2005: The Governor's Races

[mndemocrat_29]

Though it's a long way off, 2005 will have two Democratic governor's races up for election. Here's my analysis:

The Lowdown
Democrats will have to play a lot of defense in 2005, as there are only two seats up for grabs and both are currently held by the left. Democrats will have their work cut out for both of the seats, but hopefully the left will be able to hang onto the majority they’ve gained in 2004.

New Jersey
Gov. Jim McGreevey will be running for reelection. New Jersey has become one of the most reliably Democratic states in the country (witness back-to-back-to-back victories in 2000, 2001, and 2002). The legislature is up for elections in 2003, and that could easily add another victory to the Democrats’ track record. New Jersey Repukes biggest problem is the lack of viable candidates. The most viable candidate would be For. Gov. Christie Todd Whitman, but I seriously doubt she’ll want this seat (she seems more likely to run for the Senate). The House (where New Jersey Republicans hold six seats) would be the next most likely place to find a challenger. However, Republicans may be leery to give up a House seat. Four of the seven districts (NJ-2, 3, 4, and 7) went for Gore, and would be picked up by the left. Additionally, New Jersey’s other two Republican seats have only marginal victories for Bush. The Republicans will probably end up with Doug Forrester, their failed nominee in 2002, as the candidate. Forrester won’t be a terrible candidate, but he’d be considered second tier at best. The most likely way Gov. McGreevey will leave office is through a primary challenge, something that Democrats may consider.
Prognosis-Safe Democratic

Virginia
Gov. Mark Warner can’t run for reelection in 2005 (I’m still hoping he’ll run against Sen. Allen in 2006). Republicans and Democrats, two years in advance, basically already have their two candidates. Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine will be for the Democrats and Atty. Gen. Jerry Kilgore for the GOP. This race will be close. Virginia has always been very moderate (I don’t understand why Democrats always dismiss it presidential races). If I had to give someone an edge, I’d say Kaine, simply because Gov. Warner is so popular and will help Kaine out.
Prognosis-Vulnerable

[mndemocrat_29]

1. Does anyone know where to find which states have term limits?

n/t

[NewJerseyDem]

2. US Term Limits

I believe I saw once on that organization's website a list of term limited governors but I'm too lazy to try to find it again.

[mndemocrat_29]

7. Thanks for the info

For anyone else who's interested, here's the list:

http://www.termlimits.org/Current_Info/State_TL/gubernatorial.html

[NewJerseyDem]

3. New Jersey is not safe!!!!!

McGreevey is very unpopular in the state and is very vulnerable. I too think that a primary challenge is fairly likely, probably from Steve Rothman or Rob Andrews if it happens. If McGreevey goes head-to-head against one of those two congressmen I would consider that to be probably a toss up.

The republicans really have some horrible potential candidates. Doug Forrester is an idiot. He is really about the worst candidate for any office in the history of the world. You just can't help but start laughing whenever he talks. Bret Schundler is probably the favorite for the nomination. He did pretty bad against McGreevey in 2001 but now that McGreevey is so unpopular he could have a chance. Everyone just assumes that Schundler will run but he is too conservative for the state but I'm very worried he could slip in like Forrester was about to do in 2002. There are several other potential candidates include St. Senator Tom Kean, Jr, State Senator Diane Allen, Congressman Frank LoBiondo, St. Senator Joe Kyrillos, Assemblyman Michael Doherty and Congressman Rodney Frelihuysen.

Tom Kean, Jr is young, moderate and the son of the most popular New Jersey politician in a long time. Kean is perhaps too inexperienced and too young and may not run for a few years. He did lose the republican primary for congress in 2000 which was surprising.

Allen is also moderate but lost to Forrester in the 2002 senate primary and probably couldn't win a primary.

LoBiondo says that he will break his 2006 term limits pledge so that certainly indicates that he won't run, but he has been mentioned a lot.

Rodney Frelighuyesn comes from a powerful republican family of politicians since the 18th century. He is pretty moderate and would be a good candidate but hasn't expressed any interest in running.

Joe Kyrillos is the state republican chairman and would probably have a lot of party support. I'm not sure how conservative he is on social issues considering that most republican politicians are fairly moderate in the state. He would probably be a good candidate for the republicans and he is on TV a lot so people may have heard of him.

Assembyman Michael Doherty has been mentioned as a statewide candidate recently but is unlikely to run if Schundler runs.

