Democrats + Independents Vs. Republicans = Trouble for Bush

[papau]

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajority.com/index.cfm

Public Opinion Watch: Democrats + Independents Vs. Republicans = Trouble for Bush

Pew Research Center, The 2004 Political Landscape: Evenly Divided and Increasingly Polarized, November 5, 2003

Public Opinion Watch urges everyone to check out the just-released Pew Research Center study on "The 2004 Political Landscape". While the data have to be reviewed carefully–as Public Opinion Watch shows below–the message that shines through should be profoundly disturbing to the Bush re-election team and the GOP in general.

This is because their data show clearly that the political views of Democrats and independents are converging on one another and pulling away from the Republicans. In other words, it’s not just that Democrats and Republicans are becoming polarized against one another–the conventional wisdom–but that Democrats and independents (two-thirds of the electorate) are becoming polarized against Republicans. For Republicans who are inclined to see anomalous recall elections and victories in Mississippi as harbingers of realignment, this news couldn’t be more discouraging. And, for Democrats everywhere, it’s very good news indeed.

The Pew study shows Democrats and independents converging in their declining support for an assertive national security policy, in their increasingly negative views of their personal financial situation, in their growing worries that a prescription drug benefit for Medicare won’t go far enough and in their increasingly skeptical attitude toward business. In each case, Democrats and independents now hold views much closer to one another than to Republicans, who are off on their own trajectory.

Of course, translating this similarity in views into Democratic voting by independents remains a challenge, but one where Democrats start with the advantage of a compatibility of views. In contrast, the Republicans have managed to isolate themselves.<snip>

[Frodo]

1. Yes. And "Republicans + Independents Vs Democrats" =

"Trouble for us".

Proves in one equation that we need to be attracting the center, not moving left.

I considered that Pew report to be bad news. Every electoral strategy post I've seen here lately has started "Assume Dean (Kucinich,Kerry,whoever) starts with the states Gore won in 2000" and shows that we only need to add one or two more. This poll shows half a dozen "Gore" states that have gone from +4-6 Democratic to +4-6 Republican. States we are just "assuming" we will automatically get.


Yes, the center is the key. Because the number of people self-identifying themselves with us is drying up.

[Pez]

2. they should do a study detailing why those people went repuke...

is it policy or ideology? is it on positive or negative press coverage for dems or repukes? that's more important than a bunch of numbers. either people don't want to be associated with either party, or they are waiting for either party to make their case. what the case should be needs to be determined...

[Frodo]

4. There have been lots of studies.

It's an old equation. People vote Democrat when they are worried about the economy. People vote Republican when they are worried about national security.

All during the cold war we had tons of Republican presidents even with strong Democratic congresses. The republican was viewed as "strong on defense".

When te cold war was over it was "the economy stupid" and we were talking about what to do with the "peace dividend".

Now people see us as ebing at war again - so the right gets a bump. I don't know that this is a fundamental change in ideology.

[janx]

5. I was an Independent until recently...

when I registered Dem. I did it because of Dean, whom I've been watching closely since 2002, and whom I've supported in 2003. I want to take part in the caucus here next year.

But I voted for Dems as an independent. I wanted to keep my options open.

Independents are aligning with Dems now because the country is being pillaged by the far-right. It's frightening. It's only natural that sensible independent voters would want to keep the country on an even keel.

[pansypoo53219]

3. heck

he has to worry about REAL republicans.

[janx]

6. Are any of them still alive?

I wonder sometimes. If they are, they're pissed.

[genius]

7. The trouble is that we need to nominate someone like Dennis to pull

the independents and the Democrats together. Otherwise, Bush will win.