If I had to pick today, gun to my head, 2004 prediction

[SaveElmer]

Assuming Dean wins nomination (which is far from sure)

Bush

ID,MT,UT,CO,WY,NV,OK,TX,AK,ND,SD,KS,NE,AZ,MO,AR,LA,AL,MS,GA,FL,IN,OH, KY,TN,VA,NC,SC,NH = 273

Dean

WA,OR,CA,HI,NM,MN,IA,WI,IL,MI,WV,ME,MA,RI,VT,CT,NY,NJ,PA,DE,MD,DC = 265

Means Democrats have to pick up one additional state

In my opinion, best bets are : NH,FL,AZ,MT,AR,CO in that order !

[ErasureAcer]

1. I think Minnesota will go the republicans and the dems will pick up

Nevada and Arizona.

[SaveElmer]

2. You may be right on MN

It will be close...

[indigo32]

13. No hell No

we won't go!!!! I'll fight like crazy to keep MN Dem. In truthfullness I don't know if I'd be so sure they'll turn this time round. I guess I haven't seen any polling data... but in my everyday life I think Bush is not that popular. We'll see I guess.

[no name no slogan]

20. No way in hell Dubya will win MN in 2004

People saying that MN will go Repub either 1) do not know their history, or 2) have no experience with politics in this state.

The last time MN went for a Repub was Nixon in 1972. Before 1972, MN has been consistently in the Dem column, as far back as Teddy Roosevelt IIRC.

The Gore vote in MN was well over Shrub's vote in 2000. In fact, many disaffected Dems voted Green in 2000 (myself included) so that they could get 5% of the vote and major-party status in MN (and qualify for matching funds).

I'm with you indigo-- Even though the Repubs have made gains over the last few election cycles, it's still pretty unlikely they'll win here, especially with a president who's as unpopular as Shrub.

[Egnever]

3. I dont think NV will go to bush

He pissed em off on Yucca mnt. It will be tough fight but I think it will go dem. Oh and Harry Reid explaining how Searchlight got its name put the final nail in Bushes coffin!

[Punkingal]

4. How did Searchlight get its name?

Enquiring minds want to know.

[Egnever]

9. Buy his facinating book and see!

How Searchlight got its name

[Dems Will Win]

5. That's what I was going to say -- NV will go to Dean after he goes there

and bangs Bush on that one!

[Dems Will Win]

6. Also OH

is really likely because of job losses. Also AR when Clark goes on the ticket.

Check out this fun map to play with from Edwards site. Also NC if Edwards is on the ticket...

http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map/

[Josh]

8. Edwards doesn't get us NC as VP -

and he doesn't necessarily get it for at the top of the ticket either. North Carolina LOVES Bush and let's not forget that Edwards only won his Senate seat with 52% of the vote. Bush took North Carolina with 56%. Edwards has a LOT of work to do to bring North Carolina to the Democratic column.

[no name no slogan]

22. All we need is what we got in 2000 + OH

...and we'd win, with or without FL. Dennis Kucinich can do this, especially given how high Shrub's negatives are (and how fast they're climbing). Hell, even "unnamed democrat" is kicking Shrub's sorry ass in recent polls-- this one's ours to lose in 2004!

Not only would we beat the Shrub, we'd also get a president who represents the core values of our party and would work for REAL CHANGE in this country.

[Ediacara]

7. Dean will win in a landslide

Ok.... so this is based off a dream I had a few weeks ago where we won the Dakotas.... but my election dreams seem to be batting 100 with raw results, so I think we should listen to my dream :-)

[Sandpiper]

10. I think beating George W. Bush

Is an easier task than what the wingnuts would like to believe. The fact of the matter is, Bush is unlikely to carry any of the states that he didn't carry last time, and if he loses one of them, he loses the election.

I think the dems have a good chance of picking up the following Bush states from 2000:

Missouri - a very pro labor state that has been hit hard by Bush economics.

Ohio - ditto

Florida - I don't think we'll be seeing a repeat of the "Jews for Buchanan" phenomenon. While the northern half is comprised of mostly redneck Bush lovers, the more populous southern half is mostly liberal northern transplants.

Arizona - during the Republican gains of 2002, they elected a female, democratic governor.

New Hampshire - In their hearts, northerners really don't like George W. Bush.

