Goldman Makes ‘Call of Decade’ by Promoting BRICs: Chart of Day

[Joanne98]

Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s forecast that Brazil, Russia, India and China would eventually eclipse the Group of Seven countries economically has been described as “the biggest market call of the decade.”

The CHART OF THE DAY shows that stocks in the so-called BRIC countries have risen more than emerging markets as a group since Nov. 30, 2001, when Goldman’s global economics team first assessed their prospects in a study. The comparison is based on MSCI Inc.’s benchmark indexes.

MSCI’s BRIC Index soared 367 percent through yesterday to surpass the 22-country Emerging Markets Index by 134 percentage points, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The MSCI World Index, a gauge of 23 developed markets that is also depicted in the chart, gained only 17 percent during the period.

Jim O’Neill, who still runs the global team, first made the case for the four countries in a paper entitled “Building Better Global Economic BRICs.” The firm elaborated in follow-up reports published in October 2003 and December 2005.

“From where these markets stand today, even after the credit crisis, O’Neill’s original paper is starting to look like a once-in-a-lifetime call,” Joshua M. Brown, the author of the Reformed Broker financial blog, wrote this month. The “call of the decade” description was part of his posting.

Brazil is the best-performing BRIC stock market since November 2001, based on a comparison of MSCI country indexes. India, China and Russia followed, in that order. Each of them rose more than the emerging-market gauge.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=adQVT5VaMAiE&pos=15

:nuke:

Don't you love it when they take our money than bet against us?

[izquierdista]

1. BRICs

That's probably all that's left for the average worker in those countries to eat, after the oligarchs take their cut. I know that Russian pensions, Chinese factory worker wages, and Brazil's aid to favelas is not up 367 percent.

[On the Road]

2. How are They Cheating You and Me?

Whatever else Goldman Sachs is doing, it seems like a good call. The performance of large economies is not something they can manipulate. Goldman made a better call than other investment advisors. I wish all the advice was this good.

[westerebus]

3. Mr O'Niell proves his grasp of the obvious.

Though me thinks the emerging market desks are looking for a little extra juice to prompt those still wary to take that deep cold plunge.

[Joanne98]

4. Yep. Expect Goldman to short .............

[westerebus]

7. Goldman... short...

Hot money looks for what kind of haven when the markets get indigestion?

How many sides of the fence can GS be on at one time?

How's your international stock fund doing by the way? Or do you use an ETF?

Actually, don't answer either question.

Happy New Year!:toast:

[Statistical]

5. ? Only an idiot would think a developed nation like US could keep up with BRIC

BRIC countries are experiencing geometric growth just like Europe and US did during the industrial revolution.

Sorry you feel "conpired against". Here is my recommendation for the next decade, invest in BRIC funds, ETF, or stocks. While we are unlikely to see 400% growth in next decade growth will easily be triple US and Europe.

Any smart investor has at least some % of their investments in foreign investments and BRIC the best place to be.

[Joanne98]

6. What goes up must come down. Here's an ETF to short emerging markets with.

UltraShort MSCI Emerging Mkts ProShares

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=eev

PROSHARES UTLRASHORT(NYSEArca: EEV)
After Hours: 10.92 0.02 (0.18%) 4:32pm ET

Last Trade: 10.90
Trade Time: Dec 31
Change: 0.06 (0.55%)
Prev Close: 10.96
Open: 10.82
Bid: 10.81 x 100
Ask: 11.60 x 200
NAV¹: 11.07
Day's Range: 10.75 - 10.93
52wk Range: 10.62 - 70.67
Volume: 828,300
Avg Vol (3m): 2,420,740
YTD Return (Mkt)²: -74.25%
Net Assets²: 199.33M
P/E (ttm)²: N/A
Yield (ttm)²: NaN%
.

[Statistical]

8. What horrible advice. Yup "only" down 78% in last 12 months.

Not everything that goes up goes down.

The S&P500 was 80pts in 1970s. A decade later the S&P had up and down years but even on its worse year it never broke below 100 again.

An ultra short S&P500 fund from 1970s to 2000s would have lost 99.93% of value.

$10K invested in 1970 would be worth $7 in 2000. Even the two recessions in 2000s would have helped. You would have gained 50% from the low in 2000 bringing the value of your $10K investment to $10 today (or $22 in you timed the market and sold at the lows in March 09).