CNBC talking head said retailers are cutting orders back 4-12% for spring.

[Doremus]

I caught a couple of minutes of CNBC this morning. The person being interviewed (sorry, didn't catch who it was) said that retailers are scaling way back on 2009 inventory orders -- by something like 4-12%.

Does that sound right?

Do you think the credit crunch plays into that at all or is this entirely based on their sales forecast?

If that's their forecast, we're in deeper trouble than I thought. :scared:

[Zynx]

1. That's severe. I mean really, really, really bad.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

2. A combination

of credit crunch and sales projections. Think of it. If you have a store in that town in Ohio that lost 7000 jobs when DHL closed its doors, you're not going to be buying much of anything, but just hoping you can hold on to your business with the inventory that you have.

I went into several stores yesterday looking for long johns (no luck--guess they are "not in style"). The one that was busiest was the thrift store. The other stores had lots of merchandise on the shelves but no one appeared to be buying all that much. More small businesses closing in the town where I work, too--can't be good for anyone's bottom line.

[grasswire]

10. order your long johns from LLBean

Surely they must still sell them.

[defendandprotect]

15. I'd really love to see change/overturning of the trade agreements --

and slam the door on the companies that shipped jobs out--

[onehandle]

3. Apple just reduced laptop orders by 20%-30%.

And that's a huge profit center for them.

Hold on to your jobs and pennies, kiddies.

[doc03]

4. The steel company I work for cut production

world wide by 30% and they don't look for any improvement until possibly the 4th quarter of next year or the 1st quarter of 2010. It's bad, real bad. Don't worry be happy.

[defendandprotect]

5. Specifically, we had a fantastic Lord & Taylor in our town ...

but contrary to reality of aging population, they began to shift to catering to

teens --

At the same time they began to cut clothing items the town always bought there --

I bought stuff for my entire family --

gradually, much of the desired merchandise disappeared.

In the middle of this about 6 years ago, MACY's bought them -- and that's a

retail nightmare--!!

Anything of quality has been tossed out and replaced with expensive designer lines ..

affordable or desirable only for few --

and otherwise poor quality merchandise --

I'm torn between being really angry -- and fearing we'll totally lose the store-!!

The town wants NO part of Macy's and they're torturing the remaining sales people with

really stupid meetings, promotions, etal.

So -- their sales are way down --

Sales used to bring huge numbers into store .. now not worth going --



PS: I think women must have noticed how many successful clothing manufacturers

are gone now -- name brands largely disappeared as stores rushed to buy lesser

quality imported goods they could make more $$ on --

Capitalism isn't about competition, it's about killing the competition --

[grasswire]

11. Macy's is in the red.

They had a loss in the third quarter this year. I was at the local Macy's and went to the third floor where there were no shoppers and NO staff. This is women's apparel, children's wear and furniture. Finally I spotted a clerk and went up to her and said "Excuse me" and she jumped like someone in a horror film does. "Oh! You scared me!!"

Unbelieveable.

[defendandprotect]

14. Didn't know that ...

guess either they don't want to sell L&T or can't find buyer --??

"NO STAFF" is their usual practice ---

Well, they're also emptying L&T -- sadly--!!

[CoffeeCat]

6. This isn't suprising...

...because consumer spending always drastically decreases during the first couple of months in the new year.

People spend a great deal during the holiday season. Then, most spend Jan and Feb paying off some of that
debt or just conserving more, to make up for the extra money they spent during that holiday season.

I grew up in a family that owned businesses in several malls. Compared to Nov/Dec numbers--Jan, Feb
sales were down about 70 percent. That was expected and typical.

Consumers are justifiably afraid now--and they are saving their money. Many retailers and hoping and praying
that the holiday season is lucrative for them. However, I think most of them see the writing on the wall.
Sales will increase, but I believe it will be a horrible holiday season. Everyone I've talked with is cutting
back this holiday season. They're buying, but not like they have in the past.

I imagine that many stories will have massive inventories after the holidays.

It's possible that cuts in Spring orders could be due to retialers anticipating a
glut of merchandise that failed to move during the holidays.

Furthermore, the natural contraction of spending in Jan and Feb--will probably be even worse this cycle. People
are scared as hell. If they suck it up and go out and buy presents this holiday season, you can bet that they'll
be cutting spending even more than they usually do in Jan/Feb--to compensate for their holiday spending.

The only upside is that there will be so many bargains in early-mid 2009, as stores will be scrambling to
move inventory. If you need something, you will be able to purchase it cheap.

[Doremus]

8. Is spring Jan and Feb?

I hope it is and that you're right 'cause in a consumer economy that rises and falls on higher sales, retailers actually planning to sell far less next year doesn't sound very, well, profitable.

[JohnWxy]

9. the scale-back of orders of 4-12% is compared to what they ordered for the same time period in 2008.

the expectations are based upon what they expect buyers to buy. This is entirely affected by the Credit Catastrophe which is going to cause layoffs all over the place. People sense their jobs are in doubt and are not spending. Banks will hold onto the bail-out money till things look better. Things won't look better until employers can get short term loans for inventory and to make payrolls. If you wait for the banks to save the economy you might as well forget it. They will wait for the economy to look better before the loan to anybody.

so we'll never get there if we count on the banks. That is why the Government must pass a stimulus package and start spending money.

Do things look bad? damn right they look bad. We are going into a deep recession. there is a 50:50 chance of a depression. If GM and Ford and Chrysler are not helped out of their current liquidity crisis the chance of a depression goes to 100%.

[Joanne98]

7. It will hurt the Chinese more than us.

[Citizen Number 9]

12. Maybe...

China has immense cash reserves and has just committed a portion of it to 'stimulate' their economy by improving infrastructure. They could do the same thing next year and still have cash left.

[Citizen Number 9]

13. Huge, compared to October at -2.8%

a retail sales drop which was the worst in more than 15 years.