How high did the Dow go?

[TrogL]

On the CBC this morning on the drive in, I heard a report that the DOW was within 50 points of a record high, somewhere in the 10000 range. I seem to remember it hitting 14,000 during the dot-com bubble.

Is the current spike "irrational exhuberance" (to quote Greenspan) or is there actual, real muscle behind it?

[beyurslf]

1. I don't think we ever hit 14,000

I was thinking we peaked just over 11 or maybe just under. Anyone recall?

[bemildred]

2. APPROX: 11,500 is what I remember. NT

[CaptainClark23]

3. $ Value

Someone yesterday imparted to me something I know I had overlooked in looking at the market numbers and what they indicated.

Since 2000, the USD has depreciated somewhere around 35%. Factoring this depreciation in belies the rosy situation of the market numbers.

11,500 today is NOT the equivalent of 11,500 in 2000. I don't hear any of the cheerleaders addressing this point.

The record high, wherever it is, isn't. (how's that for syntax....)

[mastein]

7. It is the same 30 stocks

Last I remember the Dow components were changed last in about 1999 at the height of the dot com boom. So your statement about 11500 now not equaling 11500 then would have to be in error. That said, I think there are some of the 30 that have faired far better than others. Our "friends" at Microsoft (a dow company) have seen their prices crash as much as 85% before rebounding to their current level about 60% off their highs. On the other hand, GE a defense and finace company has had no such problem.

One other general note: The dow represents 30 large companies that are supposedly from all sectors of the economy to give us a "snap shot" of the economy. Since computer technology has come so far in the last generation, we now have a moving index of a several thousand company stock exchange (NASDAQ) and real time numbers from both the S&P 500 (the 500 largest companies in Am.) and the Russell 3000 (a much broader index). If you want to see how well the economy is doing across the board I think those "broader" indicies are a much better indicator.

My thoughts and my thoughts alone. Please in the name of good debate, feel free to assail and all of my points. By questioning each other we sharpen each other and make ourselves better as a group.

[CaptainClark23]

8. No dispute here

My "calculations" were so rough so as not to be worthy of the name.

The point I am trying to make is one of perception, not hard cold data. Many american citizens wouldn't know what to do with a fraction of the available market indicators. But they are fed a constant stream of blather about the Dow. Regardless of what level it is at. If it is "low" the anchorperson looks grim. If it is "high", the anchorman is smiling. Thats the economic weathervane for most of the population.

The fact that we are back up closer to the "magic numbers" of better times is interpreted by the average joe as meaning that we are back to the same economic position as the last time we had that "magic number".

Seeing we're back up 10,000, Joe Consumer thinks the worst is past, the economy is improving, and maybe he CAN afford that new truck now. When in reality the fundamentals of the economy are arguably in the crapper, and the dollar itself has depreciated quite a bit since the last time we saw those numbers. This is the bit that Mr. Everyman misses. And seeing how the market system cannot function without the participation (concious or no) of Everyman, his perceptions are critical to the continuing operation of the system.

And so he proceeds on an inaccurate interpretation of reality, compounded by the media cheerleaders who support those misconceptions with their odious spinning.

[rock]

4. I thought I recalled it being 12000 or a little above

So I checked Yahoo. According to it's graph, about 11700 was max just before bushsucks* took over (Jan 01). Let's see, that would have been when Clinton was President, wouldn't it (snicker, snicker).

[Sir_Shrek]

5. 11400-500 or something

One thing to keep in mind with "highs ince "...

Sometimes, all the Dow/NASDAQ has to do is go up a single point to achieve some kind of new reocrd high. Think about it, let's say the highest the stock market ever was was 12000, back in....1990. If the Dow hit 12000 tomorrow, we'd hear "Dow Reaches highest point since 1990". Then let's say it goes up 1 point the next..12001. Not a huge deal. Well, then we'd have "DOW AT HIGHEST POINT EVER!!!" But so what, it only went up one point!

The stock market is a long term animal....one day is not going to tell you what's going on.

[junker]

6. 11722 intra day