two new polls give Dean double-digit lead in NH

[CMT]

Howard Dean is leading in New Hampshire by 10-13 points according to two new poll.

Zogby International has Dean over John Kerry by 30-20 with 10% for newcomer Gen. Wesley Clark. Gephardt is at 6% and Lieberman at 5%. Zogby says: "The momentum of the Dean campaign in New Hampshire continues."

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=741

Better news for Dean is in the favorable/unfavorable/unfamiliar tallies:

Dean favorable rating: 72%
Dean unfavorable rating: 12%
Unfamiliar with Dean: 14%

Kerry Favorable rating: 72%
Kerry Unfavorable rating: 21%
Unfamiliar with Kerry 6%

Clark Favorable Rating: 37%
Clark Unfavorable Rating: 13%
Unfamiliar with Clark: 49%

Both Dean and Kerry have high (and similar) favorable ratings, but Kerry's unfavorable rating is nearly twice that of Dean's.

Who has the best chance to defeat Bush?
Dean: 26%
Kerry: 24%
Clark: 19%

The other poll out is the Marist Poll and it gives Dean a 13-point lead over Kerry in NH.

Dean: 35%
Kerry: 22%
Clark: 11%

http://www.maristpoll.edu/

Both polls were taken during the height of the media frenzy surrounding the entrance of Gen. Clark. It indicates that NH can be competitive but that Dean's still has a solid hold on his support in the state.

[goobergunch]

1. Dean's slightly down, but he's still got a commanding lead (n/t)

polltrakker

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

2. Dean still has a higher unknown %, as well.

An extrapolation would give him another two or three point lead.


RiF's eyewear for today!

[Sean Reynolds]

3. Yup.

I think Clark possibly will start taking away the support from Kerry in the long run. So by the end of October I'm guessing it'll be Dean by at least 10-15 points at the top; Kerry and Clark will be in a battle for the second spot.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

4. Kerry MUST win NH.

Dean or Clark don't. Kerry needs to get on this, pronto.

[polpilot]

8. This race has a sense of 'newness' w/o precedent. EVERY political

debt will be called in by Kerry and the DLC in N.H. If Dean is within 5% of the winner in Iowa or N.H. he will be the nominee and elected. My sense is that the race won't tighten and that he will win both by a significant margin. I ONLY believe this because Dean's group has/is innovative and waaaay ahead of the curve every time.


Dean '04...The New Democratic Leader of The NEW Democratic Party.

[quinnox]

5. I think those numbers will

continue to tighten, I think in a month or two Dean and Kerry will eventually be in a near tie in New Hampshire. This one will probably go all the way to the wire. I don't see Clark as a real threat in the state, although a third place would definitely help him.

[CMT]

6. I tend to agree with you on this

I think Dean and/or Kerry will win NH by a narrow margin, but alot will be gained if Dean actually wins Iowa against Gephardt--that would give him a tremendous amount of publicity, but of course the winner of the Iowa Caucus doesn't alway find victory in NH--witness Mondale in '84, Gep in '88, and Bush in '00.

[quinnox]

7. True, Gephardt is in a real struggle

If Dean manages to come out on top in Iowa, Gephardt would be dealt perhaps a mortal blow, and Dean would gain significant momentum for the New Hampshire contest. I think Gephardt knows this, hence his escalating attacks on Dean.

[Loyal]

9. Yeah

I think Gephardt will still take Iowa though, and I think Kerry still has a real chance at New Hampshire. I would wager that Edwards wins SC, and that Lieberman wins New York.