Leading Indicators Down for 5th Month (not necessarily a recession coming)

[papau]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&ncid=749&e=6&u=/nm/20041118/bs_nm/economy_index_dc


Gary Thayer, chief economist with A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis. "It's signaling .... not necessarily a recession."



http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&nci...

Leading Indicators Down for 5th Month

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A key forecasting gauge of future U.S. economic activity fell for a fifth straight month in October, a private research firm said on Thursday.


The Conference Board (news - web sites) said its index of leading indicators fell 0.3 percent in October to 115.1, a fifth straight monthly decline. The index fell by a matching 0.3 percent in both September and August. The September figure was downwardly revised from a previously reported drop of 0.1 percent.


"A fifth straight decline in the leading indicators is a clear signal that the economy is losing steam, and may start off 2005 with a relatively weak pace of economic activity," Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein said in a statement.


The Conference Board said the decline in the October leading index was led by several negative contributors, notably consumer expectations, money supply and the interest rate spread. <snip>

[whistle]

1. If the indicators go down again, then I believe we are in for a recession

...2 straight quarters of declines flag a recession is on the way. Now we can also predict pretty much what this congress will do to stem a recession. They'll implement more tax cuts for the wealthy, increase federal spending on the military, encourage more job outsourcing to other countries, invade one or two hostile countries to export freedom abroad and double faith based initiatives spending to Christian organizations. The things that will have to be dropped are, education funds, social security, medicare and medicaid spending and other social programs which interfere with the true capitalistic process. That will be the business of the next congressional session for 2005. Did I forget anything?

[papau]

2. Per WSJ rule of 2 qtrs down, we never had a recession, except if we

want to discuss the lousy econmy that Bush inherited.

As we stimulate overseas buying through welfare for corporations via Pentagon contracts that are filled overseas, that stimulus is counted as GDP (as in d=domestic) despite the rules that supposed to prevent such an accounting.

Sure would hate to cut the US deficit and not stimulate the overseas economy.

I once though our media employed smart folks -- sigh...

Our mediawhores are just PR blurb reprint folks - and the original writers of the PR blurb write fiction so as to cover up the war of the rich on the rest of us. Class warfare is bad if the non-rich try to tax the rich. Otherwise it is good.

And now we will end taxation on 90% of the income of the rich by ending taxation on investment returns. Offset by ending corporate deductions for health insurance premiums paid for employee health care.

And our media says nothing.

[tritsofme]

3. Can you believe that with a $500 billion deficit

we are facing the possibility of a recession in the near future?

That's amazing to me.

[grease_monkey]

4. Well, that settles it-no recession coming.

Because I have never seen an instance an inaccurate article in the business neews promising that no recession was coming. Once they say it in the paper, the issue is settled.