The 7 Big House Races of 2004. [6 pickups and 1 Vulnerable Democrat.]

[TakebackAmerica]

These 3 have barely survived their last 3 elections.
If we better finance their opponents, we could take 2 out of 3, or sweep all 3.

Anne Northrup Kentucky 3rd Congressional District
Heather Wilson New Mexico 1st Congressional District
John Hostettler Indiana 8th Congressional District

It's time to send these freshmen home.


Max Burns Georgia 12th Congressional District
Rick Renzi Arizona 1st Congressional District
Bob Beauprez Colorado 7th Congressional District

The sole Democratic congressman in Kansas is highly endangered.

Dennis Moore Kansas 3rd Congressional District

[wrkclskid]

1. A couple points

Hostetller is vulnerable, when I was assigned to check this summer at my internship, he had only raised around $5,000, and the DCCC has already set up a ground team in his district. Gingrey is a well-known doctor and despite the high black voting poulation (the gop considers any district with over 24% black ovting age population vulnerable, the party of Lincoln my ass) he has great fundraising skills and his personality gives him cross-over appeal, I will honestly be surprised if we can knock him off. Wilson may be difficult, especially cause the DCCC alreadys tarted running adds against her about her voting for the House prescription drug bill, which turned a lot of voters off cause it is kind of early (though people always claim to hate negative adds yet they often work), but the NRCC has admitted "Wilson is the only Republican who can keep this seat" (also for James Leech of Iowa.) The solution to Wilson may be to run a more moderate dem rather than the more liberal candidates that have run against her in the past.

[ButterflyBlood]

2. I say gerrymander New Mexico

this is war, if that ass Tom DeLay's going to do it, do it back. With some restructuring both GOP members of New Mexico's congressional delegation can be easily taken out, with no serious threat to Udall. Adding a few heavily American Indian areas to Wilson's district and she's toast.

[TakebackAmerica]

3. Are Northrup or Renzi vulnerable?

Renzi really lucked out when Udall was upset in the primary.
Also Northrup eked it out against Jack Conway.

Any chance we can recruit good canidates here?

[wrkclskid]

4. Candiates are lining up to challenge Northup

as they have since she won that seat, cause it is supposed to be a heavily dem disitrict, I don't know what keeps her in power but suppouse we could pick it up somehow.

[ButterflyBlood]

6. I have no clue how Northrup survives too

it's a very union heavy, black heavy district and Northrup's just a typical right wing bimbo, nothing special about her.

[TheYellowDog]

12. She barely survives, Butterfly

52-48% in 2002. I would give her about a 70% chance of being defeated in 2004 IF we field a strong candidate, and IF our candidate has some money

[TakebackAmerica]

5. WOW!

What was it like being in intern at the dccc?
I worked last year on Oregon Secretary of State Bill Bradbury's campaign against Senator Gordon Smith.

[wrkclskid]

7. Unfortunately I was not an intern at DCCC

I was an inern at the American Osteopahic association (bi-partisan) at their department of government relations, which is how I know so much. The DCCC need I say, needs to revamp a bit, though the good news is that Steny Hoyer has agreed to help recruit house candidates again, he did a good job of recruitng candidates for 96, 98 and 2000 that helped the dems close the gap. Most of the analyses I got were from the notes my boss took from a meetings with both parties campaign committees (it's how I got the gem about the 24% black rule with the repukes.) My job was to scan campaign newsletters and keep track of deelopments. Truth be told, I miss the insider info. I would personally loe a chance to help re-build the DCCC. Campaigns are great fun to work on I worked the summer before on the campaign of Bill Curry against our repuke Goernor John Rowland and hope to help a dem unseat another ulnerable Incumbent, Rep. Rob Simmons, Ct's 2nd district, though unforutnately the best candiate, Joe Courtney has decided not to run.

[TakebackAmerica]

8. That's really intresting

Keep up the good work!

[wrkclskid]

9. Thanks you too

Part of the reason that conseratives have come to power is that they were willing to get involed at all levels, dems need to do that too.

[valphoosier]

10. Indiana 2!!

I'm biased, but Indiana will be a major player in the fight for the House in '04. Indiana 2 and, even more so, Indiana 8 (Hostettler, who you pointed out) could (and in the case of IN-8, SHOULD) be pickups in '04.
There will be no Presidential race in IN, so the GWB is not likely to have as much pull down-ballot.
In the 8th, the Democrats have a strong candidate in Jon Jennings (http://www.jenningsforcongress.com/), and IN 2 is a true 50/50 district in which the Dem (Jill Thompson) ran a horrible (HORRIBLE) race in '02.

[wrkclskid]

11. Yes I remember The reukes are worried about district 2 also

Sucks she ran a bad campaign, but almost every dem. did in 2002, what a horrible night that was.

[mndemocrat_29]

13. IN-2 will be hard

I think Jill Long Thompson ran a horrible campaign also (even if it had been a halfways decent campaign she would've won. Bush spent every waking hour campaigning for Chris Chocola and he still barely won. If Thompson had put forward even a little more effort, that seat would be ours.) However, Chocola does have incumbency now, which will be hard to overtake.

Hostettler is probably the second most likely Repuke incumbent to be taken down in 2004 (after Max Burns). Both seats should go to Democrats.

[mndemocrat_29]

14. I think we can pick up both NM seats

Gov. Richardson's support may help a lot in ousting Reps. Wilson and Pearce.

[TakebackAmerica]

15. What about Rick Renzi?

Is he vulnerable or a we conceding the seat to him?

[mndemocrat_29]

16. We aren't conceiving Renzi's seat

He's going to beat (hopefully by Steve Udall).

[TakebackAmerica]

17. Is Dennis Moore vulnerable?

I know he's holding a very republican district in kansas.
Last 3 elections

2002 50-47
2000 50-47
1998 52-48- Beat an incumbent

I hope he isn't defeated!

[ButterflyBlood]

18. that's actually the most Democratic district in Kansas

but that's still pretty Republican by normal standards. Moore's going to have another tough time but I think he'll pull it off.

[davidinalameda]

19. how about WV-2

if we get a good candidate in there, we could take that seat back

Capito is nothing more than a Bush puppet and I think that people in the district are beginning to realize that