Momentum Shifts In NH - Kerry Quickly Closing Gap

[DrFunkenstein]

WASHINGTON - Howard Dean holds a 10-point lead over John Kerry among likely voters in the New Hampshire primary, according to a poll that suggests the race is tightening between the two New Englanders.

Dean, the former Vermont governor, had 31 percent in the poll by the American Research Group of Manchester, N.H., while Kerry, the Massachusetts senator, had 21 percent. The remaining candidates were in single digits; 27 percent were undecided.

Dean's lead over Kerry is about half what it was in a different New Hampshire poll late last month but close to the 12-point difference in another poll a week and a half ago.

While two-thirds of those surveyed had a positive view of Dean and Kerry, only a third of the primary voters had a similar opinion of Lieberman.

Wesley Clark, who entered the race Wednesday, had 2 percent.

Seven in 10 voters are familiar with Clark, but only 22 percent had a favorable view of him, while 5 percent were unfavorable. Forty-three percent said they don't know enough about the retired general yet to form an opinion.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&e=19&u=/ap/new_hampshire_poll

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[arcos]

1. different polls can't be compared...

the article is wrong.

[unfrigginreal]

2. Interesting Spin...

from the same article:

In the last ARG poll, in mid-August, Dean was 7 points ahead of Kerry, 28 percent to 21 percent.

So, Dean improves by 3 points in this same poll from a month ago, now giving him a 10 point lead on Kerry, but the momentum has shifted. HAHAHAHAHAHA!

[DrFunkenstein]

4. Selective Memory Is Convenient But, Well, Selective

Dean had his big bump after that poll, which itself was part of his ascension. Since then he has hit a brick wall, with Kerry building up steam.

:think:

[caledesi]

5. Tell that to Californians and Iowans.

[unfrigginreal]

6. Nothing selective about it...

Kerry did not move one point in this poll from a month ago but Dean moved ahead three points. The momentum is obviously still with Dean.

[opstachuck]

7. dean, lieberman, braun, kucinich, and clark...

were the only ones to gain any points in this poll from ARG, and Dean had the biggest increase with 3%. Kerry stayed the same. So who hit the wall? Here are the details...
http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

[clar]

3. Posting this is a mistake

Dean is the one who gained in this poll, not Kerry.

[LuminousX]

8. What?

Who is interpretting these numbers?

Candidate Sept/Aug/Jun
Howard Dean 31%/28%/19%
John Kerry 21%/21%/25%

It actually looks like Kerry's support is slipping. 25% to 21% while Dean has gone from 19% to 31%.

Interestingly enough, the awareness polls indicate people seem to be forgetting who Kerry is. In July he was at 100% and now he is at 92%. Okay, I jest, this bit actually proves that polls are only guidelines, estimations and can't be taken too seriously.

[DrFunkenstein]

9. Wait - Who's This Kerry Guy?

Isn't that the warmongering DLC whore from Skull & Bones? I was so busy paying attention to whether or not Gore and Hillary were going to run, I'd forgotten all about him.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

10. Dean's flip-flops may be coming home to roost.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

11. Read the other posts on this thread

On the contrary, Dean continues to gain in NH.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

13. Every few days there is a new story about a new Dean flip-flop

it was bound to start taking a toll.


http://news.google.com/news?q=dean+flip-flop&num=100&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=wn

[DrFunkenstein]

14. Like Dean's Own Rhetoric

The truth lies in what's left out. True of his "anti-war" position, true of his I/P position, and true in ignoring the Zogby polls that everyone here flipped out over.

[unfrigginreal]

15. You Kerry folks are something else...I hope ...

that you'll be able to come back into the fold after the primaries. I really worry about that, with hateful posts toward Dean.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

16. Jumping the gun a bit, aren't you?

lol

[DrFunkenstein]

18. You Guys Really Are Thin-Skinned

When have I ever been hateful to Dean? I give him a hard time, but nowhere near the attacks I've put up with - civilly - on Kerry.

Kerry's been called a warmongering DLC whore from Skull & Bones, too aloof and too arrogant to be President, not to mention both Bushlite and Deanlite.

Have I really ever said anything in that neighborhood?

This is not Dean's blog, and you are going to have to deal with people who don't share your enthusiasms.

[unfrigginreal]

20. Well here's a little sumpn sumpn for you and the guy/gal before you!

I'll proudly vote for Kerry if he wins the nomination! Will you do the same if Dean wins the nomination?

[Feanorcurufinwe]

21. Of course.

This IS DEMOCRATIC Underground right? Call me unimaginative but I always just vote the straight Dem ticket, usually work on GOTV with the county Dems, too.

On edit: umm, I would vote for Dean if he got the nomination. Proudly? Well, I'd be proud to vote against Bush no matter who I was voting FOR.

[unfrigginreal]

24. It's a shame that you couldn't proud of it...but what the hay...

if you'll promise the vote than we'll take it!

[RevolutionStartsNow]

17. Is there a new Zogby poll?

If I missed it, sorry. I just objected to the original article that was posted that claimed Dean's lead was slashed in NH. They used the Zogby poll to show the big lead, and then the recent ARG poll showing a smaller lead. You can't compare different polls and get an accurate assessment.

All that being said, I do expect Kerry to be closer in the next Zogby in NH. That 21% lead seemed a bit much, and Kerry has been running ads there. (Then there's the Clark factor...) I suspect Dean's true lead is something closer to 10%, which is fine with me. And just wait til those Texans get there this weekend!

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

12. Keep posting it. Keep believing it.

Sad.

[dean4america]

19. can't compare different polls

the models are different.

compare the last two ARG polls and get back to me.

[UnapologeticLiberal]

25. Dean had a 7-point lead in the last ARG poll

So he has gained by 3 points, though this gain may be within the margin of error

[Mass_Liberal]

22. Meh!

10 points is still 10 points. The fact that Dean is still leading Kerry in Iowa, New Hampshire, California, South Carolina (not wholy sure about that one, but I heard it somewhere), and other states, needs is a large factor to whether kerry is catching up in general

Peace:kick:

[RevolutionStartsNow]

23. Kerry press secretary in NH quit?

Or was she asked to leave? Anyone know? Has she been replaced?

Just to confuse things, Dean's NH spokeswoman is named (Dorie) Clark.

"Mark Fabiani, strategist for Clark, said that Kym Spell, former New Hampshire press secretary for John Kerry, is joining the Clark press office in Arkansas. Spell, who quit the Kerry campaign this week, could not be reached for comment. Spell was deputy communications director for Al Gore's 2000 campaign."

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2003/09/18/national1732EDT0712.DTL