CT-2, PA-4 and WV-2 all will be really hard to pickup. Capito will probably win if she runs but if she runs for governor we will have a good shot there. Simmons is pretty popular due to his moderation and is pretty entrenched in Connecticut. NM-2 and MN-2 seem too republican to pickup and if we lost last year in better circumstances I doubt we can bean an incumbent. I really doubt if we can knock off Hart under almost any circumstances.

I would also add FL-10 and FL-15 as alternates because they may very well be open seats and in that case we will have a chance, particularly in in FL-10.

WA-5 will be an open seat and it leans republican but it will be an open seat so we have a chance. IA-1 is pretty democratic but Nussle seems pretty popular. IN-2 also is a long shot but it is quite unlikely since Chocola is now an incumbent.

And finally, KY-6 may have a special election in late 2003/early 2004 if Ernie Fletcher is elected governor and even though it is a pretty republican seat DC Political Report says that Treasurer Jonathan Miller may run in the special election and he could win. However, I doubt that he would run just a couple months after being reelected as Treasurer, if he is reelected.

[Mass_Liberal]

11. THis is

a lovely positive outlook. I dig it.

:kick:

[Ediacara]

14. Don't forget Montana-AL

With the right candidate, this seat is competative. I think the Dems will have a good year in Montana in 2004, and we may take this seat on gubinatorial coattails.

[mndemocrat_29]

16. I tend to agree on Montana

There's a good chance that Brian Schweitzer will be elected governor and that the state will go for a Democratic Sec. of State. If Democrats can take this state's three electoral votes, I'll bet we can beat Denny Rehberg as well.

[NewJerseyDem]

17. I doubt it

Rehberg did get 65% of the vote last year. It would be unlikely that anyone could knock off a republican incumbent in such a republican district. If only Montana got another congressional district like it almost did in 2000 then we could probably have one of those.

I believe that Montana-AL is the most populous congressional district in the country so the people of Montana are really badly represented in the House of Representatives and are likely to get another district in 2010.

[ButterflyBlood]

19. Rehnberg only got 51% in 2000

in 2002 the Democrats put up a really lousy candidate they didn't bother to back at all. Montana isn't as solidly Republican as most people think, remember that Baucus won in a landslide and Burns was almost beat in 2000. If the Democrats get a strong candidate I think it's possible to beat him.

[Ediacara]

20. Montana-AL is not "such a Republican district"

in 2002, the state party didn't get any 1st tier candidates to run against Rehberg. Instead a 17th tier candidate Steve Kelly, who is a professional artist ran as a Democrat and did fairly well when the state party was acting as though he didn't even exist.

Max Baucus was decisively there in 2002.

In 2000, the Republicans for governor, senator, and representative each win by about 51%, and that was mostly coattails from the huge Bush win.

By the way, Mike Taylor (disco student loan scammer running against Baucus) actually got FEWER votes than Steve Kelly did, which isn't exactly how I'd imagine a "Republican district" to act

[NewJerseyDem]

22. Well

Baucus is a popular incumbent who is a moderate democrat that has served in the senate for 24 years. Also, Taylor's campaign wasn't exactly the best. Dropping out in the middle of the race isn't exactly advisable. Just look at Ross Perot. Democrats can win in some really republican states. Just like Lincoln Chafee represents Rhode Island which is one of the most democratic states in the country.

The governor's race really doesn't matter becuase either party can win in any state. A democrat is governor in Wyoming, Kansas, and Oklahoma. While Republicans are in New York, Massachusetts, and Vermont.

And the House seat was an open seat. Incumbents hardly ever lose in reelection. The reelection number is something like 98% so only a handful of incumbents lose each year.

Conrad Burns is one of the most conservative senators in the Senate and is one of the least well known senators. And to add to that he is probably a racist. Few states would ever even consider electing someone like that.

[David__77]

18. I'm glad to read all this. Let me mention one CA longshot...

CA 11: Richard Pombo did win with 60% last time, but the district is trending Democratic, 2002 turnout was disproportionately GOP, and Pombo is a real extremist. I think if a good east bay Democrat could be found to self-fund the race, we could at a minimum hold Pombo to a low margin.

I'll work on that! The point is that this conversation on a large level is good. We need good candidates everywhere. The GOP did the "impossible" in 1994, and we need to prepare to shatter conventions as well.

[AWD]

21. Everyone of these threads....

....should be promoting exciting Dem races in Ohio 16 and Wisconsin 5.

Both races have DUers running.

[indigo32]

32. You Da Man

Jeff,
I'm behind ya all the way.

[JeniB]

23. I just heard yesterday that in NH we finally have a popular

state senator, Burt Cohen, who's going to oppose Judd Gregg for his seat, New Hampshire-1. We'll keep trying.

[FightinNewDem]

26. NH

Judd Gregg is New Hampshire's senior senator, not the 1st congressman. Jeb Bradley represents the 1st district.

Cohen is a good man, and has been a good state senator, but he is probably too liberal to win statewide. He represents what is probably the most liberal senate district in NH, centered around Portsmouth, a gentrified seaport. Nonetheless, he is running an energetic campaign, and deserves credit for his efforts.

