EDWARDS Has an EXCELLENT chance at being the nominee

[liberalpragmatist]

Think about it: If Dean wins both Iowa and NH, Edwards is very well-placed at being the alternative. Whoever wins South Carolina will be Dean's opposition. That MAY be Kerry, but probably not. If Kerry loses NH, he's probably out. Either Edwards or Lieberman will win SC, and I think Edwards will get it. With that, he'll emerge as Dean's opposition and it'll become a Dean-Edwards showdown through Super Tuesday. Dean could obviously become the nominee -- he'd be very well-placed; so would Edwards, however. It would be VERY close.

That's why I think it's stupid for people to dismiss Edwards' chances. They're quite decent if Kerry is out of the race, and REALLY good if Gephardt's out.

Of course, for Edwards to be competitive, he'd need a good running mate to tackle the inexperience issue. Kerry might be good, but I doubt he'd take it after going for the Presidency. Chris Dodd may be nice, so could Fmr. Sen. George Mitchell (at least for 1 term) or Carl Levin.

[DJcairo]

1. You forget that there are 6 other states that vote the same day

as SC and Dean is using his money to run TV ads in most of them.

[liberalpragmatist]

2. I never said Dean's not got a great chance

I just said Edwards could be VERY competitive should Dean knock out Gephardt and Kerry

[pruner]

3. not just TV ads…

he's also running radio ads on stations with predominantly Latin/African American listeners.

[DemPopulist]

6. So is Edwards

I live pretty close to the Oklahoma border and I've seen Edwards' ads on local TV. He has a great shot there, a decent shot in NM and Arizona (where he has some nice endorsements), and probably a good shot in North Dakota and Missouri if Gephardt isn't in anymore. Delaware's the only February 3 state where Dean would be overwhelmingly favored.

[CMT]

4. you make some valid points

However, I don't write Dean off in SC especially in a crowded field. He is only one-point behind Edwards in the state according to new Zogby poll--and Zogby says that South Carolina could be heavily influenced by what happens in Iowa and NH.

Still, you are corrrect if Edwards wins South Carolina he will be alive to fight another day and could emerge as a strong rival for the nomination.

I think Mitchell given his experience would be great with Edwards. But, when questioned about experience all Edwards has to say is: "I've had six years in the Senate, George W. Bush had six years as Governor of a state where constitutionally the Lt. Governor holds more power than the Governor especially in regards to the budget."

[renie408]

7. Bingo

Experience is only an issue NOW. If he wins the nomination, the Bush people can't really touch it. He will have had as much experience in public service as Bush did when he ran. Also, if they touch 'experience', Edwards can say that he was at least successful before he entered public office and that while his 'experience' was not of the silver spoon variety, it helped him to gain a special view of the struggles and concerns of Americans.

I honestly think that Edwards would be a tough candidate for Bush to get a handle on. I think he would be the perfect anti-Bush candidate.

[comradebillyboy]

5. what have you been smoking? can i get some?

edwards is ok but he seems to be making little progress. too soon to really make predicitons.

[chimpymustgo]

8. Uh. That's the point. It's too early to make predictions.

Anything can happen, including Edwards being very competitive. It is a very plausible scenario.

[Flying_Pig]

9. Pragmatist???

Urk!
:evilgrin:

[DemBones DemBones]

10. Interesting thought -- Edwards as the AntiDean.

It could work.