Dean's Lead Crumbles in Iowa - Des Moines Register

[DJcairo]

U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt has overtaken former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean as the Democratic presidential front-runner in a new Des Moines Register poll of Iowans likely to take part in the Jan. 19 caucuses.

However, Gephardt's 7-percentage-point lead over Dean in the Iowa Poll appears a little wobbly. More of Dean's supporters say their minds are made up and they are certain of their participation in the Democratic caucuses, which launch the presidential nominating season for the nation.

The Iowa Poll, taken last week, shows Gephardt is the first choice of 27 percent of Iowans who say they definitely or probably will attend the precinct caucuses. Dean is the favorite of 20 percent. That's a gain of 6 percentage points for Gephardt and a 3-point drop for Dean since late July, when the last Iowa Poll on the race was taken.

U.S. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts remains in third place with 15 percent, a gain of 1 percentage point from July. The poll has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

http://desmoinesregister.com/news/stories/c4789004/22685215.html

[La_Serpiente]

1. I thought you would've come around

:hi: :-)

[La_Serpiente]

2. delete

[tsipple]

3. Interesting!

Iowa is going to be a dogfight.

[Name removed]

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[dsc]

9. Not at all

Polls fluctuate but it is hard to see dishonestly and purposeful dishonesty. Sadly I can't call your post what it actually is since that is against the rules but we both know what it is.

[DJcairo]

10. Look...

One of your comrades has a post about Kerry allowing genocide in Vietnam. That's a pretty dishonest question/accusation. Certainly more serious than "Dean's Lead Crumbles..."

[Name removed]

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[9119495]

60. You're right DJ but

if you look at some of the most anti-Dean posts you'll find a bunch of deleted message tabs. Some of these are likely for thin-skinned types with knee-jerk responses. But some are a mystery. I've had posts with no personal attacks at all get deleted. The only thing in the end I could say was some non-argument about a candidate...like Kerry engaged in genocide or "he lies." That is allowed, but telling someone Kerry "changed his mind about the war" got deleted. I don't think Kerry committed genocide and I hope no one else does either, but the areguments here are frustrating people.

[Name removed]

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[Cha]

24. Pointing out the inaccuracies in a title

is helpful to all who read this thread and I thank, dsc, for doing just that!

[polpilot]

26. Dean supporters need to understand the flames of the disappointed

supporters of other candidates. This will increase as their candidates disappear. We ARE OBLIGATED to call the hand of misrepresenters of Howard's positions.

Dean '04...

[Name removed]

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[Feanorcurufinwe]

34. Do you mean this?

You, know I think after all it really is more effective when you can see Carol laughing at Dean behind his back.

What a picture of childish, petty rage.

On the other hand, Dean may have picked up some votes from the people he was trying to court with his Confederate flag comments in the first place -
folks who wish they could get in Rev. Al's face and poke their finger in his chest.

Yep, here's Dean at his most Presidential, initiating a national dialogue on race.

[MercutioATC]

41. Do you have a REAL explanation of what is going on in this picture?

...or are you just using a single frame to try to tell a story? Seems to me there was another picture from the same event, probably taken within minutes of this one that showed Sharpton and Dean clasping hands and raising them over their heads.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

51. Here's how Dean explains it:

"When people get in my face, I tend to get in theirs," Dr. Dean said in the interview at The Times. "Al Sharpton was in my face last night and I was not going to step one step, half a step, backwards, and I don't care who's in my face.

"I tend to be reflective rather later than sooner," he added. "Now, unfortunately, we all know that nobody's personality is perfect. So the things that make me a strong candidate are also my Achille's heel."
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/06/politics/campaigns/06DEAN.html?hp

But gee, maybe Dean doesn't really have a temper tantrum problem.

[Name removed]

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[Feanorcurufinwe]

59. Dean said this in response to questions about the debate.

How you interpret his comments is up to you, there they are.

