Report: 2.5 Million Jobs Lost if Detroit's auto production should drop 50%

[JohnWxy]

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/economy-watch/2008/11/report_3m_jobs_lost_with_autom.html

The Center for Automotive Research said this morning that if Detroit's (former) Big Three -- GM, Ford and Chrysler -- fail, it will mean the loss of 3 million jobs across the entire auto sector in the first year of collapse.

Should Detroit production drop by 50 percent -- suppose the failure of one of the Big Three and a merger between the other two and subsequent contraction -- some 2.5 million jobs would be lost, the report says.

"To permit any of the Detroit Three manufacturers to collapse would scar the U.S. economy further at a time when it can ill afford another blow," David Cole, chairman of the Center for Automotive Research, said in a statement. "The likelihood of one or two of the Detroit Three manufacturers ending operations is very real."


Big 3, UAW To Meet With Speaker Pelosi

The auto industry is asking the federal government to provide $25 billion in loans.

Dave Cole from the Center of The Automotive Research Center said the $25 billion bailout would be cheaper for the American Taxpayers than the 100 percent collapse of the American Auto industry.

If the auto industry completely collapsed it would cost the country 3 million jobs from the automakers to suppliers.

The nation's economy would have $150 billion less in personal income and the government would lose roughly $60 billion in tax revenue in the first year alone.

"Just think of the two plus million people paying taxes and all of a sudden they're not paying taxes -- they're collecting unemployment," said Cole, as he posed the question of what would happen to the Social Security fund.

Pelosi has called for Congress to enact a stimulus program to shore up the sinking economy during its lame-duck session.
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GM's survival time without aid can be measured in months not years. THis is a critical situation. The lame duck Congress must address immediately (but will Republicans care enough to act?? - they will just see this as helping out a lot of Democratic voting blue collar workers (UNIONIZED blue collar workers - Disgusting!!!))

GM has cut all product development programs except the Camaro (??) and the Volt.

[mike_c]

1. I thought the free market was supposed to take care of problems like this....

That's what Reagan said, right? :rofl:

Here's a thought-- we could pay billions to shore up the U.S. auto industry so they could continue to build cars that apparently too few people want, and continue to drive the need for more oil that is disappearing at an unsustainable rate, then we could shove those unwanted cars back down the bore pipe to refill the holes left when the oil wells go dry! Voila! Two problems solved at once! :crazy:

[JohnWxy]

9. Actually, before the gas prices shot up SUVs big and little were selling like hot-cakes.

http://usnews.rankingsandreviews.com/cars-trucks/daily-news/081103-Do-You-Vote-Like-Your-Car-/


Compact SUV drivers are about equally likely to belong to either party -- 21 percent of them are Republicans, 26 percent are Democrats, and the remaining are Independents or undecided --but the politics trend decidedly Republican as the SUVs get bigger. In fact, large SUV owners are more than twice as likely to be Republicans as they are to be Democrats. That may explain why Sarah Palin drives a full-size Chevrolet Tahoe.

McCain Needs to Think Outside the Econobox

While Republicans rumble around in trucks and SUVs, what are Democrats driving? According to the survey, affordable small cars are more likely to be driven by Democrats than Republicans. About 43 percent of people who drive budget cars, such as the Honda Fit and Chevy Aveo, say they're Democrats. Only 14 percent of those budget car owners identify as Republicans.

[amdezurik]

2. it would be a bad thing of course

but is it really a "good thing" to keep propping up companies that refuse to build cars that only idiots would buy?

[JohnWxy]

5. THis current crisis is largely the result of the Credit Catastrophe. Even Toyota's sales were down

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200811031439DOWJONESDJONLINE000517_FORTUNE5.htm">23% in October. THis is due to credit being practically non-existent.


Definitely, Detroit management could be better (the huge increase in gas prices this year really was the first shot that brought them down part way, now this Credit Crisis may do the rest.) but the costs of all three automakers going bust or two of them going down would be huge. There are many others outside the auto industry who would eventually lose jobs or take cuts in hours because of all the money these workers spend would not be there.

I don't know just what the odds are but we are teetering on the edge of going into a Depression - not a Recession but a real Depression. If an industry the size of the auto industry significantly shrinks it will have ripple affects throuhgout the economy. It would be very unfortunate if people realized this too late.

I feel pretty confident that Congress will realize this and do something quickly (it has to be quickly) - even the Republicans (or I should say enough of them) I think will realize this and thus the Democrats will not be kept from taking timely action.

This problem is really just another part of the Credit Catastrophe.

[amdezurik]

6. Detroit was in a lot of trouble

before the credit debacle. high gas prices were driving their sales through the floor. And that was all their own fault (the management)

[Kolesar]

10. There just may be one of those "two sentence trolls" on your thread

And, btw, I wrote to Congressman Latourette to advocate for aid for the domestic automakers. :)

[natrat]

3. here come the twister

Dust Bowl Children – Peter Rowan

Papa’s name was Hannibal, Mama was Hanna-Mariah.
Everything we owned got all burned up in the great depression fire
Strip mines and one crop farming drained the green earth dry.
We lost it all till only love was left, and the one thing money can’t buy.

Yeah we’re all Dust Bowl Children
Singin’ the dust bowl song
Well, the crops won’t grow,
And the dust just blows

And the green fields are gone.
And the green grass growing fields are gone.

When the green fields are gone.
When the green grass growing fields are gone.

Well, they said in California, there’s work of every kind.
The only work that I got out there was waiting on a welfare line.
Once I had a dollar, once I had a dream.
Now all the work is being done by a big ole machine.

Yeah we’re all Dust Bowl Children
Singin’ the dust bowl song
Well, the crops won’t grow,
And the dust just blows

And the green fields are gone.
And the green grass growing fields are gone.

Let the green fields grow strong.
There’s a bluegrass revival going on.
Let the green fields grow strong,
There’s a grassroots revolution going on.

[JohnWxy]

7. Dust Bowl era picture -

http://www.geocities.com/jwalkerxy/Republican_sucker.htm

[madrchsod]

4. the japanese government subsided their auto industry for years

i guess millions more out of work is the american way.....well unless it`s a bank that gets billions to do what?

produce nothing?

the upside is that the japanese ,korean,and european manufactures can make non union cars and take the profits back to their country. oh lets not forget the huge tax breaks we give them to locate their plants here--
what a sweet deal they`ll get--tax payer subsided land /tax breaks and labor at 2/3 of what our industry pays.

[JohnWxy]

8. No doubt at least half the guys in this picture voted Republican in their day.

http://www.geocities.com/jwalkerxy/depression_line.htm

[Kolesar]

11. Nissan got $6 billion from the Japanese government

and their markets have always been protected from overseas competition. They protect the markets for a lot of manufactured products besides autos, too.

[Dover]

12. Bravo! Let's reward those automakers for a job well done! ...n/t