"What Recovery? Green Shoots turning into Brown Weeds" (posted Ritholtz site)

[KoKo]

http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/what-recovery-green-shoots-turning-brown-weeds

What Recovery? Green Shoots turning into Brown Weeds
Submitted by midtowng on Thu, 07/09/2009 - 14:00.

Some Green Shoots supporters have declared that the bottom is in. They point towards various short-term trends, and if you don't look too close, it appears to support their cause.
The Green Shoots supporters accuse the Brown Weeds advocates of using charts that are too long, and thus miss the recent movements.

Therefore I've decided to dig up my own charts, looking at just the last month.

CHART

The stock market, supposedly the most "forward-looking" of indexes, has been looking rather sickly during the past month. If you were taking votes, the stock market has given the near future a "thumbs down" for the economy.

CHART

The Baltic Dry Index, the global measure of shipping goods around the world, is also falling. While this is more of an indicator of the global economy, rather than the domestic economy, it nevertheless effects all of us.

On a more domestic indicator, rail freight was down 19.7% in the last month. Why does that matter to you?

“Whenever Americans grow something, eat something, mine something, make something, turn on a light, or get dressed, freight railroads are probably involved somewhere along the line,” said AAR Senior Vice President John T. Gray. “Unfortunately, right now there’s not enough mining , manufacturing and buying going on. So railroads, like most other business sectors, are suffering because of it.”

The unemployment initial claims report came out today, and the headline sounded positive.

(Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest since January, as early automotive plant closures altered the timing of layoffs that typically happen at this time of year.

Initial jobless claims fell by 52,000 to 565,000, a lower level than forecast, in the week ended July 4, from a revised 617,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Meanwhile, the number of people collecting unemployment insurance jumped to a record in the prior week.

Boy, once you get past the headline that sounds absolutely gloomy.

But, wait. What did it say about early automotive plan closures?
It never occurred to me before that the unemployment initial claims numbers would be seasonally adjusted. After all, what does a seasonally adjusted pink slip look like? Can a person only lose their job during months that start with a "J" or an "M"? Obviously the real numbers are unadjusted, while the seasonal numbers are meant to be put "into context".

MORE...with CHARTS and WONKY STUFF at.......
http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/what-recovery-green-shoots-turning-brown-weeds