Bradley has yet to draw a serious opponent. The only announced candidate is State Rep. Corey Corbin, a Republican-turned-Democrat. Corbin has a reputation as something of a lightweight vaporhead, a guy who gloms onto an issue when he can win some press coverage, but never follows through with the tough work needed to pass legislation. Very few Democrats take him seriously. (He also seems to be inflating his military record, claiming to be a "veteran", when his service consisted of reserve duty without any activiations for Haiti, Iraq or Bosnia; this is a very big no-go in military circles!)

[nator311]

24. CO 3

CO 3 could be in play now since McInnis has announced that he will retire. This isn't a far-fetched idea since Ben Nighthorse Campbell held this seat back when he was a dem. Also, the ski resort areas in the district are trending towards the democrats.

[mndemocrat_29]

25. Excellent

This seat should definitely be in play. If we run a moderate Democrat, it should be competitive. Colorado Democrats will probably come out in droves, because of the redistricting.

P. S.: I know that the redistricting made CO-7 more Republican. Did any districts become more Democratic (ie CO-3) as a result? This may be just wishful thinking, but I'd like to know.

[NewJerseyDem]

29. Actually the opposite

CO-3 will become more republican if redistricting goes through. The two democratic districts of CO-1 and CO-2 just become more democratic. That is why we are unlikely to pick up the seat. Otherwise this seat is about evenly split between Gore/Nader voters and Bush voters. We would probably have to keep a Green off the ballot in order to win and that would be unlikely.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

27. CT-2 can be won next year!

Rob Simmons(R) democratic rival Joseph Courtney ran a great campaign but he was underfunded and only started to fight about 3 months to LATE! Otherwise a the Dems would have already had this seat!

[burr]

28. Former peanut brigade members gather behind 12th district candidate.

from the AJC...
"The Peanut Brigade keeps marching along

Those old Carter connections still count for something.

Members of the family of Athens-Clarke County Commissioner John Barrow were big Carter supporters, and it was as a young foot soldier in the presidential campaign that the young Barrow met future Sen. Max Cleland.

On Monday, Cleland endorsed Barrow in the 12th District congressional race to unseat incumbent Republican Rep. Max Burns.

'I've known John Barrow for over 25 years. He is the only candidate in this race both willing and able to stand up for our veterans in the halls of Congress,' Cleland said in a statement released by the campaign.

Cleland's is the latest of several endorsements for the Athens Democrat, including former Lt. Gov. Pierre Howard and state Reps. Louise McBee of Athens and Tom Bordeaux of Savannah."

<http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/insider/index.html>

[mndemocrat_29]

30. Wonderful

GA-12 is a must. If we can't win back GA-12, we'll be in for a really long election night. Even if we don't win back the House, we still need GA-12, which wouldn't be nearly as expensive in a reelection bout for a Democrat.

[TakebackAmerica]

31. TheThe Top 6 House Races of 2004. [4 pickups and 2 Vulnerable Democrats.]

Weak Republican Incumbents


Anne Northrup- Kentucky 3rd Congressional District 52-48
Highly Competitive:

Since her 1996 election, she has survived 3 Democratic onslaughts.
Her fundraising prowess has helped hold on to the only Democratic leaning district in Kentucky. This is the only district in Kentucky that Gore carried, and it has a sizable black and union population. If Democrats put up a strong candidate, they will be in a strong position to reclaim this district.

John Hostettler- Indiana 8th Congressional District 51-46
Highly Competitive:

It was named the “Bloody Eighth” because of its reputation of close elections stemming back to 1984 when Frank McCloskey beat Richard McIntyre by 4 votes, 116,645 to 116,641. Since 1994 Rep. Hostettler has survived 4 close reelection bids. Yet Hostettler has raised only the paltry sum of $5,018.
Expect this race to be heavily targeted by Democrats, who have a top notch candidate in Jon Jennings.

Weak Republican Freshman

Max Burns- Georgia 12th Congressional District 55-45
Highly Competitive:

Max Burns was able to ride to victory during the Republican sweep in Georgia. He would be extremely vulnerable against a strong opponent. Also this is a predominantly Democratic district making Max Burns the weakest Republican freshman.

Rick Renzi - Arizona 1st Congressional District 49-46
Competitive:

This is a classic swing district. Rep. Renzi dodged a bullet when Steve Udall was upset in the Democratic primary by George Cordova. Despite outspending his opponent 2-1, he still won by only 49-46. If Steve Udall runs, or another strong Democrat gets into this race, it could quickly become one of the closest House races in America.











Weak Democratic Incumbents

D Dennis Moore- Kansas 3rd Congressional District 50-47

Highly Competitive: The sole Democratic congressman in Kansas is highly endangered. After 2 close reelection bids, expect Republicans to go aggressively after this district. If Republicans avoid their annual primary bloodbath and Bush running strong in Kansas, this could be the year Republicans defeat Rep. Moore


Most Vulnerable Democratic Freshman

D Rodney Alexander- Louisiana 5th Congressional district 50-50

Highly Competitive:
Rep. Alexander’s narrow victory over Lee Fletcher was a major upset. Republicans are expected to heavily target this race. Bush carried this predominantly conservative district by 21 points in 2000 and with Bush on top of the ticket, could make this race too close to call.