How Does Your Candidate Win The Nomination?

[TSIAS]

I know it's still four months before the first caucus and there is still much to be decided. Things are still changing with Clark's entry and the possible withdrawal of other candidates. Nevertheless, I don't think it's too early to begin thinking about plausible ways that your candidate could win the primaries.

For instance, Dean is hoping to win both New Hampshire and Iowa, therefore putting him in a very strong position.

Other candidates are focusing more on the later primaries. Edwards and Lieberman are hoping to survive Iowa and NH, then making their stand by winning SC.

I'm just curious about how you feel the candidate can get the necessary delegates for nomination. I'm curious, as this is the first primary I've participated in. It's probably the most wide open since 1992. I believe 6 candidates have some shot at the nomination, with 3 emerging as most likely nominees.

--Taylor

[Feanorcurufinwe]

1. Especially the 'long shots'

I won't name them -- we know who they are. I wish I could hear the strategy sessions at one of those campaigns because I really would like to know why they think they have a chance...

[LWolf]

3. Here's an idea:

:think:

Go on out and meetup with 'em. You'll learn why they support their candidate, and what they are doing to work for him/her. And, while you're there, you can join the effort to get the longshots heard!

[PAMod]

2. Well, its not as clear cut as it was in the old days, but

Governor Dean's biggest potential problem is that he has been leading the pack for months, and many will see anything less than 1st in IA & NH as a stunning defeat.

Ironically, with Clark in the hunt, siphoning some of the independent support from him, the expectations may diminish to a realistic level. In my view, if Dean finishes 2nd in IA & NH, he is right where he will need to be for the big push in February.

Dean has raised a ton of money. Enough, perhaps, to keep him in the race right through to the convention. Other candidates will depend on their performances in the early primaries to attract the money needed to continue.

Another benefit of early fundraising success is that Dean will begin to air national ads right off the bat, adding to any early success he might enjoy.

[Rooktoven]

4. Edwards wins by staying on message

I dont mean "the son of a millworker" bit, I mean stating policies. Actually the "mommy and daddy" stuff actually even got old for this Edward's backer--but I think he'll lay off that now and let _others_ make that statement for him-- planting the seed if you will.

He wins South Carolina. If he sneaks a third in Iowa or NH, he's sitting even prettier. Not sure how he takes out Dean-- because I'd love to see Dean as his running mate and let the Dean people take over the internet operation.

If I was following my geek heart totally, I'd be with Dean-- but I think we have a safer margin of victory with Edwards' personal style over Deans.

[Rowdyboy]

5. You ask a powerful, well worded question

and get 4 responses in 3 hours. I'd try if it wasn't so late...Sorry, maybe this kick will stir someone

[quinnox]

6. I like three candidates

Kerry can win by beating Dean in New Hampshire, then building momentum in other primaries until a probable faceoff with whoever emerges from Gephardt/Lieberman/Edwards.

Gephardt can win by taking Iowa, having a solid performance (3rd or 4th) in New Hampshire, then having his union support help in other primaries as well as having the two New Englanders, Kerry and Dean, siphoning votes from each other throughout the race.

Edwards can win by using a southern primary strategy, and having Gephardt knocked off in Iowa by Dean, then using his populist pitch in the more conservative states in the February primaries.

I think they all have a shot at winning, though obviously at this stage Edwards is a darkhorse compared to Kerry and Gephardt.