Can our presidential candidate win Ohio?

[Orangepeel]

Is Ohio in play in 2004? Bush won 50% of the vote in 2000, Clinton won in 1992 and 1996, and aren't approval ratings for the republican governor at an all time low?

[goobergunch]

1. Maybe

OH trends Repuke, but a strong candidate could put it in play. However, if we're winning OH, we probably have enough EV to win without it.

[Orangepeel]

3. Did bush not campaign much in Ohio in 2000?

He won, but not by a lot.

[MidwestTransplant]

4. Good analysis.

If we are going to take Ohio, we likely have the whole Midwest locked up and probably WV too, not to mention the Pacific NW and the Southwest.

[tsipple]

2. Ohio in Play

Lots of veterans (and active duty military) in Ohio, and their enthusiasm for Bush is likely to be tempered. Also, a candidate (like Dean) who is not hard anti-gun might do well in Ohio. Kucinich could help here. If Kucinich does not win the nomination, his endorsement (or lack of endorsement) might be a factor.

[CMT]

5. yes

Gore wrote off the state three weeks prior to the election and still was defeated by only four-points. A governors popularity could be a factor (something which is worrisome considering California and Davis's approval ratings!!) but not the deciding one I don't think in a presidential race where the record of the incumbent should be the issue. I think Ohio will be competed in and if things are still going poorly economically our candidate can win the state, but it wil not be easy.

[Rick Myers]

6. Only 4 counties in Ohio are majority Dem

But the gov'ner is really under ALOT of fire right now!

[Rayjay]

7. Ohio is quite diverse and definitely in play in my view.

Cleveland and several other urban regions are more liberal/Democrat while Cinn and rural areas are conservative/Republican. Interestingly, two of our most progressive politicians in recent history are from Ohio, both from Cleveland: former Senator Howard Metzenbaum and current presidential candidate and former mayor of Cleveland, Dennis Kucinich.

A well known figure whose name I cannot come up with right now said of the state:

Ohio is the southernmost of the northern states, the northernmost of the southern states, the easternmost of the western states and the westernmost of the eastern states.

Thus my claim to its diversity. I do believe the Dems can carry the state and, if they do, I project they will win the national election.

[RedEagle]

8. No Win in Ohio....

I hear Ohio is going to all Touch Screen machines from Diebold. Even Kucinich can't win reelection in that scheme, unless they let one person "win" so it doesn look so bad.

Unaccountable and therefore unauditable voting takes away your vote.

If this situation can't be remedied by 2004, I'd work up an independent exit poll group and see how the results jive.

[OKNancy]

9. Do you think Springer would make a difference?

If Springer gets the Dem nomination it might bring a lot of excitment to the race. Could even get some no voters out. Anyone think it would help Democrats?

[On the Road]

10. Wow -- Never Thought of the Springer Factor

That could certainly tap into the votes of some people who don't usually go to the polls.

[Freddie Stubbs]

15. It would also turn off many voters who usually vote Democratic

It will create an embarassing situation for whomever is the nominee for President. Will they agree to have joing campaing appearences with Springer? Those will go over well when they are replayed on the nightly news.

[obietiger]

11. The Republicans have ruined this state

and many people are upset with them - the whole Taft administration. Springer would bring much excitement to the election and would get more democrats out to vote but the economy will be the big factor here.

[jiacinto]

12. Yes

But I fear the Springer Campaign may be nuclear.

[AnAmerican]

13. Gore lost Ohio by 3.41 % points

or approximately 165,000 votes.

If memory serves the Gore campaign basically gave up in Ohio in the late running, thinking it unwinnable.


That was 2000, in 2004 Ohio's economy is in the toilet, the state is running in the red. Governor Taft is intensely disliked by many.

I think Ohio is definately in play, and ripe for a Democratic victory.
Throw in the the facts that Springer may well energize the base and Dennis, should he win the nomination, can use the "favorite son" tag.

I see Ohio voting for the Democratic candidate. I would venture a guess as to a 52-48 % margin for the good guys. Third party voting (Nader took 2.5% in 2000), should not be an issue unless Lieberman takes the nomination.

The Green Party has some good ideas but were damaged nationally by the Florida issue. Whether or not they deserve the epithat,(I do not think they do) alot of people still cling to the idea that Nader mucked up the election.

[mndemocrat_29]

14. Springer and Ohio

They've done quite a few articles about what Springer could do here. He won't win the Senate seat, but if he is the nominee, he could bring out many new voters, who would vote anti-establishment (ala anti-Bush). However, if Springer is the nominee, he could turn off some more conservative Democrats, who would in turn vote for George Voinovich.