A year away: Electoral Analysis

[UrbScotty]

We are exactly one year away from the Election of 2004.

A year ago, after the horrible election defeat, many people were counting us Democrats out for 2004. For three months, I continually said, “Look, we can beat Bush in 2004,” but to little avail.

We've come a long way since then, from “Forget about 2004” to “Bush is going down.” And while I wouldn’t quite say Bush will for sure lose, I do know that we have a darn good chance. To prove this, let analysis be submitted to a candid DU audience.*

I’ve grouped the states into seven categories: Safe Democratic, Likely Democratic, Leaning Democratic, Toss-up, Leaning Republican, Likely Republican, and Safe Republican.

Maine and Nebraska are pretty interesting. They award one electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district, plus two more to whomever wins the state as a whole. Nebraska is pretty much Bush country throughout, while Maine is different. Maine’s First Congressional District , I think, is all ours. District 2, however, is a little iffy; I put it in my Leaning Democratic column. Overall, Maine as a whole will likely go to us.

Safe Democratic: 37 Electoral Votes

Connecticut (7 EVs), Delaware (3), the District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Massachusetts (12), Rhode Island (4), and Vermont (3), I think, are ours, as is one of Maine’s Congressional districts. It would take a lot to lose any of these.

So, we have 37 electoral votes, and need 233 more.

Safe Republican: 96 Electoral Votes

I think we can forget about Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Mississippi (6), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Texas (34), Utah (5), and Wyoming (3).

That gives them 96 EVs, to our 37. Now, they only need 174 more.

Likely Democratic: 134 Electoral Votes

Have no fear, though. It would take a sizable Bush win to carry California (55), Illinois (21), Maryland (10), New Jersey (15), New York (31), or Maine at-large (Those 2 votes I mentioned above).

Likely Republican: 52 Electoral Votes

Georgia (15), Indiana (11), Kentucky (8), Montana (3), and North Carolina (15), I can only see us winning if Bush is really defeated next year.

Assuming (I know, it’s risky to assume a month before the election – much less twelve months before – but anyway) we win all of the Safe and Likely Democratic votes, and if Bush takes all of the Safe and Likely Republican states, we’d have 171 electoral votes, and need 99 more to win. They have 161 votes, so they would need 109 more. So, we’d actually be ahead.

Leaning Democratic: 74 electoral votes

Iowa (7 votes): Though Gore barely won Iowa, it is considered a ‘peace-loving’ state, from what I understand. Also, how much time has Bush spent seeking votes in his caucus?

Maine 2nd District (1 vote): This is Michaud’s district, and Baldacci represented this district for a few years before becoming Governor.

Michigan (17): My home state went to Gore by about four percent. There was a supposedly strong anti-gun-control backlash against Gore, which was supposed to counteract Gore’s union support in Detroit. Regardless, Bush would really need Detroit’s suburbs to go his way; I think Gore took Monroe County, and almost won Oakland County. His dad did much better in 1992 than he himself did three years ago. Oh, and is Bush a pro-labor President? Uh, no. And then there are the heavily Muslim communities in and around Dearborn, which are less likely to go for Bush anytime soon. Check out on Muslims’ leftward shift.

I’m sorry, I just love talking about the Great Lakes State. Did I mention the Republican governor in 2000 has been replaced by a Democrat? Okay, I’ll move on.

Minnesota (10): No state, excluding the District of Columbia, has a longer presidential-election winning streak for Democrats. Not since Nixon in 1972 has any Republican taken Minnesota – and even that was close. Last year, I think, was not much more than a backlash against Democrats over the Wellstone memorial. Kline’s, Pawlenty’s, and Coleman’s victories, IMO, were an anomaly.

Oregon (7): I think the key is to neutralize the Greens. That’s what almost gave Bush Oregon. Wyden’s support would be very beneficial, too.

Pennsylvania (21): Philly suburbs have trended more Democratic, and I’m hoping Rendell can Get Out The Vote, especially in Philadelphia. And, of course, you have labor.