[MercutioATC]

63. Since my last reply was deleted, I'll try it again...

You're posting this picture knowing full well that there is another picture from the same event showing Sharpton and Dean smiling while holding clasped hands above their heads. That's unmitigated spin in my book. Further misrepresenting the issue by posting that Dean's explanation was that Sharpton got in his face so he got back in Sharpton's is another misrepresentation. Dean said that about the arguement he and Sharpton had DURING the event, not afterwards when this picture was taken.

...and that's a bulls**t thing to do.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

66. Here's the picture and the quote.

"When people get in my face, I tend to get in theirs," Dr. Dean said in the interview at The Times. "Al Sharpton was in my face last night and I was not going to step one step, half a step, backwards, and I don't care who's in my face.

"I tend to be reflective rather later than sooner," he added. "Now, unfortunately, we all know that nobody's personality is perfect. So the things that make me a strong candidate are also my Achille's heel."
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/06/politics/campaigns/06DEAN.html?hp

You are welcome to provide your own spin as to what is happening here.

Maybe when Dean said

"Al Sharpton was in my face last night and I was not going to step one step, half a step, backwards, and I don't care who's in my face."

maybe what he really meant was

"Al Sharpton sure knows how to tell a good joke and we shared a few after the debate.



Maybe Dean's face is all red because he is tickled pink by Al's latest knock-knock joke.


Maybe Carol isn't laughing at Dean; maybe she's laughing with him.



Or maybe it's just what it looks like.

[emulatorloo]

45. This is just a "bad picture" re time the shutter went off

I saw the video from the same moments at the end of Rock The Vote. . .Sharpton and Dean were more or less embracing and smiling and talking w one another. . .check out your family photo albums, you'll find plenty of photos like this where the camera catches faces as they transition from one expression to another and the person looks goofy.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

50. Yeah, why believe the evidence of your eyes?

:eyes:

[MercutioATC]

65. "The evidence of my eyes"????

1) I saw the OTHER picture, where they were smiling and holding hands.

2) CMB is smiling. I don't believe she's a big drug user, so the lack of concern on her face doesn't seem to indicate a confrontation happening two feet away.

3) No candidate or news agency reported on an exchange between Dean and Sharpton after the debate. Do you think they's pass on that if it did, in fact, happen?

I'll stick to "the evidence of my brain", thank you.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

67. No, you're right. Maybe this didn't happen.

"Al Sharpton was in my face last night and I was not going to step one step, half a step, backwards, and I don't care who's in my face."

[MercutioATC]

69. Again, the quote does NOT go with the picture.

The quote references the arguement during the forum between Dean and Sharpton.

Where did you get the information that this pic has anything to do with the quite anbd how would you answer the points I made in my post above?

Your claim makes NO sense and has not been supported by anybody else.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

71. Dean was interviewed about the forum. This is what he said.

"When people get in my face, I tend to get in theirs," Dr. Dean said in the interview at The Times. "Al Sharpton was in my face last night and I was not going to step one step, half a step, backwards, and I don't care who's in my face.

"I tend to be reflective rather later than sooner," he added. "Now, unfortunately, we all know that nobody's personality is perfect. So the things that make me a strong candidate are also my Achille's heel."
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/06/politics/campaigns/06DEAN.html?hp

Here we have Dean talking about getting in Sharpton's face at the forum.
And here we have a picture of Dean getting in Sharpton's face at the forum
while Carol Mosely Braun laughs at Dean behind his back:


You say the two things are unrelated. You are welcome to your interpretation. I think your interpretation is wrong, but you are entitled to your opinion.

[shoopnyc123]

75. Mars in Sagittarius

Dean has Mars in Sag like: Cheney and Powell. This is a volatile placement, and, likes to fight.

http://www.daykeeperjournal.com/aarch03/0307jul/feature2-kucdean.shtml

[a_lil_wall_fly]

6. This is not good at all...for Dean at least

On the Poll: "The poll contains ample evidence that the race in Iowa remains fluid."

