A Dean victory could cost Democrats seats

[Feanorcurufinwe]

Former Gov. Howard Dean often says that his campaign will bring new voters to the polls who will elect him president and send a Democratic majority to Congress. If history is any guide, however, his candidacy could just as easily cost his party seats in non-presidential races.

Even if Dean were to win the White House, the Democrats could lose seats, as they did when Bill Clinton won in 1992 and as the GOP did when George Bush won in 2000.

<snip>

Dean has repeatedly said the party needs to win back Southern working-class voters who have been supporting Republicans in recent years. However, his clumsy reference to appealing to people who drive pickup trucks with Confederate flags — a statement for which he apologized — showed some that he misunderstands the region.

“If that is what he believes about Southern independents, then he is wrong. If Democrats spend time and money here, they can make inroads with the proper message,” said former South Carolina Democratic Chairman Dick Harpootlian, who now practices law in Columbia, S.C.

“The South is not that different from the rest of the country. Just this morning I was drinking a cappuccino and reading The New York Times in Starbucks,” he added.

<snip>

Dean knows that he could hurt other Democrats in the South. At a recent news conference, he said he had told local politicians in Alabama that he would either campaign there or stay away, whichever would help more.
http://rutlandherald.nybor.com/News/Story/74399.html

[Gephard]

1. He won't show in the south

A metrosexual with pseudo-confederate tendencies? Give me a break.

[Meshuga]

17. What is a metrosexual? Excuse my ignorance! :-) n/t

[NewYorkerfromMass]

25. apparently something that many wish Dean had never said

given the avoidance of an answer to your question.
Coattails (or lack thereof) is a serious concern.

[Padraig18]

26. Pffft!

It got a huge laugh from everyone who heard it, including the columnist for the Boulder newspaper. Dean does have a sense of humor, you know? :eyes:

[Ediacara]

43. a metrosexual...

is aparently something pulled out of the asses of trend-setters. It's a straight man that acts gay, ie goes to the gym, likes wine, dresses nicely, has a tan etc.

[a_lil_wall_fly]

2. Well 4 or possilbe 5 Democrat Senators in the South has something to .....

with that. Dr Dean has to see that more and more incumbent Democratics are not running...Therefore the GOP doesn't have as hard of a time in 5 races!!!!!!! So if he and the other candidates, they should be asking why to thier party of the lack of desire from incumbents to stay in office!!!!!!

[ThorsteinVeblen]

3. The seats are already gone.

Gone, gone, gone. Under the watch of the current leadership.

And they will continue to disappear unless the Democratic Party completey re-evaluates its identity.

Gone.

[wtmusic]

4. Reality Check -- Thank You

It hurts so when they blame it on Dean!

:nopity::nopity::nopity::nopity::nopity:
:nopity::nopity::nopity::nopity::nopity:

[Lady President]

5. Backlash could happen

I'm not as worried about the flag debacle as I am about Dean's anti-establishment stance. If Dems. start to believe that the current members of Congress are all Bush-lite cockroaches, then some of our seats could be in jeopardy. I would hate to see any of our incumbents lose because of these comments.

[Pez]

6. it's the martyr instinct

i thought we were pretty crispy starting in 2000... how far does this have to go before everyone can feel good about themselves?

[RuB]

11. This country is split 20/20

who vote that is. If Democrats could somehow get the people out to to vote we wouldn't have to worry about the stinking south votes. As a group their following an idiot. Let them go down with the likes of the Bush's.

[nocreativename]

39. The New People

Dean is bringing in new people everyday, people who have given up on the system, or never ever part of it.

I bet most of these new people will also vote D,

[RuB]

7. "The South is not that different from the rest of the country. " !? PLEASE

From what I've read, the south is about as backward a place there ever was! Maybe the women can be won over to the Democratic side but the men are Republican and therefore brain damaged beyond repair.

[cyclezealot]

8. If Haley Barbour can win.

Barbour with his connection to the United Klan can win.? Well,it is hopeless. That man is disgusting..And the new Republican senator from Georgia. That is as neanderthall as they can get. Something is wrong with people - who this type of personality can win the day.
A disconnect with reality.
I don't think the south of Thaddeus Bilbao has changed all that much. Just learned to refine its message. If the South had won the civil war, Dubya would be their president,not ours.
I have always been intrigued by the goings on of the late mayor of Detroit- Coleman Young..He was trained in the south-Alabama during WWII... Trained as a paratrooper. After that experience, he left the state in a helicpoter, door open dropping a yellow liquid below. Interesting outspoken man. But then it was during Jim Crow.
As the song goes, "God Damn, Mississippi."
Like to think I am wrong. Used to live on the west coast of Florida..famous case of young brothers getting aids through medical transfussions..Moved to south interior of state. Arcadia to be exact. Medical transfussion.. The families, house got fire bombed.
I recall that all too well. I know it could happen anywhere.

