LA: Bush Ahead in Louisiana

[goobergunch]

<snip>

The poll was taken by JPI Polling & Market Research on November 9-10. The sample included 667 registered voters, and the poll had a margin of error of +4/-4%.

Bush led an unnamed Democrat 51-to-36%. He was ahead of retired Gen.Wesley Clark 51-to-33% and bested former Vermont Gov.Howard Dean 52-to-33%.

<snip>

In a hypothetical matchup, Rep.Chris John (D) led Rep.David Vitter (R) 37-32% for next year's Senate race if John Breaux opts to retire.

more...http://www.polstate.com/archives/004658.html#004658

[dusty64]

1. Hmmm, this

does not look good. While the state should be contested, I doubt if I'd bother pouring too many resources into it. chimp's connections to Big Oil probably make a win here impossible, but we can't make it too easy for them.

[markus]

2. What will #s look like when he negotiates away sugar subsidy?

How much will be spent on the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the Energy Bill?

How many LA soldiers have died in Iraq? How many Reservists and Guard from LA have been gone for a year, and won't be home before April at the soonest?

I don't think 51% is so great.

[CMT]

3. this state is winnable

Bush is barely over 50%. Both Clark and Dean get a third of the vote. That is a solid anti-Bush vote to begin building on. Remember all the polls indicated Jindal would be the next governor of La too.

[jiacinto]

4. LA has a large Catholic population

It is winnable if the Dem nominee can neutralize the issue of guns and social liberalism.

[burr]

5. one assumes Montona would have more shrub backing than Louisiana...

Louisiana went to Clinton in 92 and 96. But Montona was only won by Clinton in 92. In Lousiana Gore won 45% of the vote compared to shrub's 53%, but in Montona Gore only won a third of the total vote while shrub won by over 58%.

And yet these polls now show Democratic contenders with less support in Lousiana than Gore won in 2000. They also show Shrub having the same level of support in Montona as an unnamed Democrat.

These trends seem to reveal a growing backlash against shrub in traditionally Republican states, while showing strong levels of support for him in the once solid Democratic south.

[helleborient]

6. But 51% with a Dem. Governor and 2 Dem. Senators...

Is not a strong standing.

I would assume both Senators and the Governor would come out strong for the Democratic ticket which will shift this advantage alone.

[burr]

7. I don't know about the Governor in Lousiana...

but my feeling is that both Senators in Lousiana will probably not endorse the nominee. I'm being positive...I'm not assuming they would pull a Zell Miller by endorsing shrub!

With John Breaux, he had already endorsed Clinton for President at this stage in 1991. He also endorsed Gore early on in 2000. My feeling being that if Breaux was going to endorse someone, he would of already done it! Landreui is a wildcard, she is just as likely to endorse shrub as one of the primary contenders. But time has shown that she is not someone to count on, especially if things get tough!

[nator311]

8. actually

there are rumors that Breaux is close to publicly endorsing Clark. Also, Landreiu would make a great VP nominee!

[Doomsayer13]

9. I'm sure both LA Sens will endorse the Dem nominee

Breaux is a blue dog while Landrieu is more liberal, but both are diehard Dems and I don't doubt their loyalty to the Dem party. I think they will endorse the nominee. the real question is whether they will campaign for said candidate as rigourously as they would a more moderate Dem.

[burr]

10. my perception has always been that Landrieu is right of Breaux...

Both are slightly more moderate than the conservative Bennett Johnston, Zell Miller, or Ben Nelson..but certainly more shrubish than Mark Pryor, Blanche Lincoln, or even Evan Bayh!

I agree that it would be a huge boost for Democrats if Breaux does endorse Clark, this isn't unlikely considering both Senators from Arkansas along with Gene Taylor in Mississippi have already done this.