2003 full year GDP growth is 3.1% - and this will get Bush a win in Nov?

[papau]

Over the whole of 2003, output in the world's biggest economy was up 3.1 percent. In the 4th quarter they expected 5% - they got 4% and consumer spending dropped to 2.6 percent, down from 6.9 percent in the 3rd quarter.



GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FOURTH QUARTER 2003 (ADVANCE)= 4%

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and propertylocated in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 4.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003,according to advance estimates released by the Bureau ofEconomic Analysis. In the third quarter, realGDP increased 8.2 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter "advance" estimates are based on source data thatare incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3). The fourth-quarter "preliminary" estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be released on February 27,2004.

The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were personal consumptionexpenditures (PCE), exports,equipment and software, inventory investment, and residential fixedinvestment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a deceleration inPCE, an acceleration in imports, and decelerations in equipment and software and in residential fixedinvestment that were partly offset by an acceleration in exports and an upturn in inventory investment.

Final sales of computers contributed 0.25 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in realGDP after contributing 0.65 percentage point to the third-quarter change.

The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,increased 1.0 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent in the third.Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.1 percent inthe fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the third.


FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwisespecified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2000)dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.

This news release is available on BEA's Web site at <www.bea.gov/bea/rels.htm> ;.


Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter, compared withan increase of 6.9 percent in the third. Durable goods purchases increased 0.9 percent, compared with anincrease of 28.0 percent. PCE purchases of motor vehicles decreased in the fourth quarter afterincreasing in the third. The fourth-quarter downturn was partly offset by an upturn in motor vehicleinventory investment. PCE nondurable goods increased 4.4 percent, compared with an increase of 7.3percent. Services expenditures increased 2.1 percent, compared with an increase of 2.8 percent.

Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with anincrease of 12.8 percent in the third. Nonresidential structures decreased 3.0 percent, compared with adecrease of 1.8 percent. Equipment and software increased 10.0 percent, compared with an increase of17.6 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 10.6 percent, compared with an increase of21.9 percent.

Real exports of goods and services increased 19.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with anincrease of 9.9 percent in the third. Real imports of goods and services increased 11.3 percent,
compared with an increase of 0.8 percent.

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 0.7 percent inthe fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent in the third. National defense increased 1.8percent, in contrast to a decrease of 1.3 percent. Nondefense decreased 1.6 percent,in contrast to anincrease of 6.5 percent.Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 0.9 percent, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent.

The real change in private inventories added 0.61 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change inreal GDP, after subtracting 0.13 percentage point from the third-quarter change. Private businessesincreased inventories $6.1 billion in the fourth quarter, following decreases of $9.1 billion in the third quarter and $4.5 billion in the second.

Real final sales of domestic product- GDP less change in private inventories- increased 3.4percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 8.3 percent in the third.


Gross domestic purchases

Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services whereverproduced -- increased 3.7 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 7.0 percent in the third.


Disposition of personal income

Current-dollar personal income increased $70.1 billion(3.1 percent) in the fourth quarter,compared with an increase of $96.6 billion(4.3 percent)in the third.Personal current taxes increased
$68.3 billion,in contrast to a decrease of $64.2 billion.The upturn in taxes primarily reflected the drop-off in advance payments of the child tax credit sent to taxpayers in the third quarter as part of the Jobsand Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003.

Disposable personal income increased $1.7 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increaseof $160.8 billion in the third.Real disposable personal income decreased 0.5 percent, in contrast to anincrease of 6.3 percent.

Personal outlays increased $62.7 billion (3.1 percent) in the fourth quarter, compared with anincrease of $161.8 billion (8.4 percent) in the third. Personal saving -- disposable personal income lesspersonal outlays -- was $127.2 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with $188.1 billion in the third.The personal saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income decreased from 2.3percent in the third quarter to 1.5 percent in the fourth.


Current-dollar GDP

Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 5.1percent, or $139.3 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $11,246.3 billion. In the third quarter,current-dollar GDP increased 10.0 percent, or $260.3 billion.


2003 GDP

Real GDP increased 3.1 percent in 2003 (that is, from the 2002 annual level to the 2003 annuallevel), compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in 2002.

The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in 2003 were personal consumptionexpenditures (PCE), federal government spending, equipment and software, and residential fixedinvestment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased in 2003.

The acceleration in real GDP in 2003 primarily reflected an upturn in equipment and software, asmaller decrease in nonresidential structures, and an upturn in exports that were partly offset by adownturn in private inventory investment.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.9 percent in 2003, compared with anincrease of 1.4 percent in 2002.

Current-dollar GDP increased 4.8 percent, or $503.1 billion, in 2003. Current-dollar GDPincreased 3.8 percent, or $380.0 billion, in 2002.

During 2003 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2002 to the fourth quarter of 2003), realGDP increased 4.3 percent. Real GDP increased 2.8 percent during 2002. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.6 percent during 2003, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent during2002.


BOX
Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical notethat is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed"Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site.In the middle of each month, an analysis of the current quarterly estimates of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site;click on Survey of Current Business, "Business Situation."

[swinney]

1. Clinton GDP

averaged 4.0

[papau]

3. Those were the days, my friend - we thought they would never end!

:-)

[Frodo]

5. 3.7% to be more precise.

With 2.6% inflation (pretty impressive, but not better than the current numbers of around 2%)

[lancdem]

2. And that was skewed by the 8.2 percent in the third quarter

[Frodo]

4. In short? Yes. Or rather - the economy won't hurt him unless it gets worse

We'll have to beat him some other way.

Clintons first four year? 2.7% 4% 2.7% 3.6%

That's right, the year before he ran for re-election he produced GDP growth of 2.7% - less than inflation of about 2.8%.

So, yes, GDP growth of 3.1% (with inflation at 1.5%?) IS good enough to re-elected (or in this case "elect") a President. Clinton certainly didn't face the economy as a major stumbling block in '96

Clinton's '96 run was in a year with (not necessarily all evident at the time of the election) 3.6% GDP growth over 2.9% inflation. The current economist forecast of 4.25% and inflation under 2% can't be spun as too sub-standard.

The unemployment numbers should be a different story, but will still need to be explained - since the top-end numbers are virtually identical for '95-'96 and '03-'04

[papau]

6. Growth numbers are deflated - but your point of 2.7 vs 3.1 is well taken

the numbers will not defeat him -

but the lack of jobs will hurt him.

(by deflate I mean the "2.7% in Clinton's 3rd year" is 5.6% in end of year dollars before removal of effect of inflation - and is only 2.7 after you remove the effect of inflation)

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
3.3 2.7 4.0 2.5 3.7 4.5 4.2 4.5 3.7 0.5 2.2

The election was in 92 - so Clinton's GDP years are 1993 to 2000 - and the year before the 96 election would be 95 - which is a growth of only 2.5!

By the way - Bush revised the Clinton year results to increase Dad's results and decrease Clinton's results! - not by enough to make your point invalid - but I found it interesting that like a dictator 2000 years BC, he tries to make folk forget the fellow before him accomplished anything!