The Top 12 House Races of 2004.

[TakebackAmerica]

The Top 12 House Races of 2004. <4 Vulnerable Republicans and 4 Vulnerable Democrats and 4 Races to Watch.>


Endangered Republican Incumbents


Anne Northrup- Kentucky 3rd Congressional District 52-48 50-48 Gore
Highly Competitive:

Since her 1996 election, she has survived three Democratic onslaughts. For the 2002 campaign, Democrats recruited Jack Conway. He ran an aggressive campaign against Rep. Northrup. Despite being outspent 2-1, Conway was able to keep this race close throughout. Northrup hammered Conway on his close ties to embattled Governor Paul Patton. On Election Day 2002, she won a narrow victory, 52-48. Her fundraising prowess has helped her hold on to the only Democratic leaning district in Kentucky. This is the only district in Kentucky that Gore carried, and it has a sizeable black and union population. If Democrats put up a strong candidate, they will be in a solid position to reclaim this district.

John Hostettler- Indiana 8th Congressional District 51-46 56-42 Bush
Highly Competitive:

Indiana’s 8th Congressional District was named the “Bloody Eighth” because of its reputation of close elections stemming back to 1984 when Frank McCloskey beat Richard McIntyre by 4 votes, 116,645 to 116,641. This district is the epitome of a swing district. According to the “2002 Almanac of American Politics,” this district at one point during the 1970s elected four congressmen in four successive elections. Since 1994, Rep. Hostettler has survived four close reelection bids. Yet Hostettler has raised a mere $5,018. He is the exact opposite of Northrup, having been out- spent, in two of his last three races. Rep. Hostettler has grown accustom to the close elections in the district. Expect this race to be heavily targeted by Democrats, who have a top notch candidate in Jon Jennings.

Most Vulnerable Republican Freshman

Max Burns- Georgia 12th Congressional District 55-45 54-45 Gore
Highly Competitive:

The father of Max Burns’ opponent, State Senate Majority Leader Charles Walker Sr., created this district for his son, much to the dismay of the voters. Rep. Burns was able to use voter dissatisfaction with Democratic redistricting and President Bush’s popularity to his advantage. On Election Day, Charles Walker Jr. and his father were defeated. The perception of Democratic gerrymandering haunted Georgia Democrats that year. This is the only district in Georgia that Al Gore won that is represented by a non black Democrat. Rep. Burns would be extremely vulnerable against a strong well-financed opponent. This predominantly Democratic district is the wrong place for a conservative like Max Burns. Rep. Burns is the weakest Republican incumbent in America.


Rick Renzi - Arizona 1st Congressional District 49-46 51-46 Bush
Highly Competitive:
Update: Change from Competitive to Highly Competitive
This is a classic swing district. Rep. Renzi dodged a bullet when Steve Udall was upset in the Democratic primary by George Cordova. National democrats were disappointed at Udall’s defeat and were slow to give to Cordova. Rep. Renzi outspent Cordova 2-1. Republicans also poured over four million dollars into this race. Renzi was bolstered by a last minute visit by President Bush. After all the money Republicans spent and Bush’s visit, Renzi only won by 49-46. The result of the election showed how close this swing district really is. If Steve Udall runs, or another strong Democrat gets into this race, it could quickly become one of the closest House races in America. Update: It now appears that Paul Babbitt, Bruce Babbitt’s brother, will run against Rep. Renzi. This development could provide Democrats thill the top notch candidate they have sought

Endangered Democratic Incumbents

Dennis Moore- Kansas 3rd Congressional District 50-47 53-42 Bush

Highly Competitive:
The sole Democratic congressman in Kansas is highly endangered. After two close reelection bids, expect Republicans to go aggressively after this district. Against heavy underdog former Air Force pilot Adam Taff, Rep. Moore won by only 50-47. This moderate suburban Republican district is a misfit for a liberal Democrat like Moore. There have been bitter Republican primaries in the last two elections. They have pitted a moderate, electable Republican against an ideological conservative. In both elections the more conservative was chosen over the moderate. If Republicans avoid their annual primary bloodbath and nominate a moderate, this could be the year the Republicans defeat Rep. Moore.

