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girl gone mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-29-09 05:42 PM
Original message
A Longer, Deeper Recession Looms
http://www.hamsayeh.net/hamsayehnet_iran-international%20news684.htm">A Longer, Deeper Recession Looms
By DAVE LINDORFF - Counterpunch


If you google “recession easing,” you will find articles all the way back to April quoting Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke as saying that the recession is easing, and that the economy is “improving modestly.” Newspapers too, on their own, have written rosy-tinged stories about how things are bad but getting better.

Spins get put on every hint of good news, as when last month “only” 11,000 jobs were lost (a story that was quickly followed by an “unexpected” jump in new unemployment claims by 474,000 in early December.)

What didn’t get widely reported was a report by the Association of Financial Professionals, a trade association that includes CFOs, treasurers, comptrollers, and risk managers of mid-sized and large corporations, which asked over 1000 of these executives the question: “When do you expect your company to begin hiring again?”

The answer tells you all you need to know about the depth of the current economic crisis, and blows all the media and government happy talk out of the water.

This Outlook Survey by the APF, which was funded by Wells Fargo Bank, shows that 26 percent of executives expect to see their company payrolls continue to shrink in 2010, while 46% more expect employoment to stay at current low levels. Put another way,only 25% of companies surveyed expect to return to pre-recession hiring levels in 2011, while 32% don’t expect a hiring rebound until 2012. And fully 30% “do not expect their organizations ever to return their payrolls to pre-recessionary levels.”

http://www.hamsayeh.net/hamsayehnet_iran-international%20news684.htm">more...
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-29-09 05:49 PM
Response to Original message
1. Journalists writing about economics = bad.
"Spins get put on every hint of good news, as when last month “only” 11,000 jobs were lost (a story that was quickly followed by an “unexpected” jump in new unemployment claims by 474,000 in early December.)"

Anyone who is familiar with the two different data sets and what they represent know that this is total bunk to "analyze" employment in this fashion. The author shot his credibility entire by making this statement.
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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-29-09 06:03 PM
Response to Original message
2. 1/2 of getting back on the right track is psychological consumer sentiment......
hard to get to with the excessive speculations of gloom and doom.


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girl gone mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-29-09 06:09 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. I guess reality has a gloomy bias.
:shrug:
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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-29-09 06:47 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. Actually, to a degree, it is quite subjective.
Edited on Tue Dec-29-09 06:49 PM by FrenchieCat
Consumer confidence extends rise in December, but still weak
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091229/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy

"The index, which hit a historic low of 25.3 in February, had enjoyed a three-month climb from March through May, fueled by signs that the economy might be stabilizing."

When consumer confidence goes up.. so does business confidence.
Then expansion and rehiring (the lagging indicator) steps up.

This looks like we could be well into a rehiring phase by the 2010 elections.

And that is how I'm gonna proceed, because I want to win, not lose in 2010...
cause the reason that I'm into politics is to achieve progress,
not to allow the other team to win and then fuck up the country
that much more. I'll let the Republicans be the party of Doom;
they are so good at it, they certainly don't need any help from me....

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Mojorabbit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-29-09 08:45 PM
Response to Reply #5
12. Almost every person we know who has anything
to do with construction, cabinet making, furniture, etc is out of work and in foreclosure. There is no work out there. My BIL who used to turn down work as an owner of a small electric company employing ten electricians wiring subdivisions is trying to find side jobs and has let go all his employees and there is no work and they are losing their house. These people are my age, early and mid 50's and will not find employment anywhere I would wager. No amt of confidence will fix this problem.
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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-29-09 07:04 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. and....
Employers see uptick in hiring in 2010
By Ellen Wulfhorst

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. employers expect to hire more new workers in 2010 than they did in 2009, a sign the U.S. recession may be easing its grip, research showed on Tuesday.

One-fifth of employers plan to add full-time, permanent employees next year, up from 14 percent in 2009, according to CareerBuilder.com, an online jobs site that surveyed more than 2,700 hiring managers and human resource professionals.

Just 9 percent said they plan to cut head count in 2010, down from 16 percent in 2009, according to the nationwide survey.

"There's definitely an uptick. The number of employers who say they're going to add full-time workers is up from last year, and that is very good news," said Michael Erwin, senior career advisor at CareerBuilder.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091229/us_nm/us_workplace_hiring
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girl gone mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-29-09 07:13 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. You can't wish away cold, hard economic data.
A survey at an online job search site is obviously going to skew to companies that are hiring. If they weren't, why would they have need of "careerbuilder"?

This is precisely the kind of spin that the author in the OP is referring to.
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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-29-09 07:17 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Like I said......
Edited on Tue Dec-29-09 07:26 PM by FrenchieCat
You can wish and pray and interpret data that is speculative at best,
and do what you're doing.

But I'll do what I do, which is to look at the glass as 1/2 full,
and the indicators that I see.....

Plus, I'm sure you're helping somebody, somewhere!
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Mithreal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-30-09 08:00 AM
Response to Reply #8
13. Whether employment is plateauing, improving, or worsening
makes a difference in the treatment, no?

Hope for the best and plan for worse.

It is not a glass half full thing.