On Dean: "His intention was good, but he made a pretty stupid remark," said poll participant Debra Sanborn, a firm Dean supporter who lives near Luther in Boone County. "I certainly don't think he supports the tenets of what the rebel flag stands for."


Gephardt is the top second choice among likely caucus participants, favored by 16 percent. But his chief rivals in Iowa are right on his heels. Kerry is the second choice of 15 percent, and Dean is the second choice of 14 percent.

Sums it up

[slinkerwink]

11. that poll was taken during the flag comment and before the apology

and before the announced double endorsements of the SEIU and the AFSCME....so, that poll is basically moot anyway. I expect to see Dean back on the lead on Wednesday when the SEIU and the AFSCME announce their endorsements of Dean and shortly after in the following weeks, the members of both unions will help voters decide to support Dean instead of Gephardt.

[Cha]

22. "The Flag comment" has been going on since

his speech in April as we know.. just now the gepkerwards confer on how to bite into Dean's lead and viola! But it's all good ..Dean will come back stronger because in the end it was all about reaching out to voters who have not voted Democratic in a long time.

I can't wait until the Double anncouncement next week! It will be quite a birthday present for Dean! Close enough!

[Feanorcurufinwe]

62. Your sense of revisionist history is remarkable.

Now the Confederate flag controversy actually started in April or March or February, or at some other time when no one was paying attention to Dean's ignorant, insensitive remark.

lol

[dd123]

23. Yup, I think AFSCME is going to be huge for Dean in Iowa.

The new argument for Dean over the rest of the field is that he is the only candidate that could possibly raise enough money to compete with Bush. Anyone who takes matching contributions will have basically surrendered.

Seeing as how many contributors are sitting on the side waiting for a nominee, the key then is to be able to raise enough money on their own for the Dem nomination.

Where Dean's got another edge is that the unions supporting him are the most active and gung-ho and their members will probably give him more direct contributions than what Gephardt will get from his Union endorsements.

[arcos]

53. oh, but remember, he has peaked!

and he's not able to fundraise!

he's too conserv... err, too liber... uhmm... conservative!

[Larkspur]

12. This lead will change in a few weeks back to Dean after this Wednesday's

big labor endorsement for Dean.

Gephardt doesn't have the funds to compete with Dean, and with the full backing of 2 big labor unions, one of which is prominent in Iowa, I see Dean surging past Gephardt in a few weeks. It will take a few weeks for this announcment to ripple thought the polling audience. Right now Iowa will be a dogfight, but Dean is getting needed re-enforcements at the time when Gephardt is cutting his staff's salaries.

[Padraig18]

14. Also from the article:

"...It's unclear whether the controversy has done any damage to Dean's candidacy in Iowa. While the poll shows he no longer is the front-runner in the state, his popularity remains high. Among likely caucus participants who have formed an opinion about Dean, 73 percent rate their feelings toward him as mostly or very favorable.

"His intention was good, but he made a pretty stupid remark," said poll participant Debra Sanborn, a firm Dean supporter who lives near Luther in Boone County. "I certainly don't think he supports the tenets of what the rebel flag stands for."

...

Dean can take comfort from the poll finding that his support is more firm than Gephardt's or Kerry's.

Twenty-eight percent of those who pick Dean say their minds are made up, compared with 20 percent of Gephardt's supporters and 22 percent of Kerry's supporters who say their choice is final.

In addition, 49 percent of Dean's supporters say they definitely will go to the caucuses, compared with 27 percent of Gephardt's supporters and 37 percent of Kerry's supporters. The rest of those polled say they probably will attend the Jan. 19 caucuses.

Sanborn, the poll participant from Boone County, said she finds Dean appealing because he's a Washington outsider who brings a fresh perspective to issues.

"I like his plans to help people gain affordable health care," said Sanborn, 39, who works in the office of the dean of students at Iowa State University...

Dean has a significant lead among likely caucus participants with incomes topping $70,000 and those with college degrees, winning the support of 27 percent in each group. He also leads among those who are ages 18 to 44...."