Jim Matheson- Utah 2nd Congressional District 67-31 Bush

Highly Competitive:
In 2000 Rep. Matheson defeated Republican Derek Smith who had upset embattled Republican incumbent Merrill Cook in the Primary.
Republicans radically changed the lines in this district, taking out most of the metro Salt Lake City areas. On the heels of their successful redistricting, Republicans recruited John Swallow to run against Rep. Matheson.
In a race that went down to the wire, Matheson prevailed by 2,015 votes out of 214,961.If the Republicans have a strong candidate, expect this once again to be one of the tightest races in America.

Most Vulnerable Democratic Freshmen

Rodney Alexander- Louisiana 5th Congressional district 50-50 57-40 Bush

Highly Competitive:
On November 5th, Lee Fletcher defeated Clyde Holloway 24.5 -23.0 to move on to the run-off. Former frontrunner Holloway was still bitter after his loss. He staged a press conference to bash Fletcher, saying, “He is not what this state needs. ….He will do anything to win and he scares me.” One week before the election, a Mason-Dixon poll showed Lee Fletcher leading Rodney Alexander 48-40. On December 7, Rodney Alexander, in a major upset, defeated Lee Fletcher 50.3 -49.7. The increased black turnout due to Sen. Mary Landrieu close re-election battle may have carried Alexander over the top. Republicans are expected to heavily target this race. Bush carried this predominantly conservative district by 21 points in 2000 and with Bush on top of the ticket could make this race too close to call.

Jim Marshall- Georgia 3rd Congressional district 50-50 51-47 Bush

Highly Competitive:
Despite being outspent 2-1, Marshall eked out a victory over Calder Clay III 50.5 -49.5. This was after Democratic redistricters tried to move as many minority voters into swing districts as possible. This was followed by a surge of outrage from voters. They promptly defeated Governor Roy Barnes, electing the first Republican governor in Georgia in 128 years, unseating Senator Max Cleland. The Speaker of the House and the Senate Majority Leader were both swept away in the GOP tide. They elected Phil Gingery and Max Burns to districts specially redistricted for Democrats. Rep. Marshall was lucky escape the Republican tide that had enveloped so many of the state’s Democrats. Bush narrowly carried this swing district, 51-47. Expect this to be one of the top 10 house races of 2004.

Races to Watch

Earl Pomeroy: Last year he narrowly survived his first close challenge in years. The only congressman in a Republican state, Rep Pomeroy is very vulnerable to a Republican challenge. North Dakota’s all Democratic Delegation will eventually end and Pomeroy could be the first of the Democratic trio to go. In 2000 Bush won 62- 33 this could be an omen that Rep. Pomeroy’s days are numbered.

Ken Lucas: Kentucky’s lone Democrat, Rep. Lucas, keeps Kentucky’s tradition of electing at least one Democrat since 1828 alive. But in a district that voted Bush by an overwhelming margin, 61-37 Rep. Lucas will always have tough fights. This district is so conservative that in 2000 despite outspending his opponent buy more than 9-1 he only won 54-44. Once he retires or is defeated Democrats will be hard pressed to take regain this district.


Tim Holden: Republican redistricters eliminated Rep. Holden’s district put him in unknown conservative territory and pitted him against veteran GOP congressman George Gekas. Though Bush won this district by 56-41 this turned out to be a terrible mistake for the Republicans. Gekas had not been in an election battle since he was first elected. Gekas seemed stiff and did not campaign well. While Holden knocked doors and ran a strong and aggressive campaign. Despite the GOP sweep, Holden squeaked through on Election Day, 51-49


Tim Bishop: On July 17 1999 Rep. Mike Forbes shocked everyone by announcing that he would switch parties and become a Democrat. This set into motion one of the weirdest two election cycles in recent history. Democrats immediately embraced Forbes’ decision as an omen of the Democrats retaking the House in 2000. But the National Republican Congressional Committee wisely ran ads and put up bulletins calling Forbes an extremist. Local Democrats wary of Forbes did not fully support him and instead backed Regina Seltzer. Mrs. Seltzer on Primary Day, September 12 2000, in a stunning upset, defeated Rep. Forbes by 35 votes out of12,119 votes cast. The GOP celebrated and their nominee Felix Grucci coasted to an easy victory 56-41. Grucci lead his opponent by 30 points in polls just six weeks before the election. Grucci ran a negative ad that miserably backfired. Tim Bishop blasted him with ads attacking his environmental record. On Election Day 2002, Tim Bishop upset Felix Grucci 51-49. Who knows if 2004 will bring another bizarre election?