[lastliberalintexas]

18. So nice to see

an analysis on the South from such an informed source. From what you've READ? How about talking to people who actually live here, or visiting and actually meeting Southerners? But then that might destroy your pre-conceived notion of what the South and Southerners are like, wouldn't it? So you know, my husband, my father, both my grandfathers and my uncle are SOLID Dems. My brother votes for some Dems as well. Most of my male friends are Dems too. And every African American male I know, friend, acquaintance or business contact, is a Dem. (but you seem to have forgotten that we have quite a few minorities down here in your sweeping generalization of Southern men). But you're right- Southern men are just soooo far beyond our reach. :eyes:

Darn it people! The South really isn't solidly repub! The VOTING South is. Let me repeat- the VOTING South is repub. We have extremely low voter turnout rates in the South, and if we could do something about that, Dems would actually start winning elections again.

For example, Texas is going to be a majority minority state by the next census (if we aren't already). Given that minorities tend to vote in overwhelming numbers for Dems, Texas could actually be in the D column again, maybe even within the next decade. The trick is getting people to vote. In Texas, only about 32% of registered voters even went to the polls in 2002. 32%!!

Until we Dems show up at every single election like the right wingers do, we will continue to lose elections. TURNOUT, TURNOUT, TURNOUT. And bashing any particular region with uninformed statements like this one won't win people over either.

[MercutioATC]

9. Wouldn't this apply to ANY of the Dem candidates?

Gee, we're not showing our anti-Dean bias here, are we?

[Feanorcurufinwe]

10. Dean's had to apologize for his insensitive remarks about the South.

Have any of the other candidates had to do that? That's what sets Dean apart. In his attempt to defend his pro-NRA views, he invoked the Confederate flag and managed to alienate all sorts of voters along with basically anyone who doesn't believe in stereotyping people. He was right to apologize, but instead of having the guts to honestly apologize, he pretends this was all about an attempt to initiate a national dialogue on race, which we now know tranlates from DeanSpeak as "HoHo in Yo Face".

[MercutioATC]

12. Funny, with all of the voters he's "alienated", I'd expect lower poll #s..

Hmm...seems he didn't alienate the SEIU or their 2.5 million members, either. Could it be that only supporters of OTHER candidates were offended?

[Feanorcurufinwe]

32. Well the only poll I've seen since then does show Dean's #s declining

http://desmoinesregister.com/news/stories/c4789004/22685215.html

[Padraig18]

34. You mean the 'decline' within the MOE decline?

*That* decline? :eyes:

[DemDogs]

16. Gephardt or Edwards would help Dems everywhere

Don't know about all the candidates. Clark is still a mystery candidate with no platform and a stumbling performance so I don't know how he will play in the end. But Gephardt and Edwards can help candidates win in the south, the midwest and the southwest.

[Name removed]

13. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[jonoboy]

14. solidarity, solidarity

it's the only way to go

[Padraig18]

15. A *Democratic* victory could cost Democrats seats.

That's actually the point of the article, isn't it? If Sen. Kerry were the nominee, that could also cost the Democrats seats. :eyes:

[lastliberalintexas]

19. Funny that these Southern threads

are always focused at Dean. I wish I had the link to that poll showing that he's polling better than any other candidate down here, but then I'd hate to confuse you with facts. Wouldn't want to interfere with your Dean bash of the day.


BTW- Any of our candidates is going to lose the South if we don't do something to get people to the polls. We have got to increase turnout in the South before we will start winning again. Something like 55-60% of registered voters stay home down here- and that doesn't touch on the people who aren't even registered. Until we court and win the non-voters, we are toast.

[blm]

20. So Dean wasn't trying to break barriers no matter what?

You mean that was just an excuse? If he knows his remarks don't play well, yet he insisted he is trying to start discussions about race relations, why promise he won't campaign down there to worried local pols? Why would it stop his deep CONCERN about race relations??????

That's SOME set of principles ya got there, Howie.

[lastliberalintexas]

21. Clinton

didn't campaign in many Southern states either- he cost us more votes than he won us. Did you have a problem with him refraining from campaigning in the South? Or is your ire only directed at Dean, yet again?

The *principle* is to do whatever is best for the party rather than the self or individual campaign. I would expect the same from Kerry, since his gun control stance would be a MAJOR problem for us Dems down here. Both of them are good men and good candidates, but might not be the best campaigners in certain areas down here.

[blm]

37. I'm in SC, a military state. Kerry had courted vets down here

and set up a whole network.

BushInc. knows that and will do their utmost to make sure a military man does NOT get the nomination.

[redqueen]

22. When a centrist, any centrist, is at the top of the ticket.

It decreases the base's turnout, which hurts down ballot candidates with the base.

[Padraig18]

23. You can back that up with statistical proof?

A reputable voter study, perhaps?

[redqueen]

27. Dag, I thought I'd replied to this already.

The issue has so many other factors which would influence it -- any major battles on federal / state level, for one -- that I would think a statistical study would be difficult to impossible.

But it's only logical that if the top of the ticket is a 'turnoff' to the base, that that would cause the base to stay home in large numbers a la 2002. Which would, of course, be disastrous for downballot candidates in a presidential election year.

