Less than half of reported new jobs over last year came from reported hire

[papau]

Under Bush, less than half of reported new jobs comes from actual reported job increases picked up by the DOL business establishment survey that is used to project total employment.

There are 80,000 jobs that are included in the Bush number based on a never checked guess of jobs not reporting (described as caused by an unavoidable lag between an establishment opening for business and its appearing on the sample frame and being available for sampling), the calculation of the guess being the addition of 2 components where the first is "reflecting" a micro level database actual residue over 5 years together with an additional component derived from a "time series model" that as part of the total guess is never checked to real data but is "updated and reviewed" on a quarterly basis, plus a second guess that is part of the total that uses business deaths to impute employment for business births, incorporated by simply not reflecting sample units going out of business, but imputing to them the same trend as the other firms in the sample.

2005 Net Birth/Death Adjustment (in thousands)
……. Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Total 206 191 176 -72 125 50 57 21 63

2006 Net Birth/Death Adjustment (in thousands)
…….. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Total -193 116 135 271 211 175

Running 12 months -72 125 50 57 21 63 -193 116 135 271 211 175 or a
12 month total of 959 giving a 12 month average addition of 80,000 jobs

DOL TABLE 4. Employment change from same month a year ago, in thousands, seasonally adjusted

..................Jun. 2005 Jun. 2006 --------
................. employment employment change
Total nonfarm....133376.0 135230.0 1854.0

So 895,000 of the reported 1,854,000 new jobs, less than half, comes from reported job increases.

So when the article below says "Economy Still Not Generating Enough Jobs", that's not the half of it - literally.


http://blog.aflcio.org/2006/07/07/economy-still-not-gen... /

Economy Still Not Generating Enough Jobs

Despite Bush administration claims that the economy is strong, job growth fell far behind the rate expected for the third month in a row, according to the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report. The nation’s job machine, which never really revved up after the recession, is slowing down—and that could mean even fewer jobs in the future, according to a report by the Economic Policy Institute.

The economy generated only 121,000 new jobs in June, for a quarterly average of 108,000 per month, far below the previous quarter’s average rate of 176,000, making this the slowest quarter for job growth since the third quarter of 2003, says EPI senior economist Jared Bernstein.

The increase in jobs is not even enough to keep up with the increase in the nation’s population, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today the private sector added only 90,000 jobs last month—86,000 per month over the quarter—a clear sign that the economy is generating fewer jobs, Bernstein says

[eviltwin2525]

1. what a crock

If you bury a bucket full of statistics under enough mumbo-jumbo and important-sounding jargon, you can make it say anything you want, and not only will nobody be the wiser -- nobody will even dare question it for fear of looking stupid.