Washington (11): Much like Oregon and Iowa, Bush almost won Washington because of Nader. Does anyone have an early line on the Murray/Nethercutt race there? (besides the one or two dead soldiers a day not being important)

Leaning Republican: 42 Electoral Votes

Colorado (9): Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell seems very unpopular there. Of course, he doesn’t have tough competition – yet. If he does, I could see a close election if our nominee campaigns and gets out the Latino vote.

Louisiana (9): A lot hinges on the Governor’s race. Remember that Louisiana didn’t go to Bush by that much. It is within reach.

Tennessee (11): How Gore lost his home state, I don’t know. They say it has to do with guns. I do know that Tennessee has a Democratic Governor, which should make things closer.

Virginia (13): Their new Democratic Governor couldn’t hurt, considering he’s popular. And did I mention guns?

Toss-up: 103 Electoral Votes

Arizona (10): Latino turnout is also important here, of course, where a better organized Democratic Party helped elect a Democratic Governor last year. Oh, and Gore didn’t campaign here late in the campaign.

Arkansas (6): Here’s a state with only one Republican member in Congress, and whose, Governor didn’t win in the landslide he was supposed to last year.

Florida (27): Do I need to explain?

Missouri (11): Gore lost here because of the gun issue and because people didn’t think he separated himself from Clinton.

Nevada (5): It took a while for the networks to call Nevada for Bush in 2000. Now, hopefully, we’ll benefit from a higher Latino vote and an anti-Bush uprising regarding Yucca Mountain..

New Hampshire (4): This state was very close, going to Bush by about one percent. New Hampshire voters seem to know the candidates very well, since they’ve been there a lot. I hope that helps.

New Mexico (5): Talk about a nailbiter. Gore won this state by, what, 300 votes? Yet, now, they have a new Democratic Governor (Richardson), and hopefully we can turnout more Latinos (and Latinas ;-)) for us.

Ohio (20): Here’s a state that has lost 15% of its manufacturing jobs this year. Gore lost by four points, despite not campaigning in the last month.

West Virginia (5): Bush’s victory was mostly an anomaly. Our nominee must not be perceived as a rabid environmentalist or gun foe.

Wisconsin (10): Nader made Wisconsin close, too. I want Feingold to work his tail off for himself and for our nominee.
__________________________________________________________________

So... there’s proof that we can certainly win. The question is, what should our nominee do to win?

I think the most important things our nominee ought to do are:

1. Offer a positive plan for the Greatest Country On Earth. That’s why many Democrats lost last year, by not contrasting themselves with Bush and the Republicans. It’s one thing to say, “I am not George W. Bush;” it’s another thing to say, “I am Howard Dean” or “I am John Kerry” or whomever.
2. Get Out The Vote! Appeal to the ‘base’ – minorities, women, etc. – but also, if possible, to men, whites, etc., etc.
3. Reach out to Greens. Be nice. We could taunt Greens for giving the election to Bush and risk a backlash – or we could encourage them to vote for us. Remind them that Democrats share their ideals more than Republicans, and that without their support for us, Bush will win.
4. Don’t appear too anti-gun. Some gun control is good; too much can cost you an election. From what I’ve heard and seen, it cost Al Gore Tennessee, Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio, and West Virginia (51 electoral votes); ended any hopes in Virginia and Montana (16 votes); and almost cost him Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, the state of Washington, and Wisconsin (88 votes). We’re talking 157 electoral votes, folks. Guns are quite the issue for many people.

Your thoughts?

*Guess which famous document I paraphrased.

[Upfront]

1. Also From Mishigan

and you have it nailed there. The rest of your work seems valid to me. Thanks for givinh us hope.

