U.S. recession could be worse than recent downturns

[CGowen]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The chances of the United States avoiding a recession appear to be growing dimmer by the day, and any contraction in the economy will likely last longer and be more severe than other downturns in the past 20 years.

...

Frankel said members of NBER's business-cycle dating panel have been in contact with each other over the prospect of a recession through e-mails, but it would likely take months, or perhaps even more than a year, for the panel to determine whether the economy had turned down.

...

While the central bank has said it expects inflation to moderate, there are signs lofty energy prices have begun to filter through to prices more widely.
The government said last week that the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge, the core price index for personal spending excluding food and energy, rose 2.2 percent last year, above the 2.0 percent ceiling seen as the top of the "comfort zone" for the index.

At the same time, the government's budget is moving further from balance. On Monday, President George W. Bush released a budget plan that would see the U.S. deficit widen to $410 billion for the current fiscal year and $407 billion for fiscal 2009, not far from the record hit in fiscal 2004.


...

"My biggest concern right now is the consumer. The consumer is highly levered and when the economy faces a credit crunch on in a highly levered scenario, then you have trouble," warned Aleman.


http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN0563297420080205?sp=true

[CGowen]

1. Recession is here - economists

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x2823431

[ixion]

2. and while the panel sits in its belltower trying to 'determine' if there is a recession (or worse)

the rest of us are going down with the ship.

Herein lies the crux of the problem.

[sendero]

3. There is no "could be" about it.

... it's going to be worse than anything since the 30s.

The only reason the MSM isn't talking about how bad it is is that most of them are in the pocket of this administration and they desperately want to blame this crap on the next administration.

[Warpy]

4. Well, duh

our special ed pundits are finally catching up to what most people on this board have known for a very long time, that you can't suppress wages, concentrate wealth and base a consumer economy on debt for very long before disaster strikes.

That goes for individuals as well as for their government.