<<<Well, here's a minor news item for today...>>>
Petroleum Review - Editorial - August 2004
http://www.energyinst.org.uk/index.cfm?PageID=948Global oil production now flat out
By the time this is being read, currently available oil production capacity all around the world will be producing flat out. How sustainable this proves to be remains to be seen.
For many years now non-Opec production has been operated at capacity, leaving Opec to fine tune production in order to achieve its price objectives. In economic terms, because no company or country had the capacity to challenge Opec, they had no choice but to be price takers, maximising earnings by maximising production.
Opec's record production of 31.7mn b/d in 1977 wasn't exceeded until November 2003, since then it has never been under that level. It reached 32.2mn b/d in March, dropped back a little in April and May, and then in June reached 32.65mn b/d.
On p26 Dr Salameh tackles the thorny question of how accurate are Middle East reserve estimates. His conclusion that these may be overstated by up to 300bn barrels, or roughly five North Seas, will certainly give pause for thought. If his assessments are right, the world faces very major challenges in developing and securing the oil supplies it will require.
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This news story reminds me of a passage in "Hubbert's Peak," written by Dr. Kenneth F. Deffeyes. He recalls sitting at home in the spring of 1971, and read an interesting one-sentence item in the San Franciso Chronicle that very few people could decipher at the time....
"The Texas Railroad Commission announced a 100 percent allowable for next month."
...but that single item announced that peak domestic U.S. oil production had indeed occured in 1970. According to Deffeyes, he thought to himself. 'Well, Dr. Hubbert was right'....(Hubbert was in Houston working for Shell at that time, and in 1956 had predicted U.S. peak oil b/t 1966 and 1972, for which he received much ridicle and skeptisim...)
I think the above article is my own "moment of clarity."
So, I'll share my feelings with these quotes...
“All truth passes through three stages: First it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.” - Schopenhauer, Philosopher
“You shall know the truth and the truth shall make you free.” - Inscription on the marble entranceway of the CIA headquarters, Langley, Virginia
“Every generation has its taboo, and ours is this: that the resource upon which our lives have been built is running out. We don't talk about it because we cannot imagine it. This is a civilization in denial.” - George Monibot, UK Guardian, December 2, 2003
“The world is not running out of oil. Or rather, not for a long time. What it is running out of is cheap oil, and soon.” - Colin J. Campbell, founder of The Association of the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO)
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