Christie Whitman probably won't run. She isn't very popular anymore from what I understand but I haven't seen any recent polling data. She is much more likely to run for senate in 2006 or 2008. Congressman Mike Ferguson has ruled out a run and Republicans would love to see Former Governor Tom Kean run but he has resisted attempts to get back into elected politics for over a decade now.

[FRAFG]

4. 2005?

2005 is a long way off.

[NewJerseyDem]

6. It isn't that long

Campaigns last so long that by early next year there will probably be republican candidates running in New Jersey. It seems like the two Virginia candidates are pretty much already running and there could be a primary challenge to an incumbent in NJ.

We've looked at 2006 senate races already and I think there was a post about Norm Coleman's 2008 reelection campaign so 2005 is pretty close compared to that. The DU likes to look ahead to the future.

[mndemocrat_29]

8. We do look ahead

Always be prepared!

When I said that McGreevey was safe, I was assuming that he made it through a primary battle. Unless Christie Whitman (or Tom Kean Sr., I forgot about him) run, McGreevey's opposition will be someone along the lines of Forrester. Repukes will think that they can sneak Forrester in since he did better than expected in 2002 (just like they snuck Christie Whitman in following her near ouster of Bill Bradley). McGreevey vs. Forrester will result in a McGreevey victory. However, McGreevey vs. Rob Andrews would probably result in an Andrews victory. Andrews vs. Forrester would be a guaranteed Democratic victory.

[NewJerseyDem]

9. It is important to be prepared

We have to be ready for that very crucial 2024 presidential election. I wonder who will run.

But, I don't think that Forrester will be the nominee. Forrester isn't that popular. The republicans couldn't find any candidates in 2002 so they just got him because he had a lot of money. Bret Schundler is the hero of the conservatives here, sort of like Tom McClintock perhaps in California. The republican party insiders didn't even want Schundler to win in 2001 because he was too conservative and would be harder to work with. Schundler is expected to run and will be the favorite but McGreevey is just so unpopular that I'm really concerned. But, if somehow the republicans nominate a moderate, good candidate like Tom Kean, Jr. or Diane Allen or even Joe Kyrillos then I think McGreevey would probably lose. I would have a lot of trouble supporting McGreevey against someone like Tom Kean, Jr. I really don't trust McGreevey at all and I don't think that most New Jerseyans do either.

Whitman and Kean, Sr. probably won't run, but if Tom Kean, Sr. ran then he would almost certainly win. Whitman probably couldn't win a primary, the conservatives hate her.

[mndemocrat_29]

10. Do you think that Whitman could overcome a primary challenge

for a Senate election in 2006 or 2008?

(Harold Ford, Jr. for President in 2024!)

[NewJerseyDem]

13. Maybe

Since Schundler probably won't run for senate after two gubernatorial races, there probably won't be a very strong conservative challenge unless someone like Congressman Scott Garrett were to run or St. Assemblyman Michael Doherty, but they aren't that well known. Her closeness to the Bush Administration will probably help in a primary but would hurt in the general election. It became harder for her to claim to be a environmental moderate after her time at the EPA.

She would probably be the favorite but she really isn't conservative at all. She is basically a centrist on most social issues and most conservatives found her spending habits as governor to be basically in line with most democrats. She still is blamed for the budget deficit. It would really depend on who is the candidate opposing her and also what happens in 2005. There were some signs in the 2003 legislative primaries that suggest that conservatives aren't as powerful in the primaries than they were in 2001. All conservative challenges to incumbent republicans failed. Maybe the republicans realize that the real right wingers can't win a general election after seeing what happened to Shundler in 2001.

I'm not a fan of Harold Ford, Jr. He is for school prayer and vouchers. He is actually a Blue Dog.

[ButterflyBlood]

11. What about Franks?

even though he lost to Schundler in the primary in 2001, he probably would have a better chance of beating McGreevy since he is more moderate. He also didn't do too bad against Corzine, despite being vastly outspent.

[NewJerseyDem]

12. He said he won't run again

After losing to Schundler in 2001 he said he won't run for elected office again. He has become one of the chief lobbyists for the pharmeceutical industry in DC. He is credited with convincing 10 of the 13 NJ congressmen to vote No on drug reimportation. He is probably pretty happy at his high paying lobbying job.

[mndemocrat_29]

14. I'd heard this,

which was why I didn't consider him. Franks would've been a fairly competitive competitor in 2005.

[davidinalameda]

5. Kilgore has been running for governor since the last election

such a freaking yutz