Hardly a 'verklempt' moment for those of us who support Dean. :)

[tsipple]

16. Dean Supporters Are Almost Twice As Likely to Caucus?

Hmmm... Now that's interesting!

"Oh, yeah, I like Dick Gephardt, but I've got laundry to do tonight."

[Padraig18]

17. Yep.

:thumbsup:

[Cha]

21. LOL! OTH...I'd rather "caucus" for Dean

than anything on Earth!

[AP]

48. Kinda remings me of that 700 Club guy's campaign.

[virtualobserver]

18. DJCairo, I hope that this poll makes you feel a little better......

Kerry, with a 3rd in IOWA, and a Second in NH, will still be in good shape for the primaries beyond. Edwards and Lieberman will be toast.


edit:his to this in title

[tsipple]

25. With all due respect...

No. Kerry must win New Hampshire. If he can't win in his backyard -- that shares his media market -- he's done. It's why he's gone so negative and vicious against Dean.

[virtualobserver]

31. the reason why I don't write off Kerry......

is his deep pockets.

I don't actually believe that he can win. But I do believe that he can survive beyond NH.

[paulk]

35. I don't think losing N.H. will kill Kerry's campaign

Dean's from right next door, too. He does have to get it down to single digits, however.

[Padraig18]

36. I don't think it will 'kill' Kerry's campaign.

I do think it will put it only the 'critical andnot expected to survive' list, however.

[LuminousX]

19. ROFL: "Gephardt inches ahead in Iowa"

Somehow this translates into "Dean Crumbles" I think Dean would have had to be in the lead for his lead to crumble and crumbling implies destruction where all we have is poll fluctuation.

Nice attempt at propaganda.

[Cha]

20. Actually I think the "attempt at propogada"

Sucks Big Time and I'm glad you called the offender on it.

[DJcairo]

37. According to Zogby, Dean was 6 points ahead early last month.=

[Padraig18]

38. We'll see what Zogby says this month, and compare...

...apples to apples, not apples to oranges.

[MercutioATC]

42. And Zogby has exactly WHAT to do wih this poll?

You can't cross-reference polls conducted by different organizations like thit (trends, possibly, in some cases but not month-to-month results).

[dsc]

43. That would be the same Zogby you called delusional?

I don't think you every thought that lead existed so it is hard for you to justify what you are saying now with that.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

29. Amazing the mean-spirited responses

to a simple posting of a poll.

:shrug:

[dsc]

30. Yes shame on me

for standing up for honest headlines. I am so mean that way.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

33. Your response was not mean spirited

and I don't think there is anything wrong with offering your opinion on the accuracy of another members posting. What I was commenting on was this comment: "So please edit your, to be charitable, misleading headline" which is not mean-spirited, just overly presumptuous.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

39. Patience, patience...

Wednesday's announcement is likely to catapult Dean back into the lead in Iowa.

Gep has been fighting hard there, and he still may win it, but Wednesday is going to be a huge blow to his campaign.

Patience...

[Padraig18]

40. Gephart won it in '88

He's a next-door 'neighbor', in a very Midwestern political sense, and I've always thought he would do well in IA; in fact, he's one of the 3 I think most likely to be 'left standing' after the initial 'slaughter' of the January/February primaries and caucuses, trhe other 2 being Dean and Clark.

[virtualobserver]

44. wasn't trippi gephardt's IOWA guy in '88

maybe that is why he won.

[sandnsea]

46. War vote sure isn't hurting Gep

Interesting.

[LuminousX]

47. He never shifted his position on it

or appeared to shift his position.

[sandnsea]

49. Bush is a miserable failure?

Gephardt has criticized Bush on this war for months now. He voted for it, then he criticized Bush for doing it. Same as Kerry, if you want to spin it that way. The war vote is a made-up reason to attack Kerry. It's not real and has absolutely no substance.