[LouKYDem]

1. Anne Northrup

Oh I would LOVE it if Anne Northrup (that's what Bush called her, he didn't know it was NORTHUP) loses her seat in 2004! Wow, it's hard to believe that she will already be up for reelection next year, lol, but of course, that's what it is like when they have two year terms.

[NewJerseyDem]

2. Some responses

Northup, Burns and Renzi seem very vulnerable. If we run good campaigns there we have excellent chances for pickups. Hostettler's district is pretty republican but he has an odd voting record. He was one of 6 republicans to vote against the war but he has a ridiculously conservative social record. He also has some self imposed capaign finance restrictions I believe. He could be vulnerable but it will be hard.

Rodney Alexander should be in a really tough situation. We will be lucky if we can hold that seat. Dennis Moore is also vulnerable but every year he should get into a better situation. I don't know if I would describe him as a liberal democrat though. Jim Matheson should be the favorite. He has developed some more conservative and his situation seems similar to Moore's. Jim Marshall should be fine. He won an open seat so he is clearly the favorite for reelection. Republicans in the state will probably be focused on defending two of their seats anyway.

Tim Bishop should be fine. I would be quite surprised if he lost. Ken Lucas is breaking his term limit pledge and that may just lose him enough votes to lose. That will hardly be much of a loss though. Tim Holden also should be able to win. He was able to beat Gekas who was an incumbent so I think he will have an advantage in 2004. Earl Pomeroy is very vulnerable. Byron Dorgan seems safe so republicans may just give him a pass and focus on Pomeroy which could mean defeat for Pomeroy.

[RowWellandLive]

3. Earl Pomeroy

Does he have a credible challenger? I just don't get N.D. They vote overwhelmingly R for Prez but have all D representation. Who are the high profile R's there aside from ex-Gov Shaeffer who's not running? What goes on in that state? S.D is stange too, but with Thune and speedy Janklow at least they are somewhat consistent.

[ButterflyBlood]

10. I used to live there

the people aren't too political. since it's such a small state the Democrats are able to get more one on one with everyone and explain all the good things (pork) they do for the state and point out that they'll vote for a partial birth abortion ban or against some gun control measure to prove they aren't "too liberal" and the people accept it. but since that's not an issue in presidential elections, they vote Republican, especially since the Democrats running are more visibly liberal. (although arguable just as liberal) also the state used to be more Democratic (go look at the 1988 election results) and the congressional delegation made a name for themselves back in the day, and can still win based on their name recognition.

Pomeroy should be OK since his opponent in 2002, Tax Commissioner Rick Clayburgh is up for reelection this year, and probably will run for reelection. The only other Republicans capable of beating him are Gov. Hoeven (also up for reelection and will run again), and Schaffer who's confirmed he's not running and if he did would run for Senate. All the other state officials except the Agriculture Commisioner and Treasurer (and Superintendent of Schools but that's a non-partisan election) are Republicans but don't have the name recognition or popularity yet to knock off any of the congressional delegation.

[Lexingtonian]

4. Link or source, please?

Btw, these are pretty naive picks and descriptions. Whoever wrote up these descriptions really doesn't have a clue that overall the Republicans had 7% higher turnout, on average, than Democrats.

None of the Democratic incumbents they list are the most endangered, and in most cases they look to have larger rather than smaller margins in '04. Matheson, Holden, and Moore were in their first election after hostile redistricting. Alexander and Marshall have picked up a lot of support in their new districts and Bishop has done well too- they're not considered actually vulnerable. Lucas and Pomeroy simply didn't take the '02 elections seriously enough and the differential turnout almost got them.

I'd keep Renzi and Burns on the most vulnerable Republican list- both have districts unhappy with the sloppy/stupid (Renzi) and radical (Burns) behavior of the lot. Don't forget that Renzi got elected on negative campaigning and disunity of Democrats in that district, Burns got elected because 'Champ' Walker was a stinkeroo propped up by the local Democratic establishment because his daddie was a big poobah in the Georgia Party machinery.

Northup and Hostettler are safer, really- Northup has kept that seat for two or three elections simply because the Democrats have put up stuffed suits who seemed to district Democrats to be in the pocket of the big corporations. And it's not clear that Kentucky Democrats are going to do any better this time around. Hostettler really embarrasses his district, that's why Hartke did so well against him- but it is really a rural Christian Right district, Hartke would be a one termer.