[jogi1969]

2. with Gen. Clark

on the ticket
i would not count SC, AL, AK, TN or any of the other 'southern' repig states on voting for BushCo as a slam dunk.

and Cali may be a tougher fight then we think.

those states that went "the way of the gun" may switch to dem if Clark is heading the ticket

[burr]

6. Clark does have a shot in Arkansas..

sorry if I disagree but no Democratic Presidential candidate can win Tennessee, South Carolina, or Alabama. But Clark can certainly help Democrats win in Florida, Lousiana, and in the border states which Gore lost.

[workenstiff]

10. Democrats can win Tennessee

I live in Tennessee and I know Democrats can win here.
We just elected a Democrat governor - Phil Bredesen.
We were one of the first states to have a major health insurance plan - TennCare (which is in deep trouble, financially)
We have lost 100's of factories to China, Mexico.
We still have Democrats in Congress. But not the Senate.

Al Gore lost here because he was thought to be for gun control and abortion. But he only lost by a small percent.

Howard Dean, if nominated, will face an uphill battle here because of "civil unions" but he is using the bold approach to appeal to people to ignore the wedge issues and vote for their pocketbook.

I hope his message can get out in this state full of fundies.

[burr]

19. posted by fellow working stiff...

How long can we allow our fellow workers to go without healthcare? How much long can we tolerate this make-believe system of unemployment compensation?
How much much longer do must we have an unelected President?

It doesn't have to be this way, money has nothing to do with a genuine message!

This was the election in 1944.

And this is the election in 2000. We have nearly come full circle politically. Shrub's strongest regions is what was <http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/pe1944.html>once the Democrats strongest regions...the south and the west. Gore is strongest where FDR was weakest...in the northeast and in the midwest.
<http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/pe2000.html>

[Redneck Socialist]

3. Great analysis, but...

...at this point I would probably move NH into the leaning Republican column. Support for Bush's handling of the war is still surprisingly strong here. The Democratic nominee has a shot, but alot depends on how people perceive the war is going.

NH voters have a strong independent streak and don't like being deceived. If the media can hammer home the message that Bush is not being forthright that will sway votes in this state. His father faired poorly here because he was seen as out of touch and disingenuous.

[Padraig18]

4. Illinois:

Illinois should be in the 'safe democratic' column. Bush couldn't get elected dogcatcher, if he was depending on IL's votes for the job. IL has voted D the last 3 presidential elections and just put Dems in charge of all 3 branches of state government for the first time in 30+ years.

Illinois is a 'dark blue' blue state. :hi:

[Feanorcurufinwe]

5. One other important thing I would add to your list.

Bush will campaign on fear, that's his whole strategy, so our candidate has to convince the public that he's a stronger leader than Bush who will make America safer in real terms. Take Bush's biggest issue away from him.

[jiacinto]

7. MI and PA should be Democratic next year

In MI the Democrats have done increasingly well in Oakland and Macomb County. Clinton and Gore lost those counties in 1992, but carried them in 1996 and in 2000. Their 2000 showing was better than their 1996 showing.

Same thing for Phila Suburbs. From 1992 to 2000 the Democrats carried Bucks, Delaware, and Montgomery Counties. Their numbers improved steadily from 1992 to 2000. In 2002 Rendell even carried Chester County.

IA, MN, WA, and OR will stay Democratic. They were close due to the Nader voters.

I see these states as the swing states of 2004:

NH
WV
KY
MO
TN
AR
LA
FL
NM
CO
AZ
OH
NV

These are the swing states of 2004. Whoever wins the turf war here wins the election.

[CMT]

11. Michigan and Pennsylvania are always swing states

which will need to be heavily competed for. The Gore victories there were not by huge margins at all and an incumbent president always has a slight edge. It might help having a Democratic governor in those states now.

Ohio, I would have as leaning Republican, but believe that it still should be worked especially if the "jobless recovery" continues.

I see very little hope for Kentucky. A lot will be determined by the governors race tomorrow. Democrat Chandler has been running against the Bush economic record and the loss of manufacturing jobs in Kentucky. If he wins, I will revise my opinion that Kentucky can be competed in (after all Gore lost this state by 16-points). If Chandler loses convincingly I don't think we should waste too much time on Kentucky.

[jiacinto]

13. I disagree

I think it could be in play next year. The Governor's race notwithstanding I would try for it next year as Clinton carried it twice.

The Governor's race is more a reflection of the unpopularity of Patton than the Democratic Party.

Gore's loss had to do with guns and the environment there.

[Township75]

23. Don't count PA as a Dem state in 04...

Normally, Allegenhy county which holds Pittsburgh is solid Dem...but after Bush put on the steel tariffs, those union steel workers love him. He could likely get a ton of votes that went to Gore in 00.

I think Bush would win the state if the election were held today

[a_lil_wall_fly]

8. ih8thegop--OREGON is going to be tough

OREGON is going to be tough for one reason only....

OREGONIANS are tired of the status quo of the two party system. Yes the Green and Liberatarian Parties are going to play hard ball this time around.

The tightest race for '04 in Oregon is going to be Congressman David Wu(district 1)-- why?

38% Democratic
37% Republican
25% Other

Wu has no margin of error and the Republican party has got two very moderate opponents (out of 3).

The rest of the election should go too us the Democratic Party at the federal level but the state level might lose some of them.

[jiacinto]

14. It depends on what the Greens do

nt

[West Coast Democrat]

16. a_lil_wall_fly---You're Dreaming! Wu Will Win Easily!!

Wu Won Easily in 2002 with 62% vs 33% of the vote, he'll have no trouble in 2004. And without the Nader factor, the Democrat should win Oregon easily in 2004.
(Furthermore, the Libertarians will only hurt BushCo and other Republicans.)

[GOPBasher]

9. excellent analysis

One thing I'd change, though: I'd put NY in "safe Dem," rather than "likeyl Dem." Gore won here by 25%! This is safer than Connecticut, which went to Gore by 17.5%. Again, overall, I agree with pretty much everything you said. :)

[beyurslf]

12. Oklahoma

I would move OK from safe to maybe leaning. We have a chance there. They elected a Dem Gov last year. I am in KS and if a Dem wins here, it wouldn't even be an election.
(We always say if Jesus Christ ran as a Dem and Satan ran as a Repub., KS would maybe be in play but it would be a nail biter.)

[jiacinto]

15. OK is safely Republican

It may elect Carson (D) to the Senate, but it will be in Bush's column come next year no doubt.

[leyton]

17. Hawaii = safe dem???

Hawaii: Since they just a elected their first Republican to either Senate or Governor (can't remember) in recent history, why are they safe Democrat? (Correct me if I'm wrong about this...)

Tennessee: I don't know if this counts for anything, but they also elected a member of Senate Republican leadership, so the GOP must think this is a safe state for Frist (and thus probably for the Republicans in general).

[jiacinto]

18. Well

Lingle's victory was due to the unpopularity of her predecessor, Ben Cayetano. HI has voted consistently Democratic--the only two exceptions were 1972 and 1984, when Republicans won 49 state victories.

[leyton]

20. Sounds good

I was also under the impression that they had a Republican Senator or two, but apparently they don't, so yeah, I guess Hawaii is a safe Dem state after all. :)

[UrbScotty]

21. Will Inouye retire?

Has he said anything yet?

[genius]

22. New Mexico, Ohio and W. Virginia will go Democratic If Dennis is

the candidate. New Mexico's Greens (14% in N.M.) will swing that states vote. Gore would have won West Virginia but for Nader. Nader supports Dennis. Dennis will absolutely win Ohio. He regularly wins his half Republican/half Demcratic district by 74%. Even the Ohio Republicans love him.

As for Tennessee, it's coming out now that Gore won and that Bush stole that state.

[UrbScotty]

24. Actually, Gore wouldn't have won WV.

He would have won New Hampshire and Florida, but Bush's margin in West Virginia was bigger than Nader's vote.