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Mithreal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-30-09 05:11 PM
Response to Reply #2
16. 1/2 of our problems are our consumer mindset
Edited on Wed Dec-30-09 05:12 PM by Mithreal
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ipaint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-29-09 06:10 PM
Response to Original message
4. Seems to be common sense that all the jobs
created as a result of the housing and credit bubble are gone for good. Credit is gone. Unless someone can inflate a new bubble quickly and give credit away like candy to keep it growing we won't ever see a recovery, just a retraction back to pre-housing bubble recession economy.

Any quasi recovery will be confined to the investor classes. And they seem to be more concerned with hoarding as much as possible before the whole house of cards collapses than they are with creating new good paying jobs for millions of americans.
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Bigmack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-30-09 04:07 PM
Response to Reply #4
15. And so far as I can tell
NO ONE writing about the economy's downs and possible ups is noticing - writing about - the looming energy crisis. Energy is the underpinning of ALL economic activity, last I noticed. And while the global economic downturn may have produced a short term "surplus" of oil, any economic up turn would reverse that. Quickly. Ms Bigmack
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ipaint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-29-09 07:22 PM
Response to Original message
9. 9 million jobs need to be created to get to 6% unemployment.
"It's not just a matter of regaining lost ground: There are also all those young people just entering the labor force to put to work. Simply to keep the jobless rate from rising, the U.S. needs to add a net 150,000 jobs a month. While the slashing of U.S payrolls appears to be slowing, no one expects the economy to generate anywhere near the growth needed to generate that many new jobs anytime soon. That's why Harvard University economist Kenneth Rogoff believes the unemployment rate could peak at over 11%. "The U.S. would need to add a good 11 million jobs to bring the unemployment rate back to where it was at the start of the crisis, and over 9 million jobs just to get unemployment back to 6%," he says. As for the unemployment rates of 5% or lower that the U.S. boasted between 2005 and 2007? "We might not see that for a decade," says Rogoff."

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_49/b4158020729243.htm

Reality isn't doom and gloom or sunshine and rainbows, it just is. The kind of damage done to this economy is likely not over and will take at least a decade to get back to barely adequate for the middle class. It will never recover in my life time for the working class.
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OnceUponTimeOnTheNet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-29-09 07:31 PM
Response to Original message
10. K&R. nt.
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Thickasabrick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-29-09 07:55 PM
Response to Original message
11. K&R.....thanks for posting. Next year is going to be very ugly nt
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wuvuj Donating Member (874 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-30-09 09:55 AM
Response to Original message
14. The Economic Crisis Ends; the Political Crisis Begins?

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article24271.htm


First Iceland, then Ireland, now Greece. Much of Europe is mired in inescapable debt and bankrupt nations, the result of crashing banks, bank bailouts, and soaring unemployment. The U.S. and U.K. watch from a distance, knowing their turn is next.

The European corporate-elite — like their American counterparts — lavished non-stop praise on the “bold yet necessary” decision to bail out the banks; the economy was supposedly saved from “impending collapse.” But every action has an equal but opposite reaction. Bailing out the banks saved the butts of dozens of European bankers, but now millions of workers are about to experience a thundering kick in the ass.

Unbeknownst to most Europeans, the public money that financed the bank bailouts created a massive public debt problem, to be solved by massively slashing public programs that benefit workers and the poor. This amounts to a blatant transfer of billions — maybe trillions of dollars — in public wealth, away from the majority of citizens toward a parasitic crust of bankers.

These “tough decisions” should act as warnings to the American working class, since the U.S. corporate-elite, too, has clear-cut plans for who is to pay for their colossal spending spree on bank giveaways and foreign wars (hint: it’s not them).

The massive amounts of government bonds printed to pay for the global bank bailouts were purchased by global investors (capitalists). For these vultures, government bonds are an excellent investment when the economy crashes, and gambling on stocks turns sour. Now, these investors want to be sure that the heavily indebted governments are able to pay up. And they’re becoming impatient.

A good peek into the mind of the global investor can be seen in any of the three global “credit ratings agencies” — Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s, and Fitch. These corporations give “grades” to debtors — federal governments, corporations, state and city governments, etc. — based on their “credit worthiness.” To have one’s grade lowered means that investors should back off and demand higher interest rates on loans, if loans are made at all. Receiving a “B” instead of an “A” can make the difference between a poor nation being able to build a highway, hospital, or school.

Recently, Moody’s released their notorious “misery index” — the nations that are most sunken in debt and least able to pay it back, requiring that “special measures” be taken to prove to investors that these governments are able to repay their loans. The biggest losers of the misery index were not surprises and included the above-mentioned European countries. However, ranking right behind bankrupt Iceland was the United States: the once-proud super-power is now a debt-ridden carcass, with investor vultures circling overhead.

Moody’s is warning rich investors to be wary of formerly rich countries defaulting on their loans, i.e., going bankrupt.

more.....
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roamer65 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-30-09 07:29 PM
Response to Original message
17. 2010 is going to suck worse than 2009.
I see inflation getting out of control and a regional ME war possibly leading to WW3 in the cards.
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TalkingDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-03-10 04:50 PM
Response to Reply #17
18. Who hasn't seen that coming? It's all over the woo-woo webs. n/t
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