Bush "very likley" re-elect down to 33%

[msanger]

From the Polling Report,<http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm> the "very likely" is down to 33%, from 38% two months ago.

This is on a July 16-17 Harris Poll N=1,004 adults nationwide. It seems like the "dead-enders for bush" are dwindling in number.

"If George W. Bush runs for reelection, how likely are you to vote for him:
very likely - 33
somewhat likely -- 17
somewhat unlikely --10
very unlikely --36
Not Sure --4

[ShaneGR]

1. 50 vs. 46 vs. 4 undecided

I'll take it.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

2. Keep an eye on these polls in the next few days/weeks...

as the SOTU scandal starts to leak into the results. I would expect further drops.

[MrScorpio]

3. As long as ppeople are paying attention

to the truth and not rovian agiprop, this can only get better

[Jim Sagle]

4. Look! Over there! It's Kobe Bryant!

:boring:

[CMT]

5. the really interesting numbers are the very unlikely vs. very likely

more people are very unlikely to vote for Bush than are very likely to vote for him 36-33 percent.

[intheozone]

6. Yea, Yea, Yeaaaaa!!!

OMG, that is so good to see. I think people are finally coming our of that mass coma that struck right after 9-11! Those numbers are so encouraging, they give me a more hopeful feeling.

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

[WatchWhatISay]

7. No, its a Category 1 hurricane

that causes about 1% of the damage last years flooding rains did here in Texas.

[VoteClark]

8. It is the Electoral College silly

While I happen to think that Bush will have about a 20% of reelection in 2004, I don't think these numbers mean any thing. Those numbers don't tell us three things:

1) What the break up is in each state.

2) What the margin of error is. I would assume an alpha of .95 but it doesn't say

3) It doesn't list which potential cnadidates.

This is important. Did you know that a candidate can get 26% of the vote and still win against one other candidate if they win the correct state.
I think the map is still looking like Gore/Bush 2000

J4Clark

[DrFunkenstein]

9. Au Contraire, Mon Frere

Sorry if I killed the French there. But what I think it means in the larger sense is that the anti-Bush people are solidifying, while the support for Bush has become unhinged.

Which means the blue states will stay blue, and at least a few of the red states will turn over.

[valniel]

10. True. But!

From the bottom.

Yes. A candidate could get a bare plurality (can be less than 50% if more than two candidates) in enough states to get 270 electoral votes, and no votes in the rest of the states.
Furthermore, if getting them in small states, e.g., Wyoming or Vermont, where each electoral vote represent a population of about 200 thousand, versus large states, e.g., California & Texas, where each vote represent about 620 thousand, it might theoretical be possible to win the presidency with a lot less than 26% of the overall vote.
BUT IT WILL NOT HAPPEN!!!

p.s. I used projected 2005 population and not registered voters.

3) The July NewsWeek Poll has a candidate breakdown:
Bush/Kerry 50% 42%
Bush/Gephardt 51% 42%
Bush/Edwards 51% 39%
Bush/Lieberman 52% 39%
Bush/Dean 53% 38%

2) I think 95% certainty is correct

[jerryster]

11. poll accuracy

I'd like very much to believe this poll. But I saw another one that was more favorable to smirky. It's hard for me to believe that his very likely numbers are down to 33 per cent. Remember that there are a lot of repugnanticans out there who are going to vote for him no matter how blatant his lies are shown to be. And while it's distasteful, their numbers alone are probably better than the 33% figure here.

[ButterflyBlood]

15. actually, this number seems pretty accurate

33% is around the base on both sides. so we've got the Dem base + about 3% of independents damn pissed off at him. very good signs.

[polpilot]

12. Chimpy's gone. NO DOUBT. He's served his purpose as Whore

Extraordinaire. He's gone. Fact of political life. Sold for a very high price. Replacement impending.

Dean '04

[Americanreborn]

13. Yeah!

Thank God. I do not really understand how anybody could vote for George "Dubya" Bush. I mean, all of the lies that he has spilled out, it is incredible. The simple viewing of the facts will prove that this whole Iraq war was based on lies. In my opinion, if the deaths of American soldiers continue, then that "very likely" to reelect Bush option will sink even lower. I really hope that Bush does not get reelected and although I do not like the democratic party right now, ANYTHING is better than Dubya.

Some reasons that Dubya should not be re-elected:

1. He was not elected in the first place

2. He lied about the War in Iraq

3. He is putting American soldiers in Iraq in harms way needlessly for his own personal gains.

4. He is a hypocrite for going completely back on his campagin platform.

5. He is a liar.

6. He does not represent the American people in a statesmanlike manner. I mean, I disagree with a VAST majority of his policies, but the president should at least look like a statesman on TV and when meeting other foriegn leaders.


Americanreborn

[PROGRESSIVE1]

14. Time for another Orange Level Alert!!!

:)