West Virginia - a traditional dem stronghold. 2000 was an anomoly.

Arkansas - If Clark gets the nomination, Bush can forget about this one.

[loyalsister]

14. Yep

NH-- Libertarian leaning Republicans are NOT happy. They are serious about their guns in NH, but they are also aware enough to consider the damage of another administration that includes Ashcroft. 2000 was also very close. I read today, that he won by only 7,000 votes or something.
Missouri could also definitely go Dem. I am getting the impression that a lot of people are unhappy. If we can get the vote out, we might be able to pull it off. The state legislators played NCLB to their disadvantage. The Republican speaker's district lost $1000. Other smaller districts with lesser ability to collect property taxes lost millions. They should be able to expose it for what it is here and get some of the rural voters we need so badly. If Dean is the candidate, it would really help to have the gun issue neutralized.

[mw]

17. Agreed. Rove plays the "inevitability card", and spins Bush's win

Bush is not an easy win. But Rove and his belief in the "bandwagon effect" will fight hard and long to create the "aura of inevitability" (which we've seen as the hallmark of the Bush M.O., including the Iraq attack vis-a-vis the UN) so that people THINK that Bush is a shoo-in.

I think he's not. And Bush is sure acting like a man living on borrowed time, the way he's selling off the US Treasury to his right wing "heirs" before he "dies" in 2004.

[Bucky]

11. After Dean, the deluge

Sorry, but I'm very pessimistic about Dean's chances. I think he's avoiding the "regional candidate" label because his region is the northeast.

The Republicans are holding their fire on him on three issues. Once he's nominated, get used to hearing about: Civil unions (repeated as "gay marriage" usually), Medicare (stealing a Democratic issue), and of course taxes taxes taxes.

Also he's running against a Republican, so expect a major smear on "character issues." I've not been impressed so far with Dean's ability to rise above the fray, which is the right strategy for dealing with character attacks--a favored Bush family tactic.

Dean has two issues working for him, the economy and Iraq. By October both of these issues will be partially neutralized.

In a Bush-Dean match up, paint this red:
The whole South, including Florida;
all the prairie/desert/Rockies states, including New Mexico and Minnesota;
Alaska;
Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, and possibly Pennsylvania.

Paint this blue:
All of New England, including New Hampshire;
New York, New Jersey, Maryland, & Delaware;
West Virginia;
Illinois & Wisconsin;
All the Pacific states except Alaska (Dean is tailor-made for the Northwest.)

Final tally:
Bush - 329 - 52%
Dean - 209 - 45%
Green - zippo - 2%

It won't be a landslide, but it'll be bad enough. Plus the usual Congressional slaughter in the South and a roll-back in recent gains in the non-coastal west.

[adadem]

12. Dean nomination

I agree in theory...Dean will not be able to beat bush. But I believe you're incorrect re: Michigan. We have not gone red in 16 years...and don't believe we will even if Dean gets the nod (God help us if he does). Another note is that many Dems will have a very difficult dilemma in casting a general election vote for Dean because of his NRA endorsements.

Cheryl - West Michigan

Help Oust Tom DeLay:
www.RichardMorrisonforDistrict22.com

[Bucky]

15. Dean & the NRA

The NRA will back Bush, of course. It won't be hard for Dean to cover his ass on this count. As easy as it will be for Bush to make it look like we're pulling out of Iraq by next October. If the war is still going bad in April, Iraq will be neutralized as an issue over the subsequent five months. Bank on it. Rove knows what a bottom line is.

[Bucky]

16. oop, a dupe

please delete

[Ediacara]

19. and Kerry (Dukakis' Lt Gov) can win?

His landslide loss would make Mike proud...

[Ediacara]

18. uh.... try again

Paint the whole northeast, and midwest blue, and many Rocky Mountain states like NM, AZ, CO, NV, and MT blue also.

[no name no slogan]

21. MN WILL NOT GO TO SHRUB

The last time we did was for Nixon in 1972, and even then we went Dem all the way back to Teddy Roosevelt.

With Shrub's negatives as high as they are NOW (and going higher as Iraq falls apart), there's NO WAY he can carry MN. Especially when you consider that Gore won MN by 4% last time, and that was with a 5+% GREEN turnout!