Econ data expected before Town Hall includes 153,000 new jobs!!

[papau]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=716&e=9&u=/ap/20041003/ap_on_bi_ge/wall_street_week_ahead

The Moday Commerce Department August factory orders are expected to show a modest 0.3 percent increase in orders.

The Tuesday Institute of Supply Management services index reading for September is expected to climb to 59.0 for the month, up slightly from the 58.2 reading in August.

The Friday DOL number per "Economists" is estimated at 153,000 jobs created in September.

After Friday DOL payroll survey jobs number is released and found to be low, it is expected that Greenspan will cover Bush's back in time for the Town Hall Debate by saying he remains upbeat about the economic recovery (this lie will be excused by the media as something he had to do to inject some reassurance into the market).

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Note that based on the pretend at home jobs guessing pattern, the 120,000 jobs added to the 24000 real jobs to get the created in Aug 144000 jobs should become only a 30000 fudge factor added to the real added jobs number in Sept. So real jobs added must increase from 24,000 to 123,000 to make the "economist's predictions" look good. It should be interesting.

http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm

2003 Net Birth/Death Adjustment (in thousands) Supersector Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Total
.................... 128 192 164 -83 124 33 45 30 62

2004 Net Birth/Death Adjustment (in thousands) Supersector Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Total
-321 115 153 270 195 182 -91 120

[bluestateguy]

1. He needs 913,000 for there to be a net gain on his watch

150,000 is just enough to keep pace with the workforce growth. You don't get credit for treading water.

[papau]

2. True - but Friday Debate will include a jobs question - and under 153K

will make the question hard to answer!

:-)

[acmavm]

3. Okay, how does this measure up in relation to all the companies that

are laying off right now. Every month you see notices of layoffs. Do they compare the lost jobs for any given month to the ones that we've supposedly gained?

Their employment numbers are all bogus anyway. And they'll really be spinning the shit before the Town Hall debate. Here's Kerry's chance to really kick some ugly bush* butt.

[ikojo]

4. What kind of wages and benefits do most of these

alleged new jobs provide? If they are not as good or better than the jobs lost then people will still be hurting.

[HysteryDiagnosis]

5. Take your McCheck to the McBank.... and see how

far it gets you.....

[tritsofme]

6. No way we see 150k+

I'm guessing 50-75k.

[Robert Oak]

7. Manufacturing new orders decreased 0.3B or 0.1%

http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/index.htm

New orders for manufactured goods in August decreased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $370.5 billion, the Department of Commerce, Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.7 percent July increase. Shipments, up five of the last six months, increased $4.0 billion or 1.1 percent to $376.1 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.9 percent July increase. Unfilled orders, up twelve of the last thirteen months, increased $1.8 billion or 0.3 percent to $535.6 billion. This followed a 1.2 percent July increase. Inventories, up nine consecutive months, increased $2.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $460.9 billion. This followed a 1.0 percent July increase.


Looks like Kerry has some stuff to work with...

oops, I forgot, Americans will have no idea what he's talking about
anyway.

[papau]

8. A modest 0.3% increase expectedversus a decrease-too complicated for Media

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a4gJYD6C93cw&refer=news_index

Aug. Factory Orders Fall 0.1%; Rise Ex-Trans. (Update1)
Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. factory orders fell in August for the first time in four months, reflecting lower demand for commercial aircraft, a government report showed. <snip>

[papau]

9. Service index climb to 59 is really a drop to 56.7 - Media is ignoring!

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aZCG90ix5n5Y&refer=top_world_news

Dollar Weakens Against Euro; Services Index Falls in September
Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell from a one-week high against the euro after U.S. services businesses expanded at the slowest pace since May of 2003. The report added to concern the economy is struggling to gain momentum amid record oil prices.

Demand for the dollar waned after the Institute for Supply Management said its index of non-manufacturing companies dropped to 56.7 last month from 58.2 in August. The measure was expected to show an increase to 59, according to the median of 61 economists' forecasts in a Bloomberg survey.

``The ISM is definitely not helping the dollar,'' said Lara Rhame, a currency strategist in New York at Credit Suisse First Boston. To confirm the economic slowdown earlier this year is over, ``you'd be hoping to see these indicators turning up at this point, not easing lower.''

Against the euro, the dollar traded at $1.2301 at 11:18 a.m. in New York from $1.2288 late yesterday, according to EBS, an electronic currency-dealing system. The U.S. currency reached $1.2257 yesterday, its strongest since Sept. 27. The dollar was at 111.33 yen from 110.98. CSFB predicts the dollar will decline to $1.25 per euro in three months. <snip>