[Padraig18]

28. The point is...

... it's speculation, even if one agrees about who 'the base' are. :shrug:

[redqueen]

29. Sure it is.

Just like all the assertions that Kucinich is 'unelectable'. :)


On edit: forgot to mention FDR's tremendous coattails. I wonder how long JFK's were. We all remember how long Clinton's were.

[Name removed]

24. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[redqueen]

30. I have NEVER said he was too liberal.

That would by a misinformed statement, to put it mildly.

[killbotfactory]

31. The south will really go for Kerry...

They just love ivory tower ultra-liberals who vote with ted Kennedy, want to raise taxes, support gay rights, and kiss the butt of gun control lobbyists.

He'll just ride a harley and they'll swoon.

[Padraig18]

35. LOL!

Waiter, the Kerry party is ready for their reality check! :P

[blm]

40. And you DO not. That's why you support a faux populist

who will return to his GOP buttkissing ways as soon as he can shake the "looney left". DEREGULATION, here we go.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

45. You just described Dean

Especially the "raise taxes" part.

[blm]

49. The Marine general who commanded Parris Island is pushing Kerry here

in SC. You have no idea the veterans networks in the southern military states. They will work for Kerry or Clark before they work for Bush.

They no like Bush no more.

[UnapologeticLiberal]

33. Small price to pay

Since we are not getting the House back until at least 2012, losing a few more seats is a small price to pay if we can win the White House.

[a_lil_wall_fly]

36. Yeah

Lets vote for a lame duck president... how much would the Republican push thru their agenda tacked on the Democratic Lame Duck president "promises".

We should be focusing on both get THE TALKING PLANT out of office and getting one of the two houses back.

If we don't get either house back...guess what WE ALL LOSE!!!!!!!!

Why we all LOSE!!!!

How many Democrats would help the Republicans overturn a veto!!! To stay in power??? To show thier true colors!!!!

As the Rev. Sharpton has stated a couple of times(paraphased):"Let's get those Elephants in Donkeys suits out of office!!!!!!!"

If not WE ALL LOSE!!!!!

[no name no slogan]

46. Why so pessimistic? Why CAN'T we elect more Dems to congress?

It seems that for some reason I hear a lot of pessimism from the Dean camp regarding the general election. Maybe it's because of all the negative energy that's around the campaign, I don't know (just MHO).

I NEVER hear any talk of Dean's coattails and how he could energize Democrats and get more of them elected to the House and Senate if he wins the general election. It's like they believe that he's the "only hope" of a Democratic hedge to the Republicans.

Well, guess what? He's not going to get ANY of his programs passed without the support of the Dems on Capitol Hill.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

47. I agree with you. If we present a clear, liberal choice to Bush

our candidate WILL have coattails because our base will be energized to come out and vote. Sure we have to appeal to the middle but not by abandoning the left. A choice between a conservative Republican and a slightly-less-conservative Democrat is a losing choice for us.

As far as Dean getting his agenda passed - it was the Democrats in the Vermont legislature who were Dean's biggest foes - not the Republicans.

(When Dean became governor) they (liberal Democrats) were all thinking, oh we got a Democrat back in the governor's office. And all of the sudden they find Howard Dean's worse on spending (than Snelling). The state was headed into a recession at the time. And Snelling before he died, he and Ralph Wright cut a deal on raising the income taxes and (inaud.) the deficit--a few years of austerity. Howard stuck with the plan. And as Dick McCormack (Democratic Senator from Windsor) will tell you of the meeting where he (Dean) met with the Democratic Caucus and told them then, and this might have been before, when he was still lieutenant governor, and told the Democratic Senators, you're never going to win because people don't trust you with their money. None of your great and lofty goals and plans and aspirations will ever be achieved because people don't trust Democrats with their money. We got to prove it to 'em. And that was key. I mean his political enemies for the first three terms were Democrats at the State House, not Republicans. Republicans loved his budgets.
http://www.gwu.edu/~action/2004/dean/dean0702/freyneint.html

[dsc]

38. We will lose House seats no matter who we run

that was the whole point of redistricting. We also lose some Senate seats in the South no matter who we run thanks to the several retirements (none of which have thing one to do with Dean). On the other hand he many well help turnout in places like PA (Specter), IL (Fitzgerald), AL (Murkowski), and WA (Murray). Those area all states we need.

[a_lil_wall_fly]

41. Yes..but you should all start focusing at the state level....

For all you fanatics of the "major" candidates..you should now vest time at your state and local races.
Cuz...if Bush goes down over the summer...the RNC/GOP would most likely divert funds from THE TALKING HOUSE PLANT to the those tight races at the state level. IF GOP has 150+mill$ to throw around how much could they send to the state campaigns...hmm.

WE SHOULD BE FOCUSED ON THE STATES AS WELL.

[dsc]

42. I have been in contact with

and will work for both Eric Fingerhut's campaign against Voinovich and Ed Jerse's campaign against LaTourette. Both are very extreme longshots though.

[a_lil_wall_fly]

44. DSC-Great...

Well the only thing to do is too help these two candidates win their elections. I hope they do. :D

[mzmolly]

48. They could lose seats with Kerry in the OO as well?

:freak: