After Dean, Who's Most Likely to Opt-Out (Matching Funds)?

[tsipple]

Howard Dean is the first Democratic presidential candidate in history to opt-out of the federal matching funds system. He argues -- and his supporters agree -- that it is essential that any Democrat running against George W. Bush have the ability to respond to the corporate donor-financed attacks during the critical March through July period, when the Democratic nominee will (probably) be known but before the national convention. George W. Bush will have over $100 million to spend until his party's September convention.

Frankly this decision forces a tough choice on the other candidates seeking the Democratic nomination:

1. Opt-in. If you do, you get a nice government check for your campaign in January to help in the primaries, but you're likely to get buried by Bush attacks in the spring.

2. Opt-out. If you do, you have fewer resources to wage a primary fight, but you're in better shape against Bush if you become the nominee.

Candidates must decide by December 1st, and the decision is irrevocable. Accepting government funds restricts the candidate to overall spending through July, 2004, of $45 million (including matching funds) and state-by-state spending limits.

Some basic financial facts here:

Dean: $25 million raised thru Q3, estimated $10+ million already in Q4, low "burn rate," low average contribution ($77), opting out.
Clark: $3.5 million raised thru Q3, predicts another $6 million in Q4, unknown "burn rate" (but likely spending to build), moderate average contribution, January federal check probably about $5 or 6 milion.
Kerry: $20 million raised thru Q3, probably another $3 million in Q4, high "burn rate," high percentage of maxed out $2K contributors, January federal check probably about $10 million.

Similar data are available for Gephardt, Edwards, and other candidates.

Question: Who is the most likely -- and at least greater than 50% odds -- to opt-out of the federal matching funds system?

Read that question again before voting! I had to word the question that way because DU doesn't allow multiple choice voting.

[Egnever]

1. Dont know

Its a tough choice for any of them. Kerry is probably the best shape cash wise to do it of all of them at this point. However with the lackluster support he has right now I dont know that he can actually write off the 10 million in january. Long term if he does become the candidate to go against bush its the right decision but in the short term he has to win the primaries first. I dont know if he can affour to let those funds go and still remain competetive between now and march. Verry tough decision for him I think.

Same for clark sort of. Difference is clark doesnt have the cash on hand at all right now to really be competetive yet. He has the potential to go head to head with Dean in the long run but at this point hes not there yet. If he had gotten in sooner he would be opting out allready I think. It might be better for him to take the cash and have working capital. Because he hasnt been in so long he hasnt spent as much either so he could probably stretch the matching funds a month or two further than the others.

The fact that the deadline is upcoming is forcing a decision on these guys I dont think they are ready to make yet.

It will be fascinating to see witch way those two in particular fall.

Edwards I think has no choice and has to accept he just hasnt shown the support necessary to compete yet he needs that cash.

I will be keeping my eye on Kerry and Clark they will be the ones to make the move if anyone does.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

2. Tomorrow

Dean is going to get the join SEIU-AFSCME endorsements, and there will be lots of press about how this gives Dean a huge advantage.

Perhaps Kerry will announce his intention to opt out just after this, both to get some press focus back on him and to establish that he's still in the race.