As vulnerable Democrats go, one or two Texas Blue Dog districts look like to be lost even if there is no change in districting. Ralph Hall's seat is a Republican one whenever he chooses to retire or not put up a sufficiently energetic defense. Charlie Stenholm's district is drifting Republican. And Ken Lucas, if he retires from that seat, practically hands it over to the Other Side.

Vulnerable Republicans- in my humble opinion, in '04 it's all about picking up the underperforming minority-heavy districts we should have snared in '02. The most winnable districts seem to me to be Renzi's, Burns's, Beauprez's (Colorado 7), Rogers's (Alabama 3), Gingrey's (Georgia 11), Bonilla's (Texas 23). Bush is doing so badly in NM that maybe Wilson's (New Mexico 1) will finally fall. Chocola's (Indiana 2) would also be a likely pickup if Long-Thompson runs a good campaign. And who knows about the South Dakota seat when Janklow resigns.

[dusty64]

5. I think 2004 could produce

a backlash against incumbents in general and rethugs in particular. Saw this tidbit today and it looks like Smith isn't very strong considering the unknow opponent he had. Could this be winnable against a stronger opponent? It would seem to me the public is tiring of this cronyism, look at the mess its gotten us into.

Nick Smith REP 299 55.37%
Mike Simpson DEM 214 39.63%
Ken Proctor LIB 27 5%


Congressman's Son Running for Dad's Seat
Fri Sep 19,10:58 PM ET Add Politics - U. S. Congress to My Yahoo!


By DEE-ANN DURBIN, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - Mr. Smith went to Washington. Now his son wants to go there too.



The son of Rep. Nick Smith (news, bio, voting record), R-Mich., said Friday he's running for his father's House seat in the 2004 election. Nick Smith is stepping down because he promised he wouldn't serve more than six two-year terms.


Brad Smith, a patent attorney with Dykema Gossett in Ann Arbor, Mich., has never held an elected office but says he's always wanted to be a politician. He has worked on his father's campaigns since the 1970s and was Steve Forbes (news - web sites)' district manager in the 2000 presidential race.


Brad Smith said his father encouraged him to run.


"I'm leaving a rewarding career and demonstrating that I really do believe in these commitments," Brad Smith said. "I believe in limited government and bringing a local and state voice to Congress.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=512&ncid=703&e=8&u=/ap/20030920/ap_on_go_co/congress_smith

[NewJerseyDem]

6. MI-7 is a good oppurtunity

The seat will be open and it only gave 51% of the vote to Bush. This will be one of the few open swing districts so this seat should definitely be targeted as a potential pickup.

[jiacinto]

7. I think Pomery, Lucas, Bishop, and Holden make it

Of the seats above I think GA-12 is compelling.

[dusty64]

8. If the attempts to reredistrict

by the repukes is considered unlawful by the courts we have a real chance to retake the House.
:kick:

[NewJerseyDem]

9. Probably not

First of all, I really doubt that the courts will stop the redistricting. And I don't think that we have much of a chance to pick up the House even if they do. It is certainily possible considering that anything is possible but it is very unlikely. The incumbent protection plans have left so few swing seats that it is really hard to pick up the necessary 12 seats. And even if we do pick up 12 seats we will need more because Ralph Hall, if he is still around, will vote for Hastert and we can't depend Lucas, Taylor and Stenholm to vote for Pelosi either so we may need something like 15 additional seats which is very hard this early in the decade.

[mndemocrat_29]

11. House Races

I think that we'll take KY-3, IN-8, AZ-1, and GA-12 all in 2004. It's about time we take back the House, and I think that 2004 is the year to do it. KY-3 looks to be either Tony Miller, Steve Henry, or Jack Conway again. Any of these could win. IN-8 will be going to Jon Jennings this year. AZ-1 should be Steve Udall and GA-12 has many candidates, though some of the most prominent ones currently rumored to want it are John Barrow, Tony Center, and For. Rep. Cynthia McKinney.

As for the vulnerable Democrats, most of the ones you listed will be safe. Reps. Holden, Moore, and Matheson all survived in 2002 and will continue to survive in 2004. Reps. Marshall and Alexander are conservative Democrats in the South, they won't lose. Rep. Bishop may have been a surprise, but it is a very moderate district that went for Gore. Pomeroy won't have a very strong competitor, so his seniority will keep him safe. The only really vulnerable Democrats are:
1. Ken Lucas
2. Charlie Stenholm
3. Chet Edwards

[dusty64]

12. Kick.

x