AP: NH poll shows race tightening

[DJcairo]

WASHINGTON -- Howard Dean holds a 10-point lead over John Kerry among likely voters in the New Hampshire primary, according to a poll that shows the race tightening between the two New Englanders.

Dean, the former Vermont governor, had 31 percent in the poll by the American Research Group of Manchester, N.H., while Kerry, the Massachusetts senator, had 21 percent. The remaining candidates were in single digits; 27 percent were undecided.

Dean's lead over Kerry is half the size it was in a New Hampshire poll late last month and slightly smaller than a 12-point difference a week and a half ago.

Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri was at 8 percent, and Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut had 5 percent. Florida Sen. Bob Graham, North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and retired Gen. Wesley Clark, who entered the race Wednesday, had 2 percent, while Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich and Carol Moseley Braun had 1 percent. Al Sharpton had 0 percent.

While two-thirds of those surveyed had a positive view of Dean and Kerry, only a third of the primary voters had a similar opinion of Lieberman.

Seven in 10 voters are familiar with Clark, but only 22 percent had a favorable view of him, while 5 percent were unfavorable. Forty-three percent said they don't know enough about the retired general yet to form an opinion.

The poll of 600 likely primary voters was taken Sept. 14-17 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Copyright © 2003, The Associated Press

http://www.newsday.com/news/politics/wire/sns-ap-new-hampshire-poll,0,3476131.story?coll=sns-ap-politics-headlines

[ryharrin]

1. Is this even one of the same polls as the ones the article is comparing

it to? I hate when there are misleading headlines like this, comparing different polls. Everyone knows that you can't compare between polls, just changes within the same one.

[KaraokeKarlton]

2. But next month Clark will replace Kerry at number two

And Kerry will drop down into oblivion.

[Nicholas_J]

4. From the data

It may be Dean dropping into oblivion. He has gone from 38 point to 31.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

10. Pay attention, now -- Poll to Poll

Dean actually widened his lead in NH, in the American Research Polling. From 28% last poll to 31% in this one.

It was Zogby that had him at 38%.

[Nicholas_J]

16. Dean lead dropped from

17 points a month ago, to 12 points a week ago, to 10 points today. Dean has not widenened his lead. His lead has DROPPED far quicker than it took him to get his lead to begin with.

The point of the article is that his lead is narrowing, and is narrowing rather rapidly.

A few New Hampshire Newspaper polls have Dean dropping significantly over the las two days since Clark was added to the list and one such poll has Clark Dean even with Dean already.

Same thing is happening with Dean lead in Iowa over Gephardt. Withing two weeks of the labor Day kick off, Gephardt has pulled even with Dean, and Gephardt is the one showing much greater forward momintum un that poll, where Deans polling numbers seem to be stagnant.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

17. In ARG Poll, his lead has grown...see post #15 (nt)

[arcos]

22. Links?

I want to see those "few New Hampshire newspaper polls"... got any links?

[CMT]

19. actually Dean's lead in the ARG poll has gone up

from seven percent in August to ten percent now in September.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

3. Tightening the noose around Kerry's neck.

[polpilot]

13. Great news for the Dean campaign. We can now identify the 'also rans'

Dean '04...pacing...pacing..not a sprint...pacing

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

14. Yessir.

[clar]

5. I think Kerry's

obstacles are nearly insurmountable. He's been all but drowned out. Even the Feinstein endorsement got only a glance. His campaign needs something to get it going.

[blm]

7. Yeah...why does the media do that?

Even Reliable Sources asked why Dean gets a free ride when Kerry gets beat up?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

11. Everybody loves an underdog.

That's why.

[DJcairo]

8. I think Kerry is forming a formindable campaign organization

With David Wilhelm (former Clinton campaign manager and DNC chairman) in Illinois running that state's Kerry operation and Feinstein's endorsement in CA. He also lead in endorsements by state legislators in Iowa and his NH campaign is run by the husband of Gov. Jeane Shaheen. Dean has clearly benefited from early free press (almost all of it positive) and only recently has the campaign really heated up. Look for Kerry's strong organization and fundraising to reap big rewards down the stretch. The campaign has only just begun.

[rads]

6. bad journalism

I'm pretty sure that the article is comparing these results with the outlier Zogby poll from awhile back. The last ARG poll from August had Dean up 28-21, so if anything this could be looked at as a slight Dean uptick.

[Demobrat]

9. As of today (from the blog).

A new New Hampshire ARG poll today shows that Dean widened his lead from 28% to 31% since the August ARG poll. His nearest competitor showed no change from last month.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

12. Dean beating Undecided 31% to 27%

Finally! I hate that Undecided. He's not a real Democrat.

[Rose Siding]

15. If you want apples to apples, here's the last ARG poll

August 19, 2003
Dean Jumps into Lead Among Democrats in New Hampshire

Bolstered by television advertising, Vermont Governor Howard Dean has jumped into the lead in ballot preference and favorability among likely Democratic primary voters in the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Preference Primary according to the latest New Hampshire Poll. In ballot preference, Dean leads with 28% to 21% for Senator John Kerry and 10% for Congressman Dick Gephardt. As for candidate favorability, 63% of likely Democratic primary voters have a favorable opinion of Dean, 61% have a favorable opinion of Kerry, and 47% have a favorable opinion of Gephardt.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

So the lead, according to this particular polling company has actually *grown* by 3 points.

[CMT]

18. Wow!! Dean's lead has grown from 7% to 10% in ARG poll

He has a ten-point lead in the ARG poll now!! Great. Last ARG poll in August had Dean up by seven--so this is a three point gain for Dean in this poll.

More good news for Dean--Thanks for posting!!

I don't think anyone seriously thinks Dean is going to take NH by 21-points. This poll, however, does indicate that Dean still has an strong advantage in a state that earlier this year was solidly for Kerry.

[DemDogs]

20. Same pollster: Bush beats McCain by 20 in NH

Haven't paid much attention to ARG since.

[CMT]

21. that is my problem with the ARG poll

they undercount independents in their polls. Independents by a huge margin voted in the GOP primary in NH in 2000. This year, becuz of the competitive Democratic race they will be a huge factor in the Democratic primary. Becuz they undercount independents they didn't see that McCain built his win in 2000 from independent rather than GOP voters. Same thing this year. For the last several months Dean has actually been doing better with Independent voters against Kerry than Democratic voters and that will be a key in 2004.