Dean Increases Lead in NH (ARG)

[dajabr]

November 6, 2003
Dean Increases Lead Among Democrats in New Hampshire

Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean has increased his lead in ballot preference among likely Democratic primary voters in the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Preference Primary according to the latest New Hampshire Poll. In ballot preference, Dean leads with 38%. Senator John Kerry, the only other candidate in double digits, is at 24%. When it comes to candidate favorability, 67% of likely Democratic primary voters have a favorable opinion of Dean and 66% have a favorable opinion of Kerry.

Of the 38% saying they would vote for Dean, 82% (31% of all likely Democratic primary voters) say they do not expect their support for Dean will change prior to the primary. Of the 24% saying they would vote for Kerry, 50% (12% of all likely Democratic primary voters) say they do not expect their support for Kerry will change prior to the primary.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

On edit: changed title from ARG email which was not accurate

[helleborient]

1. Dean leads again in favorability....

As he has for some time.

I still don't understand why those who claim Dean's pugnaciousness and his drawing of attacks from supporters of other candidates is such a liability when those in New Hampshire who know him better than any other state in the country aside from Vermont give him higher favorability ratings than any other candidate.

The support looks very very solid now, too! 82% think they won't change their mind, but 50% of Kerry's supporters might.

This is great news for the Dean campaign!! What a great day so far!

[LuminousX]

2. Wow, a 14-point difference

I wonder what the numbers will look like after the pettiness of this flag business is factored in. Will it hurt Dean, hurt Kerry, or have no effect?

[seventhson]

3. This hurts Kerry

Kerry's bird hunting while slamming Dean on the flag etc makes him look like the hypocrite I believe he is.

Dean is rockin'

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

4. So

Dean has basically guaranteed himself 31.16% of the vote.

Kerry 12%.

Nearly a 20 point lead.

Another 5-7%, and the NH race is over. One has to believe that if he's getting over a third of the decided vote, that he can get a quarter of the undecided vote.



"Looking Gooood!"

[NewYorkerfromMass]

25. I read: Dean 38, Kerry 24

what are you looking at?

[arcos]

27. he's looking at this:

Of the 38% saying they would vote for Dean, 82% (31% of all likely Democratic primary voters) say they do not expect their support for Dean will change prior to the primary. Of the 24% saying they would vote for Kerry, 50% (12% of all likely Democratic primary voters) say they do not expect their support for Kerry will change prior to the primary.

Solid support:
Dean - 82% of 38 = 31%
Kerry - 50% of 24 = 12%

[polpilot]

28. Simple enough.

Dean '04

[CMT]

5. look at when this poll was conducted

Nov 2-5 right during all the flag controversy and demagouging of that issue by his opponents. I think they hurt themselves more than Dean.

[unfrigginreal]

20. Yep,..Deans meetup numbers soared then also.

They added 6000 members during that period.

[munayman]

6. Shoot ourselves in the foot

There is no way...absolutely no way that Dean could possibly beat Bush. Even if we raised $500 million and used every cent on advertising and paid off the rest of the voters....Dean is not Presidential material...and the rest of America knows it. We are at a fragile stage of developing foreign relations...Dean constantly offends people in his home country...imagine what damage he would do at an international level. Dean might be a great guy...and he may deserve to win the democratic nomination....but why shoot ourselves in the foot and vote for someone who has no chance of beating Bush? There is only one candidate who even remotely has a chance of beating Bush...and it's Clark. The media knows it...and if you notice, they show favortism towards Dean (because they want him to get the nomination so Bush will win - no contest). Somene please help me spread the common sense.

[helleborient]

7. Again...if the myth that Dean constantly offends people were true....

How do you explain the favorability ratings in New Hampshire?

All of the other Democratic candidates are even more offensive?

[w13rd0]

8. Give the poster a few...

...apparently its a few months behind on its talking points.

[ryharrin]

9. Because I've never seen anything that tells me

he would lose. Who are these people he's constantly offending? DUers? We have thin skin. Voters? Not according to these polls so far. Then who? How is he not presidential material? Do you actually think there are regular people out there (not freepers) who think Bush is actually more presididential than Dean? Dean can speak in full sentences, on more than one subject at a time, offering hope where Bush can only offer perpetual war.

[munayman]

10. Rough around the edges

Dean is too rough around the edges to be President. He does not carry himself in such a way as the persona of the presidency requires. He carries himself more like a used-car salesman.

[helleborient]

12. Once again....is that why New Hampshire voters give high favorability

ratings? Why those who have seen him in person, including myself, very very frequently disagree with your assessment?

One of the first-time attendees at our Meetup last night said she saw Howard Dean speak at an event two years ago and said to herself that he ever ran for President, she would vote for him. That's why she was there last night.

I wonder if she just wants rough around the edges used-car salesmen as her President (sarcasm)

[caledesi]

14. Really? Take a good look at our current pResident. Does he

carry himself well? Puhleeze...he can't even speak properly (it's pretty said when leaders from other countries speak better English than *). The "deer in the headlights" look is real presidential!

Have you actually watched any of Dean's stump speeches? Clear, powerful, ARTICULATE...

[LuminousX]

17. I honestly think people are tired of polished candidates

While they may like to have a smooth talking politician give speeches, whenever one talks to you one-on-one you feel slimed. They are too smarmy and too careful about their words that they end up saying nothing at all.

My one encounter with Dean was at Navy Pier in Chicago where after his speech in sweltering heat, he had to crawl over some chairs to get into a position where he could shake people's hands. It would have been easier for him to stay where he was and let people come to him. Instead, he took the effort to come to the people.

I am not saying no other politician would have done that, but looking at the big picture, that is what his campaign has been all about. He tells audiences that he isn't going to change anything, they are. They are the ones who have to do it. They are the ones who have to take action. He will help, he will be the executive carrying out their wishes.

Is he smooth? Nope. Does he come across as caring and effective? Yep.

[helleborient]

19. Damn...we could have met each other!!!!

Sorry, a total aside...

I was about 10 ft. from the stage when he spoke on Navy Pier. There's a high probability we saw each other...I would have been happy to say hi and chat!

[LuminousX]

22. I was just to the left of the people shouting "No More Bush It"

I have a knee-jerk reactions to 'rallies' in that I hate them. So all the pre-speech rally techniques didn't sit well with me. I understand why it is done, but I just don't get rah-rah-rah about anyone. This was my first Presidential rally so I didn't know what to expect.

I was already hot, sweatstained and not eager to listen to a lot of platitudes. All this is to say, Dean had a lot of negatives to overcome for me and he did it. Oddly enough, there were two things that got me - his comment regarding going for the Southern vote by using inclusive issues instead of typical Republican issues and telling me(us) that we are taking the flag (the U.S. flag) back from the Republicans.

[helleborient]

23. Both great things...the U.S. flag comment...

Is one I repeat over and over when I talk to people, because it moved me nearly to tears. My wife and I very nearly put up an American flag right next to the anti-war in Iraq sign in the yard, because we do feel that strongly.

Anyhow...I've now talked to multiple people who love that line and bemoan when they took the U.S. flag out of their yard, off their car, etc. because they thought Republicans had forced it to mean support of Republicans and not support of the entire country. It's very emotional to a lot of liberals - particularly of the baby boom generation.

And, yeah, it was a really really hot day - one of the very few this past summer.

[Andromeda]

29. Dean is strong,

and a brilliant campaigner. He can move the masses---sway a crowd. Dean generated more enthusiasm here in California than any other candidate.

Why?

Because spoke to the simmering anger of the voters who had their votes disqualified in 2000.

No other candidate did that.

[munayman]

11. Offending people right and left

Please...did you even watch the RockTheVote debate the other night? He called the people of Vermont "ignorant". He offended everyone who flies the confederate flag (implied they were all poor white trash). Even if that were true...do you think poor white trash likes to be called poor white trash? Then there is the whole black issue...he offended Al Sharton on stage...and there were only nine people...how many black people do you think he offended around the country? Then he said he felt unconfortable around gay people (which I find funny since he enacted the gay marriage policy - which was probably just a political move). I mean get serious...this guy just can't win with these flaws......can't.

[helleborient]

13. I am serious...and working for the campaign.

And I think he will make a great President.

Polling information and personal testimonials do not bear out that what you're saying is completely true...or that it is a liability to his campaign thus far.

[munayman]

15. we'll see

we'll see come elections

[LuminousX]

26. I just searched the debate transcript, you seem to be in error

The word "ignorant" did not show up. So Dean didn't call the people of Vermont "ignorant" Did he use some euphemism. In fact, every reference to Vermont doesn't have anything remotely like that near it. Could you please provide a direct quote?

[beyurslf]

18. munayman

Do you think Dean (or any Dem candidate) would do worse things to foreign relations than Bush? He hasn't exactly been extending the olive branch, ya know.

[killbotfactory]

16. Obviously peaking too soon.

Darn that peaking.

[LuminousX]

21. I've been hiking

and kept telling my hiking partners that we'll turn back once we top 'this peak' only to discover when we get to the top that there is even a taller peak behind it. Not wanting to miss a possible impressive view, we commit ourselves to another hour to get to the top of that peak. Grow up in the Rockies was tough, but it taught me a lesson. There is always another peak behind the one you see.

Yep, Dean peaks, yet again.

[arcos]

24. kick, for my now locked dupe thread of this! n/t