Edwards is the only candidate moving up in NH.

[AP]

This is from the campaign website.

Everytime someone criticizes Edwards for something , he proves them wrong. A couple weeks ago, the mantra here was "why's he polling so poorly?"

Of course he could go down again, but I bet you don't hear that mantra for a little while.

NEW HAMPSHIRE POLLS

A recent poll of New Hampshire voters conducted by Marist College shows Senator Edwards in third place, having nearly doubled his support since September. The poll shows Edwards ahead of Wesley Clark, Joe Lieberman and Dick Gephardt.

Another poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire shows Edwards is the only candidate moving up in New Hampshire. According to the University of New Hampshire poll director: "John Edwards is really the only one that's on the move up, both in terms of his numbers and as well as his favorability." WMUR, 11/14/03

[Closer]

1. When you're at the bottom

like Edwards, that's usually the only place you CAN go.

[Very Good Dem]

3. Perhaps

you wouldn't be so snide if you also consider that when you're at the top - at least according to your logic - the only place you can go is DOWN.

[sandnsea]

5. And DOWN it is, actually

Zogby 23% in Sept, 21% in October
Survey USA 23% in Sept, 22% in Oct
DesMoines Register 23% July, 20% in Nov

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/2004/IAPoll.htm

Frontrunner???

On edit:

Iowa polls

[helleborient]

17. Notice how you avoid NH polls...

With the corresponding bad news for Sen. Kerry.

Or Connecticut polls.

Or New York polls.

I could go on...

[surfermaw]

28. Edwards..3rd Place

What I didn't understand during the Iowa Jefferson Jackson..was Edwards applause was ten times the amount for Gep. Why?

[AP]

14. Actually, no. Dean and Kerry (1st and 2nd) went down. Lieberman, Clark,

Sharpton, CMB, Kucinich (4th through 8th) went down.

Edwards, in 3rd place, went up.

So, uhm, you're wrong.

But it makes a nice soundbite. Too bad it isnt' true.

[sandnsea]

2. What's his numbers?

Got a link. This is exciting news, it really is. I've always liked Edwards and thought he'd make a great candidate.

[pruner]

4. here's the two most recent NH polls… and neither supports Edwards' claim

Marist (September results in parenthesis)

Dean 44 (35)
Kerry 23 (22)
Edwards 7 (4)
Lieberman 6 (6)
Gephardt 6 (3)
Clark 3 (11)
Kucinich 3 (1)
Sharpton 1 (1)
Braun 0 (1)

http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/


WMUR (October results in parenthesis)

Dean 38 (30)
Kerry 16 (17)
Clark 5 (10)
Edwards 5 (5)
Lieberman 4 (6)
Gephardt 3 (4)
Kucinich 1 (3)
Sharpton 0 (1)
Braun 0 (1)
Other 0 (2)
Undecided 27 (20)

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/dem111403.pdf

[sandnsea]

6. Marist, 3rd place

It's what you posted. :shrug:

[pruner]

7. what about the UNH poll claims?

Another poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire shows Edwards is the only candidate moving up in New Hampshire. According to the University of New Hampshire poll director: "John Edwards is really the only one that's on the move up, both in terms of his numbers and as well as his favorability." WMUR, 11/14/03

Edwards 5 (5)

looks stagnant to me.

[DemDogs]

12. Internals look like real movement

Favorability up 12 points since last poll. Its the internals that pollsters look to, because they show trends with more precision than the raw vote totals.
Of course, I suppose the guy who did the poll could be wrong we he said that "Edwards is really the only one that's on the move up" and you could be right. After all, it's only his poll.

[dsc]

13. last I checked the idea that 5-5=0

wasn't open to debate.

[dsc]

8. I think the unsupported claims

are that only Edwards is moving up and that Edwards has doubled his support. Neither poll supports either claim.

[AP]

15. nevemind

I read the rest of the thread.

[DemDogs]

16. The pollsters think he is moving -- based on internals (n/t)

[pruner]

9. my main point was actually that Dean has moved up more than Edwards has

in both of those polls.

claims that Edwards is the only candidate moving up are FALSE.

[sandnsea]

10. Oh, okay

I see. I was more surprised he was in third place.

[pruner]

11. technically I suppose the claim is accurate…

Edwards is the only one whose position in the polls has moved up… but like someone pointed out above, Dean can't move up any higher (in terms of his position).

[helleborient]

18. But there's no corresponding rise in actual support...

And Dean is making gains.

[CMT]

19. it looks like Dean is moving up too according to Marist

the latest Marist poll gives Dean a 44-23 lead over Kerry, but in September it was 35-22 for Dean over Kerry. So Dean moved up nine-points in that poll and Kerry one.

[helleborient]

20. So undecideds broke 9-1 against Kerry in NH....

Wow!

[sandnsea]

21. NH, Republican controlled

2 pub Senators, 2 pub Congressman. I perfectly understand why they prefer the Rockefeller Republican.

[helleborient]

22. Stretching so hard...

To avoid the crushing bad news for John Kerry across the country.

[sandnsea]

25. lol

Nah, it's not going to happen that way. People will find out Howard's inconsistencies and that he was never a real Democrat in Vermont and they'll bail. No doubt in my mind. These NH Democrats who vote in Republicans though, not so sure and not so worried.

[CMT]

23. this is a poll among NH democrats and democratic leaning

Independents. Not involving Republicans. By the way, NH Dems are among the most dovish in the nation and a majority of them want a candidate who didn't support the war--and I think that paritally explains why Dean is doing so well in NH.

[sandnsea]

24. Dovish???

The pro-gun people? Okay.

I don't think it's the war vote at all or they wouldn't have supported Kerry to begin with. It's a media created stampede. "That Dean fellar looks pretty good." It can turn on a dime.

[helleborient]

26. That's why the poll numbers show that individuals supporting Dean...

Are significantly more likely to stay with him and vote for him than they are for Kerry?

People are smarter than you give them credit for...again it sounds like if they only were smart, and thought for themselves, they would support Kerry. That is offensive and elitist.

For the record, I started out with Kerry.

I started to turn after the Iraq vote.

Then he lost me entirely when I felt like his submission to the moveon.org primary did not take it seriously and was talking down to the people there, but he was still my #2.

Then I didn't like the gimmicky battleship.

Then I didn't like the gimmicky pheasant hunting.

Then I didn't like the offensive way in which he fired his campaign staff.

I could go on and on.

None of this had anything to do with media support for Dean. It had to do with John Kerry not being as good of a candidate for me.

Telling me I need to "wake up" or "look closer" will not change any of the facts above.

It seems like to me John Kerry doesn't want to earn my vote -- he thinks he is entitled to my vote. That offends me.

[CMT]

27. please look at this poll

http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/
look under heading Iraqi war
"majority of potential NH democratic primary voters are more likely to support a candidate who opposed the war. They favor Dean by a margin of 51-20."

Also while NH is a generally right of center state it doesn't mean it doesn't have a strong left wing minority. Remember that Democratic registration in NH is third after Repblicans and Independents--so yes, it appears there are many dovish Democratic leaning voters in NH.