[a_lil_wall_fly]

52. Well...

See Gephardt has not truly changed any tone about his vote on the war. He was for war then and he is for the war now.
What is getting the lead for Gephardt is that the "among those with a high school education or less, at 35 percent, and Catholic support from within that group has increased from 19 percent in July to 34 percent," this is way Gephardt has pulled ahead.
If Dean did not have a this part of the pie "caucus participants with incomes topping $70,000 and those with college degrees, winning the support of 27 percent in each group. He also leads among those who are ages 18 to 44"--Gephardt would be doing to Dean, what Dean is doing to Kerry in NH.

[CMT]

54. as usual you leave out the best part

that Dean supporters are more committed to turning out at caucus than either Kerry or Gephardt supporters--in fact, Gep is running behind Kerry regarding committment. In a caucus state and especially in the winter turnout will be the key. I'm also impressed that Dean has a 73% approval rating in Iowa (which is higher than he has even in New Hampshire). There is plenty of time and room for him to close the gap in this up and down battle in Iowa with Gephardt.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

55. If Kerry comes out ahead of Gep it will be a real upset.

[KittyWampus]

56. Heavens There's Alot Of Deleted Messages On This Thread

Sounds like Gep's been working hard.

[paulk]

57. deleted by poster

wrong thread

:dunce:

[NewYorkerfromMass]

61. Poor Howard Dean

he's spent so much time in Iowa too.

[Demobrat]

64. You call that crumbling?

What's a boloney sandwich in your world, a five course meal?

[Nicholas_J]

68. Well

If you had 23 points and lose three to go to 20 percent, that is a thirteen percent loss of support for Dean in Iowa, where going from 21 to 27 points is a 22 percent gain in suport for Gephardt, and Kerry goinf from 14 to 15 percent is a 6.6 percent increase in support for Kerry in Iowa.

So yes, this IS a fairly substantial loss for Dean in Iowa, when you see that momentum for these two other candidates where Dean was fron runner is a total momentum of 28.6 percent AWAY from Dean to other candidates.

You dont win a nomination by losing points.

And Deans loss was the result of the Confederate Flag Flap.

In October, Dean lost 23 percent pf his polling status within days of Gephardt attacking Dean on the Newt Gingrich comparison, along with Kerry brining up all of the cuts Dean made to health care programs for the elderly in 2002, and now he has lost about 13 percent of his polling momentum a few days after the latest Stars and bars flap.

All that the other candidates are doing is probing for areas that cause Dean to lose momentum. He gained ground again in October, after Medicare/Gingrich comments, gained ground, and now loses some again after the Confederate Flag attacks.

These were relatively simply and relatively simply and benign attacks on Dean. but it is becoming obvious of where at least two of Deans weaknesses are, and there are many other, more serious attacks that bothe Gephardt and Kerry could make about Dean based on other quotes rom the past, other actions he has taken, other programs he has cut. Lots of them, far more serious, far more critical, and likely to cause the same people who dropped off from supporting Dean to do so for longer periods of time.

Kerry and Gephardt are collecting info as to what brings Dean own in the polls in order to mount a continual, overwhelming criticism of Dean on issues that have cost him support so far. But they will wait until Dean cannot benefit from a rebound.

[MercutioATC]

70. Why is it that "momentum" only works for other candidates in your world?

I remember when you said Kerry had "momentum". You were strangely quiet when Dean gained poll numbers. Now, Kerry and Gephardt have "momentum". You're quick to suggest that Dean's drops are due to inherent flaws that will be catastrophic for him. Why did Kerry's numbers drop over the past 2-3 months?

To be fair, though, I guess you're technically correct touting Kerry's momentum. Even a downward slide is movement and, as such, "momentum".

[helleborient]

72. Kerry's drop to 7 % nationally in the latest Newsweek poll...

Is headed to the cellar by your definition.

I suppose you're saying goodbye to John Kerry's campaign.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

73. I'd pay attention only to where the candidates are "on the ground"

and people are getting a fuller perspective of all the candidates.

[helleborient]

74. I was responding to the reasoning above...

And the notion of what "movement" in polling means.