Dean takes slight lead in Iowa poll (6 points)

[Rose Siding]

Howard Dean has taken a slight lead over Dick Gephardt in a poll of those likely to attend the Iowa Democratic caucuses, giving the former Vermont governor an advantage in the two states with the first presidential contests this January.

Dean was at 23 percent; Gephardt, a Missouri congressman, 17 percent; and Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, 11 percent, in the Iowa poll conducted by Zogby International. A third, 32 percent, were undecided and all other candidates were in single digits.

In New Hampshire, which holds its primary a week after the Jan. 19 Iowa caucuses, Dean holds a 12-point lead over Kerry. Dean has been drawing big crowds at rallies around the country, raising millions of dollars and aggressively buying TV ads in early states.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2003/09/10/national2200EDT0922.DTL

edit subject line to include amt of lead :-)

[joeybee12]

1. Thank you Holy Joe and Nancy Loser Pelosi!

The more they throw unwarranted garbage at him, the more Dean surges!

[bluestateguy]

2. Gebhart is finished

Dean, Clark and Kerry just need a strong 2nd. Gebhart cannot lose Iowa.

[hedda_foil]

3. 6 points is a little more than a "slight lead."

[Rose Siding]

5. I know- I used the published title

SIX points! and I tipped a bottle for the 2 or 3 pt lead in the last poll that had him ahead. Look at the growth since April! SURGE is more descriptive.

[phishhead]

6. For real.

I was expecting like a 1 or 2 point difference for a "slight lead."

But then again, I guess these things can change in a short amount of time.

Although, I don't see Dean's numbers going down anytime soon. :)

[dofus]

4. A slight lead?

Dean's at 23 percent, Gephardt at 17 and that's a slight lead?

I realize the caucuses are, what, four months away, but that's pretty impressive so far out.

I can tell you that the MO-KAN Dean group have chartered two busses, one hundred people, to go to the Harkin Steak Fry in Indianola, Iowa, this coming Saturday. I doubt the Gephardt people will be in such force.

[Cha]

7. It's those Freakin' Grassy Roots!

Or the Dean tsunami!

[Andromeda]

8. Hope he maintains his lead.

Looks good so far.:)

[tedoll78]

9. Question

Anyone have a link to that study saying that Dean supporters are more likely to actually show-up at polls and caucuses? I'd be interested in seeing how these polls relate.

[sandnsea]

10. I have no doubt about that

They show up at meetups and rallys, they'll certainly show up to vote.

[tedoll78]

11. I'm an example.

I've never voted in a primary or caucus before, but here I am now. This is going to be so great, going to the convention here in Austin. Work and school can wait.. this is top priority for that day.

[indigo32]

13. I think it's great that more people are getting involved

I have been to several caucuses in the past and have voted in every primary and election since I was eligable. We need more people voting. I

[ISUGRADIA]

19. No study fact but my opinion

Dean seems to have very devoted supporters compared to some of the candidates. This will help him here especially if we get a snowstorm on Jan 19 or it's 20 below out.

For those who are not familiar, there is no absentee voting in the caucuses. A person has to show up in the evening and commit at least an hour of their time or more depending on how the caucus is run and how things go during the shifting of people to achieve 15% of the caucus to get delegates.

A candidate can have 29 of 200 people at a caucus supporting him or her but if one more person does not join the group, the candidate gets 0 delegates so it is as if no one turned out for him or her at that caucus in the reporting. Only delegate numbers count, not raw numbers.

This will also help Dean as I think he might be a lot of the lower ranking candidates' supporters' second choice that will shift to him from unviable groups.

[jos]

12. 4% for Holy Joe!

Very impressive.:nopity:

[Freddie Stubbs]

14. He's doing better than Kucinich, Braun, and Sharpton

[helleborient]

15. Gettin' ready to pack the parka for some winter work...

In neighboring Iowa!!

[CMT]

17. I live in Wisconsin

and will donate a couple of weekends to Iowa this winter, but we will be having a key primary shortly after Super Tuesday too.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

16. Moe +/- 4.5%

Good news.

[LuminousX]

18. Wonderful News

Solid growth. This is good news.

[burr]

20. Nationally Clark shows up among the top four contenders...

but clearly has some catching up to do in these first two states. I can't help but wonder...if Clark does get in, is Iowa really worth the effort? He has a better shot if he could come in second or even a strong third in New Hampshire, and then focused on winning South Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, and Oklahoma.

[jeter]

23. I agree. Skip Iowa.

It worked for Clinton in 1992. It worked for McCain in 2000.

[LuminousX]

21. According to other post..

this must be a lie. Dean is supposedly losing traction with Democrats as they 'wake up' to his fishy flip-flopping ways. Since this doesn't jibe with the perceptions of these people, this poll must be heavily biased.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

22. Of import is that

Kerry dropped 2 points, even though this poll was taken after his announcement. I'm still scratching my head over this development. I guess statistically his standing is unchanged. Where's the bump I expected him to get? As Lieberman's campaign circles down the drain, I would expect Kerry, Dean and Geppy to accrue the support of those jumping ship.

:freak: