Manufacturing Falls to 26-Year LowActivity in the nation's manufacturing sector, beleaguered by tightfisted consumers and the global credit crisis, declined last month to the lowest level in more than two decades, offering economists more evidence that the country is entering a deep recession.
The Institute for Supply Management's index of conditions in the manufacturing sector is at its lowest level since the nation was in a recession in September 1982. Export orders have collapsed, and businesses appear to be struggling to sell inventories of items ranging from appliances to tobacco products, the report said.
"The bottom line is that this a very negative survey result and probably does spell a deep recession," said Abiel Reinhart, an economist at J.P. Morgan Chase.
The survey's index registered a score of 38.9. That figure, while probably obscure to most Americans, is a clear indication to economists that the manufacturing sector is shrinking markedly -- in fact, any figure below 50 indicates a contraction. The index was 43.5 in September.
Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist with High Frequency Economics, which advises institutional investors, called the new figure "hideous" and added that "when you see a number like this, it's very alarming."
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Reinhart said the manufacturing news was especially concerning given that less than a week ago the government reported that personal consumption had fallen at a 3.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the worst decline since 1980. "This new number, that number, they both suggest that the magnitude of the recession is going to be furious," he said.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/03/AR2008110302192.html