NC: Burr leads Bowles, Blue in U.S. Senate race, poll finds

[goobergunch]

By ROB CHRISTENSEN, Staff Writer

Republican Rep. Richard Burr of Winston-Salem holds an early lead in next year's race to replace Democratic Sen. John Edwards, according to a new statewide poll. Burr leads two prospective Democratic opponents, Charlotte investment banker Erskine Bowles and Raleigh attorney Dan Blue, the survey found.

Meanwhile, Democratic Gov. Mike Easley, who plans to seek a second term next year, continues to show resilience despite a battered economy and 2 1/2 years of budget crisis, according to the survey of 600 likely voters conducted last week by Research 2000 and commissioned by The News & Observer.

<snip>

When asked whom they preferred in the 2004 Senate race, likely voters said they preferred Burr over Bowles by a 43 percent to 37 percent margin with 20 percent undecided. They said they liked Burr over Blue by a 45 percent to 33 percent margin, with 22 percent undecided.

<snip>

In a Democratic primary, Bowles was preferred over Blue by a 31 percent to 17 percent margin among likely Democratic voters, with 52 percent undecided.

more...http://newsobserver.com/news/story/2874015p-2650222c.html

Very nice PollTrakker article...it was hard to get it down to 4 paragraphs. :shrug:

[joeybee12]

1. I'm really disappointed with Edwards for losing us a "safe" seat

Today is proof he will not get the nomination--he announces officially, and the news only covers Clark.

[NewJerseyDem]

2. It wasn't going to be a safe seat

We should be thankful that Edwards won the seat in the first place. This is North Carolina and you can hardly expect a democratic senator there. No matter what Edwards did he would have had a tough race in 2004 if he ran.

This poll is really troubling. I would think that Bowles would have an advantage since he already ran statewide and Burr is just one congressman out of 13 in North Carolina that those in many of the other districts probably never heard of.

[ButterflyBlood]

3. It wouldn't be safe with Edwards in it

he had no better chance than Bowles.

[burr]

4. Are you kidding?

We're talking about an underdog Democrat who came out of nowhere and beat tobacco nut Faircloth in the center of tobacco country. Edwards was the one individual who demonstrated that the right kind of campaign would allow Democrats to win in states like North Carolina. I think Bowles can still win, but I believe Edwards wouldn't of been beaten.

[ButterflyBlood]

14. well his polls up to then

showed that he has similar ratings to Bush and dropping at the same rate. It's also mostly agreed that he doesn't have much chance of carrying North Carolina if he were the nominee, so if that's true his popularity must be down. whatever the case, this is hardly a safe seat (as would be the case if Graham decides not to run, but I think he will.)

[MattNC]

9. Edwards

had a decent lead on Burr IIRC.

[mndemocrat_29]

5. Bowles will increase his margin

once he actually joins the race. We'll have Sen. Bowles by 2005.

[jiacinto]

6. This is the "cursed seat"

Since 1974 it has switched parties every six years.

[goobergunch]

7. The curse may be broken now that Jesse Helms has retired (n/t)

[ButterflyBlood]

13. and that

for the first time since then, there's an open field

[burr]

8. 2002 was political milestone in its own cursed way...

perhaps 2004 will be another milestone, one that will end this 30-year trend.

[CMT]

10. so Burr has a six-point lead over Bowles

that is not insurmountable. Bowles has a lot of work to do though.

[burr]

11. so would Blue...

The main thing the 4% margin of error shows me is that Blue and Bowles both have the same level of support against burr. And both are remain unknown to North Carolina independents, despite their previous statewide campaigns.

[Rooktoven]

12. speaking as an ex-tarheel

I wish there was a third candidate. I know Elaine Marshall did poorly, but she was underfunded and unheard.

David Price would be an interesting alternative--but I'd hate to lose him in the House.