Revisited - The Real Reasons for the Upcoming War w/ Iraq

[Petrodollar Warfare]

For those who recall the essay from a year ago regarding the Iraq/oil/dollar vs. euro thesis, it has been updated with a "post-war" commentary from Jan 2004. The essay also includes a more thorough analysis of US geostratgy regarding Peak Oil. It's a long essay, but is the basis for an upcoming book (1/2 was written a year ago, the second half in Jan 2004). Below is the link for those who are interested:

Original essay w/ updates (Note: 50 pages when printed in pdf format)

http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/RRiraqWar.html

Link to just the Janaury 2004 update (several typos in this draft, but I think folks will find it quite stimulating...)

http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/RRiraqWar.html#p4

(from the website)
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Revisited - The Real Reasons for the Upcoming War With Iraq:
A Macroeconomic and Geostrategic Analysis of the Unspoken Truth

Note to readers:

I would like to thank the hundreds of people from all over the world that emailed me positive feedback throughout 2003 with respect to my research and Internet based essay on the Iraq war. Based on your overwhelmingly positive feedback and my own sense of patriotic duty, I am currently writing a book based on this research. Additionally, I am also working with a former government economist to construct an empirical model studying the possible effects of the dollar's valuation in response to a euro currency pricing mechanism for OPEC producers. The results of will hopefully be included in the proposed forthcoming book, tentatively entitled: Petrodollar Warfare: Oil, Iraq, and the Future of the Dollar (Available Fall 2004).

For those who are already familiar with my original pre-war essay from January and March 2003, you may want to skip the opening parts of this essay and review the expanded section explaining the importance of Hydrocarbons regarding Peak oil and US Geostrategy, and then review my somewhat lengthy update from January 1, 2004. The main flaw from my original essay a year ago was an excessive focus on the macroeconomic perspectives of the Iraq war. In this essay, and in the forthcoming book, I have attempted to remedy this deficiency by including a detailed analysis of the oil depletion/geostrategic aspects, which appear to be second coalescing factor that lead to the Iraq war.

"To the living we owe respect, but to the dead we own only the truth."
-Voltaire


Summary

Although completely unreported by the U.S. media and government, the answer to the Iraq enigma is simple yet shocking -- it is in large part an oil currency war. One of the core reasons for this upcoming war is this administration's goal of preventing further Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) momentum towards the euro as an oil transaction currency standard. However, in order to pre-empt OPEC, they need to gain geo-strategic control of Iraq along with its 2nd largest proven oil reserves. The second coalescing factor that is driving the Iraq war is the quiet acknowledgement by respected oil geologists and possibly this administration is the impending phenomenon known as Global "Peak Oil." This is projected to occur around 2010, with Iraq and Saudi Arabia being the final two nations to reach peak oil production.

The issue of Peak Oil has been added to the scope of this essay, along with the macroeconomics of `petrodollar recycling' and the unpublicized but genuine challenge to U.S. dollar hegemony from the euro as an alternative oil transaction currency. The author advocates graduated reform of the global monetary system including a dollar/euro currency `trading band' with reserve status parity, a dual OPEC oil transaction standard, and multilateral treaties via the UN regarding energy reform. Such reforms could potentially reduce future oil currency and oil warfare. The essay ends with a reflection and critique of current US economic and foreign policies. What happens in the 2004 US elections will have a large impact on the 21st century.

[TrogL]

1. Could you explain "Peak Oil"

I've been seeing this for awhile and I don't quite get it.

[Petrodollar Warfare]

2. Global Peak Oil is basically a bell-shaped curve representing..

..the global production of a finite resoruce - oil and gas. It has come jagged edges along the way, but in esence the world was endowed with between 1.8 trillion and 2.0 trillion barrels of oil. We have just about used 50% of the world's oil, and global peak is predicted to occur b/t 2004-2010, but many retired geologist think 2004-2007 is now the proper timeframe. (The "political" data from 2000 was upwardly revised by the USGS used a very flawed method of "reserve growth" that suggests the world has 3 trillion barrels of recoverable oil, which would imply a global peak in 2037.)

Anyhow, these issues re oil production are discussed in my essay, here's the specific link:

http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/RRiraqWar.html#p2b